Senin, 24 Juli 2017

.......For the U.S., it’s driven by a need to protect people on our side of the civil war and to keep Iranian forces out of southwest Syria. It is also a potential model for peace in the rest of the country. Now, in the middle of this, we defund the program to train rebel forces in Jordan and Turkey. Will we not allow rebels to defend themselves? It seems to be about limiting offensive actions by our proxies against the regime, because now those fighters will not be effective....??>>>... It’s a formula for dealing with the fact that neither the regime nor the opposition has forces to take all Syrian territory. It’s a test. I’m skeptical because the Russians are heavily invested in the regime. It’s a Gordian knot...??>> .... The Russians have multiple opinions on Syria. If you talk to their foreign affairs ministry, you hear talk of reasonable negotiations to push for diplomatic solution through the United Nations Security Council. If you talk with the defense ministry, you get a much different and more bellicose answer. And these two centers meet at the Kremlin. I think the Russians know they ultimately cannot shoot their way out of Syria completely. They want a deal, but the deal they want isn’t just about Syria. For them, it’s related to U.S. sanctions and their annexation of Crimea specifically. They like to horse trade, and we do not...>> ....Maybe, but the question is whether the U.S. would pay the price of allowing Putin his land grabs in Ukraine in exchange for what we want in Syria.....>> ....So, the Islamic State is on its last legs in its self-declared capital of Raqqa in Syria. But even with its “caliphate” destroyed it will live on. And we have a plethora of rebel groups as well as Iran-backed Hezbollah in the mix. What happens next? AT: If things continue to go as they are, with the Iran-backed Assad regime filling up the vacuum in Syria and the same forces doing that in Iraq, can you imagine what that will look like in a year? It will be a dramatically transformed space....>> ....In fact, it appears that the military was not consulted this time around. On Monday, BuzzFeed News reported that top Pentagon officials were not involved in the planning or briefed on their role in the arrangement. A military officer confirmed to FP that the Pentagon and Centcom have very little information about the proposed cease-fire and said, “We’re getting to that level of understanding this week.” American aircraft rarely operate in southwestern Syria, but “we’ll certainly respect the cease-fire,” the officer said, adding that the U.S. military hasn’t decided if it would fly combat air patrols to enforce any agreement...>> ...sekali lagi mari kita lupakan aliran apa dan mazhab apa yang sedang bertarung karena sebagaimana yang telah saya jabarkan di atas, Arab Spring adalah akumulasi dari konflik ekonomi dan politik yang meledak disebabkan oleh sosial media.....>> ...Jadi dari gambaran diatas jelas bahwa fenomena Arab Spring bukanlah sesuatu yang dipicu oleh urusan agama apalagi merupakan perang antar mazhab, sekali lagi bukan. pemicu utamanya adalah rasa frustasi atas himpitan ekonomi yang di perparah oleh himpitan politis dari para diktator timur tengah yang mengekang kebebasan berekspresi. Bisa disaksikan sendiri mayoritas negara yang mengalami Arab Spring adalah negara-negara timur tengah yang ekonominya kurang maju kecuali Libya....>> ...Mesir, kekuasaan Husni Mubarak yang merupakan diktator ex-militer digantikan oleh pemerintahan Muhammad Mursi yang merupakan calon usungan Ikhwanul Muslimin yang terpilih secara demokratis, Mursi digulingkan saat pemerintahannya baru seumur satu tahun lebih sedikit dan digantikan oleh seorang diktator ex militer lagi, Abdel fatah Al-sisi. Penggulingan Mursi menimbulkan korban ribuan orang, sungguh sangat sangat mengerikan...>> ....Arab spring tidak berlangsung mulus, Tunisia sejauh ini berhasil mempertahankan demokrasi hasil dari proses transisi tersebut. Libya yang tadinya merupakan negeri yang aman dan kaya menjadi jatuh kedalam jurang perang saudara. Yaman juga jatuh kedalam perang saudara yang diperparah dengan intervensi negara negara teluk seperti Saudi Arabia, Uni Emirates dan lain lain. ...>> ...Apa yang terjadi di tahun 2011? Twitter, Facebook dan berbagai media sosial menjadikan gerakan penggulingan terhadap beberapa penguasa absolut timur tengah menjadi massif dan telah berhasi merontokkan kekuasaan beberapa pemimpin di timur tengah yaitu Ben Ali dari Tunisia, Khadafi dari Libya, Husni Mubarak dari Mesir dan Ali Abdullah Saleh dari Yaman. Di beberapa negara lain protes tidak berlangsung penuh kekerasan dan beberapa “hanya” menghasilkan reformasi di pemerintahan....>> ....Hai orang-orang yang beriman hendaklah kamu jadi orang-orang yang selalu menegakkan (kebenaran) karena Allah, menjadi saksi dengan adil. dan janganlah sekali-kali kebencianmu terhadap sesuatu kaum, mendorong kamu untuk berlaku tidak adil. Berlaku adillah, karena adil itu lebih dekat kepada takwa. dan bertakwalah kepada Allah, sesungguhnya Allah Maha mengetahui apa yang kamu kerjakan. (QS Al-Maaidah: 8) ...>> ....Solusi yang terbaik adalah semua pihak segera meletakkan senjata dan saling bahu membahu membangun kembali negara yang sudah hancur porak poranda. tetapi kita tahu otak manusia tidak bekerja seperti itu. sulit, sangat sulit karena milyaran, mungkin trilyunan dollar telah dikucurkan untuk “percaturan” ini sehingga menyerah kalah bukanlah pilihan. berbagai pihak sudah habis habisan dalam berusaha merebut kemenangan di Suriah. di dalam benak para pihak yang terlibat dalam konflik ini pastilah tertanam fikiran : “aku tidak sampai sejauh ini hanya untuk sampai sejauh ini”, KAMI HARUS MENANG...>>

Middle East

As Syria Crumbles, Only Iran Is a Sure Winner

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-23/as-syria-crumbles-only-iran-is-a-sure-winner

A Q&A with Andrew Tabler, who spent years living under the Assad regime.
14
It's complicated.
Photographer: Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images
Six years. Half a million dead. Many millions displaced. Untold thousands tortured and killed.
The Syrian civil war is the worst humanitarian disaster of our young century, and would have been high on the list of the last one. But unlike the great world wars of the past, this relatively local conflict seems to have no imaginable solution, diplomatic or military. Even with the primary Western concern -- the destruction of the Islamic State -- within sight, we have to acknowledge that the aftermath may be even worse for Syria, the Middle East and the rest of the globe. The only certainty: much more destruction, suffering and death.

Sorry for glooming up your weekend.

In great conflagrations, however, the future can often be perceived in the past. Syria – like Iraq, Jordan and the Arab Gulf states -- was always a fake construct, the result of a passel of British and French mapmakers anticipating the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, aka the Sick Man of Europe. Much of the problem, actually, comes from that pejorative -- the Middle East is not Europe, although it has some echoes of the Europe of the 30 Years' War. Faith, ambition, the struggle for nationhood -- it is a combustible mix, and it’s the common man and woman who inevitably pay the price.

Still, even insuperable problems need figuring out, so this week I talked to somebody who is particularly suited to the subject. Andrew Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Peace, and has a sterling resume and publishing history as a top authority on the region. More to the point here, he spent the better part of seven years living in Syria under the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his even more ruthless father, Hafez. Andrew and I served on a panel this week at the Aspen Institute’s Security Forum (shameless plug: video available here) and then had a chat after. Here is a lightly edited account of the conversation.

Tobin Harshaw: OK, let’s start at the beginning. I don’t mean President Barack Obama’s abandonment of his “red line” on chemical weapons, or the Arab Spring, or when Bashar al-Assad took over from his father. I’m talking about the Sykes-Picot agreement, the rather arbitrary division of the Middle East by Britain and France a century ago. What can inglorious history tell us about today?

Andrew Tabler: Empires have a lot of problems -- they tax you, haul your young people of to wars you don’t want to fight, etc. But the Ottomans at least gave the locals a lot of autonomy. It worked until the empire was headed to collapse. For example, you had areas where a village of Shiite Muslims could be a mile away from a Christian village, but they had distinct identities and little in common. It’s very hard to take that literal mosaic of sects and cultures and turn it into a nation-state.

TH: How do these fake borders bedevil us today?

AT: Syria never made sense even before World War I, never added up. On reason was this mosaic -- there was no Syrian identity. That made one of the most unstable mandates of the colonial age, and after World War II it was arguably the most unstable country in the world. There were seven or eight coups, it ceased to exist for three years when it joined with Gamel Abdel Nasser’s Egypt to form the United Arab Republic. Syria was always unstable, and so what happened was when Hafez al-Assad took power in 1970 he used the national emergency of domestic tumult and declared emergency law that allowed his dictatorship. To justify it, he made the opposition to Israel the centerpiece. This idea that they were fighting Israel was used to prop up one of the most tyrannical systems in the world. That caused them to be rigid and unable to react to reforms that could have enabled them to avoid the tumult of 2011.

TH: They aren’t the only ones to use Israel as an excuse for repressive rule.
AT: Yes, the Palestinian question, as it is called, has not been solved. Nasser liked to say of it, “No voice louder than the cry of battle.”
TH: What does that mean?
AT: It means more in Arabic, because the word for “voice” and “vote” are derived from the same root. So it means we are in a state of war and we will come back to these other decisions of governance later, but for now we are fighting and that justifies a state of emergency.

TH: So, how does Bashar al-Assad differ from his father?

AT: Hafez was a brutal man, and hard to deal with. But he built his regime and controlled it and had a plan. Bashar has been all over the place. He promises a lot but doesn’t deliver. The de-escalation agreement reached between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the southwestern corner of the country is a test case.

TH: In what way?

AT: For the U.S., it’s driven by a need to protect people on our side of the civil war and to keep Iranian forces out of southwest Syria. It is also a potential model for peace in the rest of the country. Now, in the middle of this, we defund the program to train rebel forces in Jordan and Turkey. Will we not allow rebels to defend themselves? It seems to be about limiting offensive actions by our proxies against the regime, because now those fighters will not be effective.
TH: Is the de-escalation zone a model for how we pacify the whole or do we want some sort of a grand bargain?

AT: It’s a formula for dealing with the fact that neither the regime nor the opposition has forces to take all Syrian territory. It’s a test. I’m skeptical because the Russians are heavily invested in the regime. It’s a Gordian knot.

TH: One assumes that cutting support for the rebels is of a piece with negotiating with Russia, which wants Assad to keep control of at least a large part of post-war Syria. What is Putin’s endgame?

AT: The Russians have multiple opinions on Syria. If you talk to their foreign affairs ministry, you hear talk of reasonable negotiations to push for diplomatic solution through the United Nations Security Council. If you talk with the defense ministry, you get a much different and more bellicose answer. And these two centers meet at the Kremlin. I think the Russians know they ultimately cannot shoot their way out of Syria completely. They want a deal, but the deal they want isn’t just about Syria. For them, it’s related to U.S. sanctions and their annexation of Crimea specifically. They like to horse trade, and we do not.

TH: Do you think Putin would cut Assad loose in this horse trading?
AT: Maybe, but the question is whether the U.S. would pay the price of allowing Putin his land grabs in Ukraine in exchange for what we want in Syria.
TH: So, the Islamic State is on its last legs in its self-declared capital of Raqqa in Syria. But even with its “caliphate” destroyed it will live on. And we have a plethora of rebel groups as well as Iran-backed Hezbollah in the mix. What happens next?
AT: If things continue to go as they are, with the Iran-backed Assad regime filling up the vacuum in Syria and the same forces doing that in Iraq, can you imagine what that will look like in a year? It will be a dramatically transformed space.
TH: With Iran the big winner?
AT: The Shiite Crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean we have been talking about and fearing for decades is going to be formed in front of us. I cannot see Syria’s neighbors and our allies taking that lying down. The question is, what will they do?
TH: Is there anything they can do?
AT: The easy thing is to open their borders and allow arms to go to the insurgency, because there is always an insurgency in the Euphrates Valley. We need to get them to be better at the proxy game -- meaning they need to look at what the Iranians are doing and learn from it. They need to create sub-state actors, not non-state actors, which is how the Iranians have been able to move the needle substantially.
TH: Do we have those proxy forces available?
AT: No, it one the great challenges for the Sunni nations. In these broken states, the only way to assure your interests is through forces you can control and turn on and off. They don’t have any. It’s a major constraint on our policy so far.
Sunniism today reminds me of a bit of the Catholic Church before the Jesuits -- you need to have a response to a movement that is challenging your followers. One way to view it is through European history, the 30 Years War. But that was a long time ago for us; in the Middle East it’s still happening.
TH: So you think that although the Russians have kept Assad in business, the Iranians are the one who are going to reap the benefit?
AT: Correct. Unless somehow this can be reversed. I’m skeptical.
TH: Are the Russians and Iranians natural allies at this point?
AT: Yes, in Syria and the entire Middle East. What this allows the Iranians to do is cut off Turkey and the Arabs to take on Israel. For the Russians it’s about containing Turkey as well, but also about projecting their power in the region. They don’t have good relations with the Arabs.
But in the end, a lot of this is about messing up U.S. policies in the Middle East.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
Exclusive

Secret Details of Trump-Putin 

Syria Cease-fire 

Focus on Iranian Proxies

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/11/exclusive-trump-putin-ceasefire-agreement-focuses-on-iranian-backed-fighters-middle-east/

Secret Details of Trump-Putin Syria Cease-fire Focus on Iranian Proxies
A confidential U.S.-Russian cease-fire agreement for southwestern Syria that went into effect Sunday calls for barring Iranian-backed foreign fighters from a strategic stretch of Syrian territory near the borders of Israel and Jordan, according to three diplomatic sources.
President Donald Trump hailed it as an important agreement that would serve to save lives. But few details of the accord have been made public.
Trending Articles

Poland Sets Stage for EU Standoff

A contentious overhaul of the country’s judiciary could see Brussels invoke the “nuclear option.”

 

U.S. Defense Department officials — who would have responsibility for monitoring the agreement — appeared to be in the dark about the pact’s fine print.
The pact is aimed at addressing demands by Israel and Jordan — the latter is a party to the agreement — that Iranian forces and their proxies, including Hezbollah, not be permitted near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which separates Syria from Israel, or along the Jordanian border.
But former U.S. diplomats and observers question whether the agreement is truly enforceable, expressing doubts that Russia could act as a reliable guarantor for a cease-fire involving the Syrian regime, Iran, and its proxies.
“The question is, ‘Who is going to enforce that?’ Is Russia going to take on the responsibility for telling Iran what to do?” said Gerald Feierstein, a veteran U.S. diplomat who retired last year, noting that a peace deal without Iranian buy-in is untenable. “Iranians are much closer to Assad’s position on the way forward in Syria than the Russians are.”
And they have far more leverage. “It’s the Iranians and their proxies who are doing a bulk of the fighting inside Syria,” he told Foreign Policy.
With Iran in the driver’s seat, seasoned U.S. diplomats expressed doubts that the Kremlin could deliver on its promises. “The key to the survival of the Assad regime is Iran, not Russia,” said Fred Hof, a former State Department special advisor for transition in Syria. “Are the Russians trying to rush this [agreement] through without a firm understanding with the regime and without clear understanding of what the ‘or else’ is?”
Since May, the Russians have failed to persuade Iranian-backed militia groups or the Syrian regime to respect a “deconfliction zone” that American commanders had declared near a U.S. outpost in southeastern Syria. Although U.S. officers informed their Russian counterparts about the zone around Tanf, Iranian-backed militias and Syrian fighter jets ignored the warning and moved toward U.S. special operations forces and their Syrian Kurdish and Arab allies. As a result, U.S. aircraft shot down a Syrian fighter jet and an Iranian-made drone and struck Iranian-backed militias in the area.
Given the track record so far, “Why should we believe that it will be different under this cease-fire?” one congressional staffer asked.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Bahram Qasemi, reacted coolly to the pact, saying it contained some “ambiguities” and that “no agreement would be successful without taking the realities on the ground into account.”
“Iran is seeking Syria’s sovereignty and security so a cease-fire cannot be limited to a certain location,” Qasemi was quoted saying by Tasnim News Agency.
Not everyone was so pessimistic. Andrew Tabler, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said southwestern Syria’s relative calm — and Washington’s continued influence among U.S.-trained opposition factions fighting President Bashar al-Assad — make it a natural proving ground for U.S. and Russian cooperation.
If successful, such cooperation could be employed in other parts of the country. “I think it’s worth a try,” Tabler said. “If we’re going to test something, this is a good place to test it.”
The pact — detailed in a Memorandum of Principle for De-escalation in Southern Syria — established a cease-fire between Syrian government forces and armed opposition groups that came into force on Sunday. It calls for transforming southern Syria below Quneitra and Suwayda into an exclusion zone for fighters of “non-Syrian origin,” including Iranian troops, their proxies, and fighters linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have a limited presence in the area.
“This could be designed mainly to reassure the Israelis that these elements would not be operating in proximity to the Golan Heights,” said Hof, who is now at the Atlantic Council.
The accord calls for maintaining existing governance and security arrangements in opposition-held areas in southwestern Syria, a provision aimed at dissuading Syrian government forces from retaking territory in the area. But some observers said the arrangement could also help turn a de facto partition of southern Syria into a permanent one. “This entrenches Syria’s partition further,” one diplomatic observer said.
The accord also calls for the unimpeded access for humanitarian aid workers and for the creation of conditions for the return of refugees from southwestern Syria. Jordan has received more than 650,000 registered Syrian refugees since the conflict began more than six years ago.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Monday the establishment of a monitoring center in Jordan, but State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert declined to confirm any specifics. “Mr. Lavrov likes to talk a lot,” she said.
A State Department official told FP that the United States and Russia are still trying to work out the details of the pact, “including how to monitor the cease-fire, the rules that would govern the southwest de-escalation area, and the presence of monitors.”
“We are looking at various options for the monitoring arrangement in which information can be exchanged and violations resolved,” the official said.
When asked if she was optimistic about the cease-fire holding, Nauert demurred. “Perhaps optimism is too strong a word. But I think it is promising, in a certain sense, we have been able to get the cease-fire underway,” she said.
The White House did not respond to queries about the cease-fire deal.
The agreement — finalized following Trump’s recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin — calls for more coordination among the former Cold War superpowers in the fight against terrorists in Syria. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that the pact may serve as a model for further cooperation in northern Syria and provides the “first indication of the U.S. and Russia being able to work together in Syria.”
It also marked a recognition by Moscow that a separate effort to negotiate a cease-fire in Astana, Kazakhstan, with Iran and Turkey was foundering. On May 4, the three powers signed an agreement to establish four so-called “de-escalation zones” throughout Syria. But they have been unable to agree on whose forces would monitor those cease-fires.
“Not necessarily a brilliant deal for the Russians,” one diplomatic source said. “I suspect that after the humiliating failure of Astana, Putin needed a ‘success’ to announce and divert attention from Astana failure.”
The cease-fire would be overseen by officials from the United States, Russia, and Jordan at a monitoring cell in Amman, Jordan. Israel is not a formal party to the pact but has been actively involved behind the scenes in the discussions leading up to the agreement.
Hof said the provision for a joint monitoring center resembles a plan put forward by former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to coordinate efforts to confront extremists in northwestern Syria. “[U.S. Central Command] was very, very, very skeptical about that when it was first proposed,” Hof said. “They feared being hoodwinked by the Russians into some kind of attack on an urban area that would produce massive civilian casualties.”
In fact, it appears that the military was not consulted this time around. On Monday, BuzzFeed News reported that top Pentagon officials were not involved in the planning or briefed on their role in the arrangement.
A military officer confirmed to FP that the Pentagon and Centcom have very little information about the proposed cease-fire and said, “We’re getting to that level of understanding this week.”
American aircraft rarely operate in southwestern Syria, but “we’ll certainly respect the cease-fire,” the officer said, adding that the U.S. military hasn’t decided if it would fly combat air patrols to enforce any agreement.
The more likely situation would see a “remote” monitoring agreement, where U.S. military personnel would sit together with Russian officers at the proposed facility in Amman, the officer said, though “we have to figure out exactly what it means, and we have to figure out what the terms of reference are between the Russians and us and if the Syrians are even a party to it.”
U.S. troops won’t be working directly with Iranians or Syrians, however. “Our operating assumption is if the Iranians and Syrians will want to be informed, the Russians are going to be the intermediary on all things,” the officer said.
“The United States remains committed to defeating ISIS, helping to end the conflict in Syria, reducing suffering, and enabling people to return to their homes,” Trump’s national security advisor, H.R. McMaster, said last Friday, referring to the Islamic State. “This agreement is an important step toward these common goals.”
But questions lingered about its workability.
The region is occupied by several armed opposition groups backed by the United States, Turkey, Jordan, and Persian Gulf states and also includes small pockets of forces loyal to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The United States exercises little influence over such extremist groups, making them potential spoilers.
On July 9, Trump tweeted that the Syrian cease-fire seems to be holding. For Moscow, the pact placed Putin in the role of peacemaker, even as Russia continued to provide air support for Syrian offensive operations.
“This is a sop for Russia,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria scholar at the University of Oklahoma. “The Americans can’t police this situation.”
Photo credit: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images
Like this article? Read an unlimited amount of articles, plus access to our entire 46-year printed archive, the FP App, and the FP Insights Tool when you subscribe to FP Premium for 20% off!
Click here to register or log in


Syrian Cease-Fire Is 

a Baby Step Toward Peace

A fragile truce in the southwest is a good omen for U.S. interests.
7
War's still just a shot away.
Photographer: Mohamad Abazeed/AFP/Getty Images
After years of horrific fighting in Syria -- including several failed cease-fires -- it's hard to get too excited about a limited agreement to stop hostilities in a tiny corner of the country. Yet the modest "de-escalation" deal in Syria's southwest is a promising sign.

Islamic State is not yet defeated. But the cease-fire, reached by Jordan, Russia and the U.S., is an indication that the end of that fight is near, as all sides are beginning to jockey for position in the next stage of the Syrian civil war.

The halt in the fighting in parts of three provinces, reached earlier this month, seems to be mostly holding. The next steps of the deal, which reportedly include the departure of non-Syrian fighters, providing humanitarian aid to civilians, and setting up a monitoring center in Jordan, are pending.

Still, what has already been achieved is notable. Russia -- Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's most powerful backer -- has cut an independent deal with the U.S. that will not just give rebel troops a respite but also help protect Israel and Jordan, two of America's most important Middle East allies. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have hammered out the truce without giving the Syrian regime or its Iranian patrons a say. And this despite the fact that Iranian-backed militias had been making military inroads in southern Syria.
The area covered in the de-escalation agreement includes the rebel stronghold of Deraa Province, which is within 50 miles of the Jordanian capital of Amman and is adjacent to the Golan Heights, which Israel has considered a crucial buffer zone since conquering it in the 1967 war. The deal will be help keep Iran and its proxies from gaining too close a foothold to Israel and Jordan.
A piecemeal approach to cease-fires has its downsides. It may undermine the fitful negotiations to end the civil war that are now taking place in Kazakhstan, and the Assad regime may use this opportunity to strategically reposition forces at other battlefronts (the Syrians seem to have an eye on the oil-rich Euphrates River Valley near the Iraq border). And the deal relies on the questionable assumption that the Russians will be able to rein in aggression by the Syrian army its allies.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson noted that the pact is the "first indication of the U.S. and Russia being able to work together in Syria." As distasteful as it sounds, cooperation with the Kremlin may be the best hope for an enduring political solution to the civil war -- and for ensuring that Islamic State won't rise again.

To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg View’s editorials: David Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net .

Andrew J. Tabler

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/view/tabler-andrew-j

Martin J. Gross Fellow
Tel: 202-230-9550 (media inquiries only) 202-452-0650 (all other inquiries)
press@washingtoninstitute.org
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.

Areas of Expertise


Biography

Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Mr. Tabler achieved unparalleled long-term access to Bashar al-Assad's Syria. During fourteen years of residence in the Middle East, Mr. Tabler served as co-founder and editor-in-chief of Syria Today, Syria's first private-sector English-language magazine; as a consultant on U.S.-Syria relations for the International Crisis Group (2008); and as a fellow of the Institute of Current World Affairs (2005-2007), writing on Syrian, Lebanese, and Middle Eastern affairs. Following his graduate work in Cairo, Egypt, Mr. Tabler held editorships with the Middle East Times and Cairo Times, where he focused on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations, before becoming senior editor and director of editorial for the Oxford Business Group (OBG). In 2001, Mr. Tabler personally oversaw with OBG the first comprehensive English-language report on Syria in more than thirty years. Mr. Tabler has lived, worked and studied extensively in Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.
Mr. Tabler has interviewed Syrian first lady Asma al-Assad, the late Israeli president Shimon Peres, the late Palestinian president Yasser Arafat, slain Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, and former Lebanese prime ministers Fouad Siniora and Saad Hariri. His articles and opinion pieces on Middle East affairs and U.S. foreign policy have appeared in the New York Times, the New York Times Magazine, the International Herald Tribune, Newsweek, Foreign Policy, and Foreign Affairs. He has also appeared in interviews with CNN, NBC, CBS, PBS, NPR, and the BBC.
Mr. Tabler is author of "Syria's Collapse and How Washington Can Stop It" (Foreign Affairs, July-August 2013) and the 2011 book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria (Lawrence Hill Books).

Education

M.A., comparative politics, American University in Cairo (AUC); Certificate, Arabic Language Institute, AUC; B.A., Washington & Jefferson College

Languages Spoken / Read

  • Arabic


Apa Yang Sebenarnya Terjadi Di Suriah? (1)


Hai orang-orang yang beriman hendaklah kamu jadi orang-orang yang selalu menegakkan (kebenaran) karena Allah, menjadi saksi dengan adil. dan janganlah sekali-kali kebencianmu terhadap sesuatu kaum, mendorong kamu untuk berlaku tidak adil. Berlaku adillah, karena adil itu lebih dekat kepada takwa. dan bertakwalah kepada Allah, sesungguhnya Allah Maha mengetahui apa yang kamu kerjakan. (QS Al-Maaidah: 8)

Sesuai dengan amanat Tuhan yang disampaikan melalui kitab suci-Nya saya mencoba menjabarkan mengenai permasalahan yang terjadi di negri nun jauh disana dengan se-objektif mungkin, Suriah.

Sebagian besar dari kita mungkin hanya “pernah dengar” tentang negara ini dan tidak pernah ada yang benar benar memperhatikan keberadaan negara ini pra 2011.

Apa yang terjadi di tahun 2011? Twitter, Facebook dan berbagai media sosial menjadikan gerakan penggulingan terhadap beberapa penguasa absolut timur tengah menjadi massif dan telah berhasi merontokkan kekuasaan beberapa pemimpin di timur tengah yaitu Ben Ali dari Tunisia, Khadafi dari Libya, Husni Mubarak dari Mesir dan Ali Abdullah Saleh dari Yaman. Di beberapa negara lain protes tidak berlangsung penuh kekerasan dan beberapa “hanya” menghasilkan reformasi di pemerintahan.


sumber gambar : Wikipedia

Arab spring tidak berlangsung mulus, Tunisia sejauh ini berhasil mempertahankan demokrasi hasil dari proses transisi tersebut. Libya yang tadinya merupakan negeri yang aman dan kaya menjadi jatuh kedalam jurang perang saudara. Yaman juga jatuh kedalam perang saudara yang diperparah dengan intervensi negara negara teluk seperti Saudi Arabia, Uni Emirates dan lain lain. 

Mesir, kekuasaan Husni Mubarak yang merupakan diktator ex-militer digantikan oleh pemerintahan Muhammad Mursi yang merupakan calon usungan Ikhwanul Muslimin yang terpilih secara demokratis, Mursi digulingkan saat pemerintahannya baru seumur satu tahun lebih sedikit dan digantikan oleh seorang diktator ex militer lagi, Abdel fatah Al-sisi. Penggulingan Mursi menimbulkan korban ribuan orang, sungguh sangat sangat mengerikan.

Sumber gambar : washingtonpost.com

Jadi dari gambaran diatas jelas bahwa fenomena Arab Spring bukanlah sesuatu yang dipicu oleh urusan agama apalagi merupakan perang antar mazhab, sekali lagi bukan. pemicu utamanya adalah rasa frustasi atas himpitan ekonomi yang di perparah oleh himpitan politis dari para diktator timur tengah yang mengekang kebebasan berekspresi. Bisa disaksikan sendiri mayoritas negara yang mengalami Arab Spring adalah negara-negara timur tengah yang ekonominya kurang maju kecuali Libya.

Masuk ke Suriah…

Saya tidak mengambil posisi seperti para penulis lain di seword maupun diluaran yang memihak salah satu pihak secara 100% karena menurut saya dalam konflik politik apalagi perang, semua memegang beban tanggung jawab terhadap apa yang terjadi.

sekali lagi mari kita lupakan aliran apa dan mazhab apa yang sedang bertarung karena sebagaimana yang telah saya jabarkan di atas, Arab Spring adalah akumulasi dari konflik ekonomi dan politik yang meledak disebabkan oleh sosial media.

Banyak pendukung Assad di Indonesia yang mengatakan “harus menghormati pilihan rakyat karena Assad dipilih oleh sebagian besar rakyat!” tapi mereka lupa bahwa pemilihan di negara-negara absolut sangat penuh dengan rekayasa. oposisi tidak diberikan panggung dan kecurangan terjadi secara terstruktur sistematis dan massif untuk memenangkan penguasa yang sedang berkuasa. Indonesia pun pernah mengalami masa seperti itu dan perkataan “harus menghormati pilihan rakyat karena Assad dipilih oleh sebagian besar rakyat!” sama saja mengatakan reformasi 1998 di Indonesia merupakan gerakan ilegal karena waktu itu Soeharto juga dipilih oleh sebagian besar rakyat Indonesia yang diwakili oleh MPR.

Saya sepakat bahwa demonstrasi seharusnya tidak boleh sedikitpun dihadapi dengan peluru tajam apalagi sampai menimbulkan korban meninggal, satu saja korban tewas rasanya sudah terlalu besar harganya dibandingkan sebuah kekuasaan.

Bung Karno telah memberikan contoh sangat mulia ketika kekuasaannya digulingkan dan beliau dijadikan tahanan rumah. Banyak angkatan-angkatan perang dan rakyat yang siap mati berperang untuk mempertahankan posisi Bung Karno tetapi beliau lebih memilih turun dari jabatannya karena rasa cinta beliau yang sangat besar kepada rakyat Indonesia dan tidak mau ada darah rakyat Indonesia yang tertumpah hanya  untuk mempertahankan kekuasaannya.

Seluruh pemimpin di dunia termasuk Assad seharusnya wajib melakukan seperti apa yang dilakukan oleh Bung Karno karena nyawa seorang manusia jauh lebih berharga daripada kekuasaan seperti apapun.

sumber gambar : cnn.com

Apa Yang Sebenarnya Terjadi 

Di Suriah (2)

https://seword.com/luar-negeri/apa-yang-sebenarnya-terjadi-di-suriah-2/ 

Sambungan dari bagian 1…
sumber gambar : bbc.co.uk

Disinilah komplikasi tersebut terjadi, sebuah rezim kuat dengan salah satu militer terkuat di timur tengah berhadapan dengan kekuatan oposisi yang di back up oleh beberapa negara asing baik secara pendanaan maupun persenjataan.

Keadaan ini juga diperparah dengan retorika para orang-orang yang “menyalahgunakan agama dalam politik” yang memainkan isu SARA. inilah kengerian penggunaan isyu SARA yang sering di wanti wanti oleh para tokoh bangsa dan penulis penulis di dalam maupun di luar seword. Agama itu merupakan sebuah senjata maha kuat yang bisa menggerakkan ratusan ribu bahkan jutaan orang untuk rela mati tanpa bayaran sedikitpun.

Dalam versi resmi, Assad merupakan penganut Syiah Alawiyah (saya tahu ada beberapa orang yang mengatakan Assad itu Sunni tetapi saya mengambil versi resmi yang beredar di berbagai website kredibel). penganut Syiah alawiyah bukan merupakan mayoritas di Suriah sehingga penggunaan isyu SARA sangatlah efektif, kita bisa lihat contoh kecilnya di Pilkada DKI Jakarta. Oleh para oposisi politik Assad, isyu politik ini diusahakan berubah menjadi isyu agama sehingga seolah olah yang terjadi adalah perang Sunni vs Syiah dengan harapan para oposisi POLITIK tersebut mendapatkan dukungan dari masyarakat luas baik dari dalam negri maupun dari khalayak Internasional. Contohnya di Indonesia, para “santri” dadakan yang belajar ngaji dari Google dan Ustadz seleb akan selalu membawa-bawa isyu perang mazhab jika berbicara tentang konflik suriah. padahal Arab Spring terjadi sama sekali tidak mengenal agama dan aliran apapun.

untuk kaum sumbu pendek dan bumi datar yang kebetulan membaca artikel ini saya tidak mau membahas persoalan mazhab di artikel ini, silahkan googling sendiri “risalah Amman” atau “Amman Message”.

Kenapa banyak kekuatan internasional yang terlibat?

sumber gambar : The New York Times

Mungkin para pembaca seword telah membaca dari berbagai sumber lain yang mencoba menjelaskan ini, dari mulai pipa minyak dan posisi strategis dan semacamnya. tetapi yang paling jelas disini adalah perebutan pengaruh. Iran memback up Assad karena Assad merupakan satu satunya sekutu Iran di timur tengah, alasan yang sama juga yang menyebabkan Turki, Saudi dan negara negara teluk lainnnya begitu ngotot untuk menumbangkan Assad, untuk melumpuhkan kekuatan Iran.

Rezim Assad dan ayahnya juga merupakan satu satunya sekutu historis yang sangat dekat dengan Rusia di Timur Tengah sehingga Rusia membacking Assad “at all cost”. support dari Rusia merupakan alasan paling utama kenapa Assad masih bisa bertahan menghadapi perang brutal selama 6 tahun terakhir ini.

Amerika berkepentingan untuk melemahkan posisi Rusia di timur tengah yang mana Suriah merupakan satu satunya negara yang memiliki pangkalan militer Rusia di Timur Tengah.
yang jadi korban utama dari percaturan besar kekuatan-kekuatan internasional ini adalah warga sipil Suriah yang terjebak diantara kehancuran yang maha mengerikan dan kematian.

Ada solusi?

Solusi yang terbaik adalah semua pihak segera meletakkan senjata dan saling bahu membahu membangun kembali negara yang sudah hancur porak poranda. tetapi kita tahu otak manusia tidak bekerja seperti itu. sulit, sangat sulit karena milyaran, mungkin trilyunan dollar telah dikucurkan untuk “percaturan” ini sehingga menyerah kalah bukanlah pilihan. berbagai pihak sudah habis habisan dalam berusaha merebut kemenangan di Suriah. di dalam benak para pihak yang terlibat dalam konflik ini pastilah tertanam fikiran : “aku tidak sampai sejauh ini hanya untuk sampai sejauh ini”, KAMI HARUS MENANG.

padahal konflik ini sudah sangat mengerikan dan jauh dari manusiawi lagi, ratusan ribu orang yang tewas bukan hanya angka, tiap tiap orang yang tewas adalah nyawa nyawa yang mencintai dan dicintai oleh keluarga dan teman temannya. inilah mengapa saya selalu menekankan damai itu WAJIB, perang itu HARUS dihindari apapun alasannya.
Masa depan Suriah…


A general view of damaged buildings in Jouret al-Shayah, Homs February 2, 2013. Picture taken on February 2, 2013. REUTERS/Yazen Homsy (SYRIA – Tags: CONFLICT POLITICS CIVIL UNREST)
BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE – RTR3DAR3

Sekali lagi tanpa memandang agama dan aliran apapun, satu satunya kemungkinan Suriah akan damai dalam waktu dekat adalah kemenangan Assad. karena beberapa negara hasil Arab Spring dan Irak pasca Saddam telah membuktikan bahwa runtuhnya suatu rezim justru akan membawa kekacauan yang lebih besar karena menghilangkan sebuah kekuatan besar yang mengontrol semua dan menyisakan kekuatan kekuatan yang saling bersaing untuk merebut kekuasaan tertinggi dengan cara apapun. Bisa saja jatuhnya Assad adalah keinginan sebagian orang tetapi sejarah membuktikan jika itu yang terjadi, perang masih akan berlangsung berkepanjangan dan rakyat sipil yang akan terus menjadi korban utamamanya.

benarlah peringatan Allah dan Rasulnya bahwa taat kepada pemerintah merupakan sesuatu yang sangat penting selama pemerintah tersebut tidak memerintahkan kepada kemaksiatan.
“Hai orang-orang yang beriman, ta’atilah Allah dan ta’atilah Rasul (Nya), dan ulil amri di antara kamu.” (QS. An Nisa’ [4] : 59)

hadits Nabi shallallahu ‘alaihi wa sallam dari Hudzaifah bin Al Yaman :
“Nanti setelah aku akan ada seorang pemimpin yang tidak mendapat petunjukku (dalam ilmu, pen) dan tidak pula melaksanakan sunnahku (dalam amal, pen). Nanti akan ada di tengah-tengah mereka orang-orang yang hatinya adalah hati setan, namun jasadnya adalah jasad manusia. “

Aku berkata, “Wahai Rasulullah, apa yang harus aku lakukan jika aku menemui zaman seperti itu?”

Beliau bersabda, ”Dengarlah dan ta’at kepada pemimpinmu, walaupun mereka menyiksa punggungmu dan mengambil hartamu. Tetaplah mendengar dan ta’at kepada mereka.” (HR. Muslim no. 1847)

“Saya memberi wasiat kepada kalian agar tetap bertaqwa kepada Allah ‘azza wa jalla, tetap mendengar dan ta’at walaupun yang memerintah kalian seorang hamba sahaya (budak)”. (HR. Abu Daud dan At Tirmidzi, Hadits Hasan Shahih)

Dari perbatasan provinsi Jakarta dan Banten ini saya bercurah pendapat…


Minggu, 23 Juli 2017

.... GULF MEXICO ??...... Why ?? In Mexico, production costs are about $9.60 barrel, among the cheapest in the world. That means there’s even more money to be made for the company in Mexico. In fact, it will make money even if oil falls to $25 a barrel... or heck, even at $15!.......???? >>> ....No Deal Like This Happens Without Great Management And that’s something this little company has in spades. Its COO has over 25 years of oil and gas experience with an impressive resume of successes. He grew Arcan Resources into a 4,000-barrel-per-day producer from scratch (Arcan was later sold for $300 million). He also helped transform Pacalta Resources from a 100 barrel-per-day producer to a 45,000 barrel-per-day behemoth (it was later sold for $1 billion). This tiny oil company also has a former Pemex CFO and director on board. His presence is critical, as he has vast connections within the Mexican government, local communities, and the oil transport industry. Even more important, this micro-cap has a visionary president who is committed to growing the company into a mid-tier producer. So when he learned Mexico was going to open up the country to foreign oil companies, he flew down to investigate the opportunities. He was stunned by what he saw...??>> ...A tiny oil company has won the right to tap into $490 billion worth of proven oil reserves in Mexico This development is giving investors just like you a brief opportunity to make 600% on your money by year’s end (And millions of dollars in the coming years)...>>> ....Then it happened. A blast of crude exploded up from the well, destroying the derrick and ejecting drilling tools up to 120 feet away. For nine straight days, the gusher shot higher and higher, finally reaching an estimated 598 feet and raining oil as far as two miles away. On February 19, the day the well was finally capped, it blew an incredible 260,858 barrels in 24 hours. This was the famous Cerro Azul No. 4 well, which was in the Golden Lane Trend of the Tampico-Misantla basin. Since that historic gusher, this basin has produced over 5 billion barrels of oil. Most of it was extracted by the late 1930s. Since then, flows have reduced to a trickle, and the basin has become a low priority for Mexico’s state-run oil company, Pemex....??>>But It Was Wrong About Tampico-Misantla In fact, there’s at least another 5 billion barrels of oil waiting to be tapped there, according to IHS Markit. And all that oil is about to do for Mexico what the Bakken did for the U.S. One micro-cap company is playing a key role in recovering that oil, as it won a bid on a prime block of Tampico-Misantla property last year. Since then, its stock has risen 171%. But I’m convinced that’s just the beginning.....>> .... The Wall Street Journal editorial page, hardly a left-wing Donald Trump critic, called on the president to adopt a new strategy on the Russia probe: "radical transparency." Specifically, Trump, family members, campaign operatives and business associates should release anything pertinent to the investigation, any meeting with Russians or Americans with Russia ties and "every Trump business relationship with Russians going back years." This information includes his tax returns. ..>>>>... There’s a decent historical argument about why, but it’s beside the point. The bottom line is that if the president could pardon himself, we would no longer have a republic -- nor a government of laws rather than men. We would be a dictatorship, not a democracy...>> ....Here’s some unsolicited advice for President Donald Trump: Don’t listen to any lawyers who might tell you that you can pardon yourself, or even that it’s a close legal question. You can’t -- and no court is going to rule otherwise....>> ....A king might be above the law, but the president is not. This isn't even worth debating. ...>> ...In theory, the justification could be mercy, that most Christian of virtues. In practice, kings sometimes issued pardons to political allies, or in exchange for compensation, or to get military conscripts....>>

Read This Or Miss The
Next Bakken
https://www.angelnexus.com/o/web/131397
A tiny oil company has won the right to tap into$490 billion worth of proven oil reserves in Mexico
This development is giving investors just like you a briefopportunity to make 600% on your money by year’s end
(And millions of dollars in the coming years)

cao-mexican-oil-well
The date was February 10, 1916.
The place: an oil well deep in the jungles of Veracruz, Mexico. Drilling had commenced several days earlier and had reached a depth of 1,752 feet.
Then it happened.
A blast of crude exploded up from the well, destroying the derrick and ejecting drilling tools up to 120 feet away.
For nine straight days, the gusher shot higher and higher, finally reaching an estimated 598 feet and raining oil as far as two miles away.
On February 19, the day the well was finally capped, it blew an incredible 260,858 barrels in 24 hours.
This was the famous Cerro Azul No. 4 well, which was in the Golden Lane Trend of the Tampico-Misantla basin. Since that historic gusher, this basin has produced over 5 billion barrels of oil.
Most of it was extracted by the late 1930s. Since then, flows have reduced to a trickle, and the basin has become a low priority for Mexico’s state-run oil company, Pemex.
The company figured most of the oil was gone, so it moved on to other projects.

But It Was Wrong About Tampico-Misantla
In fact, there’s at least another 5 billion barrels of oil waiting to be tapped there, according to IHS Markit.
And all that oil is about to do for Mexico what the Bakken did for the U.S.
One micro-cap company is playing a key role in recovering that oil, as it won a bid on a prime block of Tampico-Misantla property last year.
Since then, its stock has risen 171%.
But I’m convinced that’s just the beginning.
As of this writing, you can get this stock for under a dollar.
Quite a bit under, actually.
In fact, as I write to you now, it’s selling for $0.32 a share.
A penny stock, yes...
But this is no ordinary penny stock. In fact, it has the potential to make you a millionaire. 
That’s because in a few years — and I know this sounds hard to believe — this small-cap energy company could become a serious mid-tier producer worth $10 or more a share.

Think About it... From $0.32 to $10
Is a Gain of 3,025%
 
cao-mexican-oil-smallcap

A gain like that would turn a $10,000 investment into $302,500.
Sure, winners that big aren’t common.
But with junior energy companies, they happen more often than you’d think.
Like when Kodiak Oil and Gas skyrocketed from $0.42 to $15.99 over six years, a 3,707% moon-shot...

cao-mexican-oil-kodiak1
That would have turned $10,000 into $370,700.
cao-mexican-oil-kodiak2
Abraxas Petroleum shot up 1,368% — from $0.56 to $7.93 — in about three years...

cao-mexican-oil-abraxas1

Transforming $10K into $136,800.
cao-mexican-oil-abraxas2
Whiting Petroleum rewarded investors with gains of 1,015% over 11 years, exploding from $8.31 to $92.66. 

cao-mexican-oil-whiting1

A $10,000 play there would have turned into $101,500.

cao-mexican-oil-whiting2

And how about Magellan Petroleum? That stock soared 2,581%, from $0.53 to $14.21 in about a year and a half.

cao-mexican-oil-magellan1

$10,000 on that stock would have given you a $258,100 windfall.
cao-mexican-oil-magellan2

Now the Table Is Set for Gains Like These in Mexican Oil 
The micro-cap oil company I told you about could easily outperform any of those companies — and quickly.
In the short term, I fully expect it to give you 600% gains by year’s end.
And much, much more after that.
I’ll tell you more about this rare windfall opportunity in a moment, but first let me explain...

Why You Should Listen to Me
 
dehaemer-khan-caption
I’m known as “The Hammer,” although my given name is Christian DeHaemer.
I’m a U.S. military-trained fortune seeker with a vast network of worldwide contacts in business and intelligence circles.
Those contacts — and my willingness to journey to far-flung, dangerous places all over the world to investigate their tips — help me find small, little-known energy companies with tremendous upside.
Like Petro Matad, a tiny company that made a huge oil find in Mongolia.
The result? A 759% windfall.





cao-mexican-oil-petro
And Africa Oil, which made multiple oil discoveries in Kenya, resulting in a 411% gain.

cao-mexican-oil-africa
And Cove Energy, which made multiple oil finds in Africa, including Tanzania, Mozambique, and Kenya...
A play that paid off with a 117% gain in just under four months.

cao-mexican-oil-cove
As a result of those discoveries, Cove grew from a penny stock to a $1.5 billion company.

Now I See the Best Oil Play of My Life
It’s all about that $0.32-per-share junior oil producer. This tiny company is opening up an opportunity for you to get in what I call the “next Bakken.”
I call it the “next Bakken” because the oil situation in Mexico is very similar to the oil situation in the U.S. in 2006 — right before the Bakken took off. 
Thanks to fracking and horizontal drilling technologies that unleashed shale oil there — not to mention in the Eagle Ford, the Permian basin, and other previously landlocked deposits — the U.S. went from importing 60% of the oil it needed in 2006 to 24% in 2015.
And by 2019, it’s estimated that the U.S. will be completely self-sufficient in oil thanks to these new oil extraction technologies.
Now it’s Mexico’s turn.
And it’s about to unlock the country’s shale oil and create fortunes for early investors in this tiny oil company.
It reminds me of a similar opportunity some years back...

The Comstock Story
 
Comstock Resources is an onshore oil producer that began operations in 1990. For its first 10 years, the stock never closed above $5 (it once hit a low of $1.06).
Finally, management realized they needed a partner to expand operations.
So they collaborated with a new company to allow it to drill for oil in Comstock’s offshore properties in the Gulf of Mexico.
To say it was a successful move would be an understatement — in Q3 of 2007, it netted $16.4 million... in Q4 of 2008, $224.6 million.
The result: the stock skyrocketed to over $422.15 a share.

cao-mexican-oil-comstock
That’s a gain of 39,725%!
Can you imagine what a windfall like that would do for your portfolio? For your retirement account?
A mere $200 investment would’ve turned into $79,450.
$1,000 would have become $397,250.
How about $10,000? That’d be a cool $3,972,500.
Think that kind of money would change your life? What would you even do with it all?
That’s the kind of home run every investor dreams of.
Well, guess what? A very similar situation is happening right now in Mexico... and the chances to secure the kind of riches I’ve been telling you about are very real.
We have the Mexican government to thank for that...

How Mexico Is Giving You the Chance at Obscene Profits
Remember the Cerro Azul No. 4 well that blew over 260,000 barrels of oil one day back in 1916?
That period marked the glory days of historical Mexican oil production.
By 1921, production had peaked at 529,000 barrels a day, accounting for 25% of the world’s oil supply. 
Much of that production came from the Golden Lane Trend in the Tampico-Misantla basin.
It’s called the Golden Lane for a reason — it has the highest recorded oil flow rates in the world and produced 1.4 billion barrels of oil in the early part of the 20th century.
As a result of all that production, Mexico became the world’s second largest oil producer in the 1920s, which was made possible by foreign oil companies like Shell, Jersey Standard, and Standard Oil of California.

cao-mexican-oil-tampico

But, as you can see from the above chart, production dropped off sharply in the late 1920s.
The years leading up to that drop-off provoked bitter labor strife and resentment on the part of Mexican oil workers against all those foreign oil companies.
In 1938, President Lázaro Cárdenas responded to all that strife and resentment by nationalizing the country’s oil industry.
He also created a state-run oil company, Pemex, to run it.
Since then, the oil and gas reserves of Mexico have been off limits to outsiders and the exclusive domain of Pemex, which got most of its oil from simple vertical drilling.
All that easy oil made Pemex complacent and inefficient.
As the years went by, it got loaded down with massive bureaucracy and too many workers.
But the company’s biggest mistake was not investing in new hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies.
The government also played a key role in the ineffectiveness of Pemex.
Instead of using Pemex revenues to invest in new exploration and technology, they diverted money to subsidize gasoline and fund social programs, leaving the company with only 15% to reinvest.
As a result of the massive bureaucracy, bloated workforce, and parasitical government, Pemex oil production has fallen 20% since 2004 to just 2.6 million barrels a day.
That’s put a huge burden on the government, as it relies on Pemex for a third of its tax income.
This loss of tax income was a key inspiration behind President Enrique Peña Nieto’s 2014 move to allow private companies to bid on blocks of mineral rights that Pemex had been hoarding.
He saw that the only way to change Mexico’s oil fortunes was to allow foreign oil companies — like the junior energy company I’ve been telling you about — to produce oil in Mexico.

Tampico-Misantla Oil Riches Are Just
Waiting to Be Tapped

Credible sources like IHS Markit say there’s at least another 5 billion barrels of recoverable oil in Tampico-Misantla, and maybe much more.
That’s about $550 billion worth at today’s prices.
The problem is you can’t get to most of that oil through conventional vertical drilling, like Pemex was trying to do.
The only way to access these kinds of deposits is to use horizontal multistage frac wells... the kind that freed up all that Bakken oil.
Extracting oil through frac wells is something this little micro-cap oil producer excels in.
In fact, it was an early adopter of the technique and has drilled over 100 frac wells in Alberta.
Over the years, it’s become ever more efficient and cost effective.
For example, since 2011 this company has cut the operational costs of producing a barrel of oil in Canada from $22.35 to $13.68.

cao-mexican-oil-table

And get this...
In Mexico, production costs are about $9.60 barrel, among the cheapest in the world.
That means there’s even more money to be made for the company in Mexico.
In fact, it will make money even if oil falls to $25 a barrel... or heck, even at $15!
While I doubt oil will drop anywhere near that low, it’s nice to know that you can profit on an oil company in the face of low prices and a supply glut.
And with all the political tension in the world — especially in the Middle East — I expect oil to go much higher in the coming months.
Either way, early investors who hop on this junior oil company from Canada right now can enjoy the financial ride of their lives.

We’re in the Early Stages of the Biggest
Oil Opportunity in the World

This is the first chapter of an oil and gas opportunity that may be even bigger than the U.S. shale boom.
And as you know, that was pretty big. So far, over a billion barrels of oil have been recovered in the Bakken alone.
Junior energy companies that got in early on the Bakken oil game made their shareholders very happy.
Like Brigham Exploration, which went from $17.50 to $37.50 in just six months...

cao-mexican-oil-brigham

And Continental Resources, which rocketed from $9 to $81...

cao-mexican-oil-continental

How about DeeThree Exploration, which blasted from $2 to $12...

cao-mexican-oil-deethree

And Oasis Petroleum, an easy triple from $15 to $51...

cao-mexican-oil-oasis

And Northern Oil and Gas, a $2.50 to $32 moon-shot...

cao-mexican-oil-northern

I could go on with many more examples of junior oil companies that hit big in the Bakken, but I’m sure you get the point.
And here’s something else to consider...

Mexico Has the Sixth-Largest Shale Fields in the World

That reality forced the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to revise its 2040 forecast for Mexican oil and gas production upwards by a whopping 75%.
Pemex estimates that yet-to-be-discovered oil and gas reserves in Mexico could total as much as 115 billion barrels of oil equivalent, roughly three times as much as current proven, probable, and possible reserves.
Alfredo E. Guzman, president of the Altamira Petroleum Company, puts that figure much higher, at 191.88 billion barrels.
Pemex officials believe all those shale deposits have the potential to generate more oil than the country has produced since it first struck oil in the early 20th century.
That’s approximately 45 billion barrels.
Make no mistake — all that shale oil in Mexico is about to change the country’s energy fortunes forever... and make a handful of select investors very rich in the process.
But not everybody’s happy about that...

Mexicans Protest Opening the Country’s
Oil Fields to Foreigners

When Mexico opened up its oil fields to foreign energy companies, it marked the first time in 79 years Pemex didn’t have a monopoly on the oil industry.
Everyday Mexicans didn’t take this move well. In fact, there were riots throughout the country, as the opening of Mexico’s oil industry came with the end of gasoline subsidies.
The result was a 20% rise in gas prices, which hit working-class Mexicans hard.
President Nieto knew ending gas subsidies would make him unpopular.
But he also knew the only way to cash in on his country’s massive oil deposits was to enlist foreign partners with expertise in enhanced oil recovery techniques.
Of course, no foreign oil company would want to operate in a country that artificially sets energy prices below market value. 
So Nieto had no choice but to end gas subsidies, take away the Pemex monopoly, and auction off Pemex-controlled oil blocks.
Make no mistake — it’s not every day that a massive country de-nationalizes its entire energy sector and opens its oil and gas riches to foreign companies.
When that happens, the profit opportunities are staggering for junior energy companies like the one I’ve been telling you about...
Not to mention for bold investors who snap up shares while they’re still cheap.

How This Tiny Oil Company Won a Piece
Of Mexican Oil Riches

On December 15, 2015, the first auction of Mexico’s onshore oil fields was held, involving 24 blocks.
One of them ended up going to this micro-cap oil company.
The timing for this company’s bid was perfect, as crude oil in mid-December 2015 was about $35 a barrel and cratering fast.
That scared off many potential competitors, giving the company the opening it needed to win its bid for essentially pennies on the dollar.
This winning bid made it the first junior oil company to gain access to Mexico’s massive oil wealth.
The block it won is a mature oil field comprising 7.2 square kilometers in the Golden Lane Trend of the Tampico-Misantla basin.
As I mentioned earlier, that trend produced 1.4 billion barrels of oil in the early 20th century.
But now it’s essentially dormant.
Pemex tried to restore the trend to its former glory between 1956 and 1972, when it drilled seven wells.
But it was only able to extract a few hundred barrels a day through archaic vertical wells and simple pumping.
So in 1972, Pemex abandoned the project in search of easier pickings.
Since then, the area has been reevaluated through 3D seismic surveys. And what was found is evidence that frac wells and enhanced oil recovery techniques could exponentially exceed historical peak production.
As I said, the company that won that 7.2-kilometer oil block has proven expertise in fracking technology, with over 100 frac wells under its belt.
And costs to produce oil in Mexico are about $9.60 a barrel, among the cheapest oil production costs in the world.
So we’re looking at a company that has established a first foothold in an oilfield that not only holds vast untapped wealth, but can be produced at a cost that will turn a profit even if oil prices fall dramatically — and will make massive amounts of money when the price of oil moves higher, as it inevitably will.
That, of course, sets investors up for long-term financial gains.
And that’s just the beginning for early investors...

More Mexican Oil Auctions Are Coming

The auctioning of those 24 oil blocks I told you about was simply round one — a taste of what’s to come.
Round two will feature far larger oil blocks, with an average size of 71.4 square miles.
Companies that succeeded in winning bids in round one will have a decisive “first-mover” advantage when these larger blocks are auctioned.
After that, there will be more rounds of auctions that will run through 2019.
Altogether, 170 of Mexico’s 600+ onshore oil fields have been earmarked for upcoming auctions.
Since it won the Tampico-Misantla block in the first round, this junior energy company I’ve been telling you about is in prime position to win more oil blocks — and grow rapidly as a result.
Now, you should know that the company didn’t win that bid in round one without help.
Its management knew they would need a local partner in order to succeed, so they joined forces with a major Mexican energy company that has invaluable business and governmental connections.
It also has an established distribution network, facilities, ports, trucks, infrastructure, and an understanding of the unions, communities, and local issues.
So with this oil play, all your bases are covered — technological know-how, governmental connections, distribution networks... it’s all there.

No Deal Like This Happens Without Great Management

And that’s something this little company has in spades.
Its COO has over 25 years of oil and gas experience with an impressive resume of successes.
He grew Arcan Resources into a 4,000-barrel-per-day producer from scratch (Arcan was later sold for $300 million).
He also helped transform Pacalta Resources from a 100 barrel-per-day producer to a 45,000 barrel-per-day behemoth (it was later sold for $1 billion).
This tiny oil company also has a former Pemex CFO and director on board. His presence is critical, as he has vast connections within the Mexican government, local communities, and the oil transport industry.
Even more important, this micro-cap has a visionary president who is committed to growing the company into a mid-tier producer. 
So when he learned Mexico was going to open up the country to foreign oil companies, he flew down to investigate the opportunities.
He was stunned by what he saw.
He saw it had good infrastructure in place, including existing wells that could be brought back to life with enhanced recovery methods.
He saw they were near port facilities, making transport easy.
And most importantly, he saw that 2D and 3D seismic surveys done by Pemex indicated that many of these fields had a high probability of holding large oil deposits.
This was especially true of a particular block in the Tampico-Misantla basin.
It was clear to the president that this oil field — like so many others in Mexico — was underdeveloped and under-explored.
Armed with this knowledge, he developed the partnership strategy I told you about that won his company that Tampico-Misantla block.

Now He’s Aiming to Grab More Oil Blocks in Future Auctions

Winning that block was just the beginning, and he’s promised his shareholders he will leverage his company’s first-mover status to “aggressively” go after more oil blocks.
In particular, he’s set his sights on blocks in an area known as Chicontepec, which has an estimated 59 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
That’s an estimated $2.95 trillion worth of oil.
Can you see the potential for this company here?
The smart money sure does.
That’s why when the company announced in January it was offering over 8 million private placement shares at $0.28 apiece, high net worth investors snapped them all up in just one month.
As a result, the company raised enough money — $5.095 million (Canadian) — to meet 2017 work commitments at its Tampico-Misantla block.
Now those investors are in prime position to make obscene profits from this company.
They know gaining future oil blocks in upcoming auctions will skyrocket its share price.
How much? Well, when it won the Golden Lane block from the first auction, its price shot up 171%.
You can bet it’ll go up MUCH more next time. 
The next round of auctions is coming up.
That’s why you need to get in now.
Because if you’re not in before the Mexican government announces its oil block awards, your rare opportunity for financial independence will be gone.

Do You Have the Cojones for a Play Like This?
Perhaps you recoil at the notion of investing in a country that allows millions of its people to sneak into the U.S. every year and take jobs from hardworking Americans.
Maybe the idea of putting your money to work in a country rife with corruption and drug gangs that have infiltrated our country is just too much to bear.
Or maybe you just don’t like the idea of helping a country that subsidizes industries that are putting American companies out of business.
If that’s the case, I understand. It’s good to have morals.
But please know trades that can make you financially independent don’t come around every day.
And consider this: There’s nothing you can do about illegal immigrants from Mexico... the country’s corruption... or the fact that Mexico’s cheap labor hurts American businesses.
So why not profit on the whole mess?
The bottom line is this little oil company from Canada represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to achieve a legacy of wealth you can pass down for generations.
It’s up to you whether you want to take it or not.

I Want to Give You a Report on This Company for FREE
If you’re still here, then you’ve shown you want to grab this extraordinary profit opportunity.
That’s good.
But know this: There isn’t a moment to lose. 
The stock’s already gone up 171% since it won the rights to the Tampico-Misantla oil block.
As soon as mainstream investors realize what this company’s up to, as early birds snap up shares, the ridiculously cheap price you can now get this stock at will be gone.
That’s why I’d like to send you my FREE report on this company. You can have it in your inbox, at no charge, just a few minutes from now.
All I ask in return is that you take a trial subscription to my Crisis and Opportunity newsletter.
Crisis and Opportunity is my research and advisory service. It’s where I disclose all the details on the hottest investment opportunities in the world that few people would ever dare to dig up.
cao-mexican-oil_report
In exchange for your test drive, I’d like to send you my FREE report, “Better Than the Bakken: The Mexican Oil Play That Can Change Your Life.”
If you agree, you’ll have access to far more than this report.
You’ll also get:
  • Exclusive rights to my members-only “e-alerts,” which include breaking news on emerging profit “crisis zone” opportunities.
  • Password-protected access to the Crisis and Opportunity website, which contains an archive of all my commentary, picks, and current and past portfolios.
  • A complimentary subscription to Energy and Capital, where some of the most highly touted experts in energy will keep you abreast of developments in the energy industry so you can trade the sector with confidence.
  • A complimentary subscription to Wealth Daily, where some of the best investment minds on the planet will bring you market insight and commentary to help you make sense of today’s crazy investing environment.
  • Access to VIP Service — A subscription to Crisis and Opportunity qualifies you for VIP service. You can contact the VIP team with any questions at (844) 310-4115.
And, of course, you’ll get the free and immediate opportunity to profit on the “Mexican Bakken” oil play I’ve written about in the special report I’d like to send you.
In a second, I’ll show you how simple it is to sign up for Crisis and Opportunity and get this FREE report.
But first I want you to know...

There’s Another Situation That Stands To
Make You Profits of Equal Measure

Like the play I’d like to send you the FREE report on, the next opportunity I’m about to reveal is an oil investment in Mexico.
Most people aren’t familiar with the company I’ll reveal.
But they soon will be.
Like that $0.32 company I’ve been telling you about, this firm won an oil block in the first round of Mexican auctions.
It’s in the coveted Chicontepec region, which holds an estimated 59 billion barrels of oil.
According to the company, the block it won in the first round of auctions holds 4.2 billion barrels of crude oil.
And like so many Mexican oil fields, it’s grossly underdeveloped.
cao-mexican-shale_report
And get this: Right now the company is selling for $0.25 a share.
The smart money didn’t miss a beat with this company, either. They snapped up $11.2 million (Canadian) in private shares in just a little over a month.
I’ve never seen such a clear-cut profit opportunity in my life... and I may never see another one like this again.
You can learn all about it in a second report I want to give you for FREE: “How to Make Life-Changing Gains From the Mexican Shale Revolution.”
That’s two reports for free, just for agreeing to take a trial subscription to Crisis and Opportunity.

But Be Forewarned: Both of These Stocks
Are Very Thinly Traded
It wouldn’t take much additional volume to jack the price of these stocks up very quickly.
That’s why I’m only willing to release 500 of these special reports.
I don’t want to flood the market with buyers and drive the price of these stocks up too fast.
That just wouldn’t be fair to my subscribers.

Both of These Stocks Stand to Skyrocket Thanks
To Mexico’s Exploding Demand for Oil
Despite its massive oil deposits, Mexico still has to import oil from the U.S. to meet domestic demand.
And according to Reuters, that demand could soon top a million barrels a day (in September 2016, Mexico imported 960,000 barrels a day — a record).
There are two reasons Mexico needs these imports: Its economy is growing, and the country has been unable to increase its refining output to satisfy growing energy demand.
On the demand side of the equation, the country’s GDP in 2015 was 2.3%. That’s up from 2.1% in 2014 and 1.4% in 2013.
In fact, the economy has expanded for the last 27 consecutive quarters.
Today Mexico is the world’s fourth-largest consumer of gasoline thanks to booming car sales, which increased 18% per year as of September 2016.
On the supply side of the equation, refineries in Mexico are running at about 60% of their 1.576 million barrel-per-day capacity. 
The reason? Mexico slashed $5.36 billion from the budget of Pemex.
That leaves the onus on Pemex to import more oil to cover demand.
And that’s a big reason the country is partnering with foreign oil companies. Mexico knows it will need to import more and more oil unless it starts taking advantage of its massive unconventional oil deposits.
To do that, it knows it needs foreign help.
To say that makes me excited about the two junior oil companies I’ve told you about would be the understatement of the year.
You can learn about them both just by agreeing to take a Crisis and Opportunity trial subscription.

I Make My Subscribers a Lot of Money
In Crisis and Opportunity
I’m not talking little 2% wins, either.
Take a look at these gains to see what I mean...
Sharyn Gol JSC, 236% in 111 days...

cao-mexican-oil-sharyn

Unilife, 251% in 30 days...


cao-mexican-oil-unilife

Harris and Harris Group, 116% in five weeks...
China Yuchai International, 268% in seven months...
Bluefly, Inc., 102% in two months...
Sirius Holdings, 129% in six weeks...
Plug Power, 502.94% in just six weeks...

cao-mexican-oil-plug

Silver Standard Resources, 108.2% in eight months...


cao-mexican-oil-silver

Just Energy Group, 110.21% in 14 months...
cao-mexican-oil-just

Hi-Crush Partners, 155% in 12 months...


cao-mexican-oil-hi-crush

New Zealand Energy, 150% in 16 months...

cao-mexican-oil-new-zealand

As you can see, I can deliver some huge gains.
But don’t just take my word for it...

“An absolute winner for me. In 2 days the price shot up like the sky is the limit. Thanks for the suggestion. Subscription price is paid back, thanks.”
— F. Lambert
“Wow! That is the quickest home run I ever experienced. In at $9.92, trailing stop got me out at $26.02. Simply amazing! Only wish I had bought more.”
— W.D.
“Made a total profit of $97,500. That was the biggest profit I have ever made. Thank you very much for the great work you have done. Keep it up!”
— N.N.
This Mexican oil opportunity stands to be hundreds of times better than anything I’ve ever reported on...
I’m dead serious. Your chance to retire on the spot is staring you in the face. All you have to do is seize the opportunity and run with it.
It’s like something out of a storybook. If I were dreaming up a perfect environment for banking the biggest profits most of us have ever seen...
The current opportunity in Mexico is darn close to what that dream would look like. 
And since you’re still with me, you must agree.
You’ll also agree that I could easily charge a fortune for information like this.
How many independent research outfits out there have the connections and clout to arrange short-notice, one-on-one meetings with banking, government, and business insiders in the most lucrative emerging markets in the world?
I challenge you to name one.
What do you think a big-name hedge fund manager would charge for a private consultation revealing what stands to be one of the most lucrative investment opportunities of our time?
$50,000? $100,000?

Believe Me, I Know How Much I Could
Charge for This Information
But I’m not going to charge a fortune just so 10 people can have access to information that stands to change their lives.
I want everyone to have a fair shot.
So my price to you is only $1,599.
That’s right. For less than two grand, you get a full year’s worth of Crisis and Opportunity, plus all the additional profit resources I mentioned earlier.
This is just a trial subscription for you.
It’s 100% risk and obligation free.
There’s no gimmick here, and no fine print, either.

For the Sake of Your Own Future, You Must Sign Up
Yes, I want you to sign up even if you fully intend to collect the refund — so you can put some cash into these little-known oil companies that are about to make a big splash in Mexico... before everyone else does.
THEN you can decide whether or not to stay on for the long haul.
You're not paying a cent for information that could fund your retirement.
All you’re doing is putting $1,599 on the table and letting me hold it in escrow for a month while you decide if Crisis and Opportunity is worth what I’m asking for it.
But I’m positive once you see the kinds of gains I can deliver, you’ll be a Crisis and Opportunity subscriber for life.
That’s because there’s always the chance to make huge gains somewhere in the world on crisis, strife, and political transformations.
Bottom line: For just under a thousand bucks, you get the best emerging market investment analysis and guidance you’ll ever receive.

Warning: There’s No Telling How Long
The Price Will Stay This Low
Like I said, this is simply an introductory price.
But if you sign up now, I promise you’ll never pay more than the introductory price: $1,599 a year.
That’s the best lowball deal I can make you.
So now it’s decision time. I’ve done everything I can do to make this a no-brainer for you.
I’ve shown you how two tiny energy companies can create a legacy of wealth for you.
I’ve offered you 30 full days of risk-free access to all of Crisis and Opportunity’s services and benefits... including the TWO special reports I’m going to send you at no charge.
And I’ve cut the price to the bone so you can take a trial subscription to Crisis and Opportunity right now.
So now it’s up to you.  
                      
subscribe-now-blue

If you believe it’s worth letting me hold your $1,599 while you get inside information that could change your life, then click the order button above... before rank-and-file investors catch wind of this opportunity and take it from you.
To your wealth,
Christian DeHaemer Signature
Christian DeHaemer
Investment Director, Crisis and Opportunity
P.S. If you’re not on board these micro-cap energy companies before the Mexican government announces its oil block awards... if you’re not one of the first 500 people to get my reports on these companies... you will have missed your best chance at life-changing wealth. 
Please don’t let that happen.

subscribe-now-blue