Alternate Unemployment Charts
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects
current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated
long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official
existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6
unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6
unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest
unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other
marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time
because they cannot find full-time employment.
Unemployment Data Series 
(Subscription required.) View Download Excel CSV File Last Updated: September 6th, 2013
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Fed and Elite vs. Americans and the
World
By Adam English | Tuesday,
September 10th, 2013
Let's get something straight here, considering it came as a bit of a
shock to the politicians and central bankers
from 20 major economic powers...
The Federal Reserve doesn't care about you.
It doesn't care about the American people; it only serves the tiny number of
Americans in the highest circles of the
corporate and political elite.
While there's no question that the Fed has been devoted to propping up
markets for the corporate and political elite,
central bankers were under the
assumption the Fed was committed to working with them to tackle a global issue.
You can imagine their surprise, then, as the Fed has clarified its position
in recent weeks...
The divide became even more apparent as the G-20 meeting was
wrapping up.
This drab communique was released after the two-day forum:
monetary policy settings will continue to be carefully
calibrated
and clearly communicated. We reiterate that excess volatility
of
financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates
can have
adverse implications for economic and financial stability,
as observed
recently in some emerging markets.
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In layman's terms, most of the group of 20 nations
doesn't want any
meaningful changes to worldwide central bank policies.
They
have no
interest in rocking a boat that has risen on a tide of easy
money faster
than it could sink from its own unresolved problems.
But the Fed isn't going to play along with the global central bank
rigging scheme — at least, not the way
it has been and the way
the rest of the world wants.
As Dennis Lockhart, president of the
Atlanta Fed, put it after the
late-August meeting of central bankers in
Jackson
Hole, Wyoming:
"You have to remember that we are a legal creature of
Congress and that
we only have a mandate to concern ourselves with the
interest
of the
United States."
That is absolutely true, though it has hardly been the case so far.
QE International
The Fed's balance sheet has expanded to a whopping $3.65 trillion
by injecting easy money into the markets and banks.
And a disturbing
amount of the easy money the Fed created directly funded overseas
institutions...
Shortly after the Lehman Brothers collapse, the Fed pumped
billions into the U.S. branches of foreign banks.
As Eurozone banks were struggling to
roll over $2 trillion of debts
denominated in U.S. dollars back in
2011, the
Fed came to the rescue
yet again. While the cut-rate currency swaps
from central banks
included Britain, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland, a
lion's
share of the
effort came from the Fed in the form of hundreds of
billions poured
from the U.S. central bank into European banks to
prevent a foreign
credit crunch.
In total, $7.7 trillion was loaned to mega-banks from 2007 to
2009,
according to documents uncovered by Bloomberg News through
a Freedom of Information Act request in 2011.
A vast majority was essentially off the books for a reason: The Fed didn't
want to disclose the massive amount of
support it was giving to mega-banks,
and it didn't want anyone to know the scope of its intervention overseas.
In mid-December 2011, Sen. Lindsey Graham told reporters that Ben
Bernanke himself said the Fed did not have "the
intention or the
uthority" to bail out Europe. The very same week, Helicopter Ben flew
to Europe and increased the size of these credit swap
lines by about
$52 billion.
The Fed didn't want to disclose that it was engaged in a secret
campaign to prop up international banks and
financial institutions and
hand Americans the bill.
Estimates peg the total support given by the Fed to the ECB and foreign
banks at $1.1 trillion.
Trickle Down Markets
Of course, none of this includes how the private market used money
from the Fed.
As money from the Fed magically appears from nowhere and is
pumped into global mega-banks and institutional
investors, it starts freely
flowing around the globe...
One of the problems with dumping a whole
lot of cash into anemic markets
is that they can only absorb so much
before
risk gets completely out of
hand. So big investors and banks started
spreading it around overseas,
and a whole lot of private capital has
been
injected into foreign markets
in recent years.
The Institute of International Finance, essentially a global banking club,
has been keeping track of the trend.
With the Fed breaking ranks with other central banks and discussing an
end to QE, net private capital flows to
emerging markets in 2014 is going
to drop to the lowest level since 2009.
Back in 2009, developed market to emerging market capital flow only
totaled $649 billion. Since then, it has grown to
$1.2 trillion.
As bank lending declined, a massive increase in portfolio investment —
mostly through bonds —
kicked in.
Brazil, India, and Indonesia were some of the largest beneficiaries as the
trickle-down effect between markets
turned into a deluge.
If the Fed tapers and interest rates rise, money will undoubtedly pull out
of emerging markets.
The mere suggestion that the U.S. might taper QE was followed by a 20%
collapse in the Indian rupee. The
Brazilian real and Indonesian rupiah were
hit very hard as well. The dropping currencies drove up local prices,
resulting in slowing
economies.
No wonder the G-20 is trying to keep the Fed pumping money. They are
as hopelessly dependent on it to create the
illusion of healthy economies,
just as the mega-banks have been.
They are ultimately dependent on growth leveraged by you and me,
the American taxpayer.
Lockhart also has some advice for the rest of the world: "Other countries
simply have to take that as a reality and
adjust to us, if that's something
important for their economies."
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Devoted to America, Not Americans
While the Fed has committed itself to a domestic focus, and plans on
abandoning its unlawful international support,
it will undoubtedly
continue to ignore Americans. Just look at how the labor market has
been shaped under the Fed's policies...
Since the recession officially began in
December 2007, there are
5.8 million fewer full-time jobs and 2.8
million
more part-time jobs.
An all-time high of 8.2 million Americans are
working part-time
positions and want full-time jobs, but cannot find
one.
The jobs report releases on Friday just adds fuel to this fire: 169,000 jobs
were added, and the unemployment rate
officially fell to 7.3%...
yet nearly twice as many people — 312,000 Americans — dropped off
of official figures.
The number of people with jobs actually fell 115,000 in August. The proportion
of the U.S. population that had a job
in August was 58.6%, the same as six
months ago.
Virtually all of the gains in the stock markets have gone to institutional
investors; retail investors never fully
returned.
Instead of prompting the Fed to
reevaluate how it is helping Americans, the
gains in stock markets and
recent job
reports are just going to reinforce the
status quo. It will also be used
as false proof that the economy is slowly
getting better for hard-hit
Americans.
If the BLS and Fed referred to a far more
accurate unemployment estimate
that included all unemployed, marginally
attached workers plus those who
work part-time for economic reasons,
more than 1 in 8 Americans are not
being helped by the Fed's obscenely
expensive
programs.
Add in long-term discouraged workers for an even better estimate
(as Shadowstats.com does) and nearly 1 of 4 Americans is
unemployed:
Lockhart was absolutely correct when he said that the Fed is a legal
creature of Congress, and it is mandated to
exclusively serve the interests
of the United States.
But let's be clear on one thing: He is talking about the United States
government, not the citizens of the United
States.
The Fed has clarified its position, and the evidence supports it: The Fed is
only in place to serve the elite
Americans who run mega-banks and large
corporations.
Only the people benefiting from cronyism and the revolving door have
any sway.
For a couple years there, the interests of the Fed's masters aligned
with the G-20, and so member nations
enjoyed the perks of unprecedented
intervention by the world's most influential financial institution...
Now they will have to fend on their own like the vast majority of
Americans. The mercenary nature of the "powers that
be" are apparent
once again.
On behalf of the struggling masses the U.S. government technically
represents, let me be the first to
welcome the member nations of the
G-20 to the Outside.
Take Care,
Adam English
Adam's editorial talents and analysis drew the attention of senior editors at Outsider Club,
which he joined in mid-2012.
While he has acquired years of hands-on experience in the editorial room
by working side by side with ex-brokers, options floor traders, and
financial
advisors, he is acutely aware of the challenges faced by retail
investors after starting at the ground floor in the financial publishing
field. For
more on Adam, check out his editor's page.
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Outside the Numbers
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