Iran will produce an atomic bomb when the Supreme Leaders say so The near consensus among experts is that in 2009 Iran passed the technological threshold in its nuclear program.

 http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/iran-will-produce-an-atomic-bomb-when-the-supreme-leaders-say-so-1.329626

The meeting that concluded on Tuesday in Geneva between the big powers, Germany and Iran brought up a feeling of deja vu. If anyone still harbored any doubts, the meeting removed them - Iran's leaders are acting as they have for years. They create a virtual reality, an appearance of negotiations, but they use the cloak of diplomacy to confuse the international community and gain time to develop their nuclear project in secret.

So the question arises: When will Iran produce its first atomic bomb?

	Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Up and running?
	Photo by: Reuters

Israel's intelligence community has yet to determine when that will happen. U.S. State Department documents on WikiLeaks provide an interesting look at how views change on this topic every few years. According to the documents, in March 2005 Israeli officials discussed various timetables about when they believed Iran would have a full capability to enrich uranium.

Around this time, Iran, then led by "moderate" President Mohammad Khatami, agreed to suspend uranium enrichment. A document indicates that a month earlier, in February, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice he believed there was still time to pressure Iran, although the window of opportunity was closing.

In contrast, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz warned that Iran was "less than a year" from attaining an enrichment capability. And Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, the head of Military Intelligence's research division, is quoted as saying that Iran would attain the full technological ability to enrich uranium by the start of 2007.

Handle with caution

Some Israeli officials, however, were honest enough to admit to their American colleagues that the various estimates on Iran's nuclear efforts "should be handled with caution." One official, Miriam Ziv (only her title is cited in the WikiLeaks document ), head of strategic affairs at the Foreign Ministry, mentioned that already back in 1993 Israel warned that the Iranians would attain nuclear weapons no later than 1998.

Another State Department document disclosed by WikiLeaks relates to a 2009 meeting between the head of Military Intelligence's research division, then Yossi Baidatz, and a Pentagon official. Gen. Baidatz claimed that Iran would need one year to produce a nuclear bomb and another two and a half years to build up an inventory of three bombs, the document says. The author inserted a warning in the margin: It wasn't clear if the Israelis really believed this estimate, or whether they were circulating a worst-case scenario to create a sense of urgency.

Clearly, as the country that feels particularly threatened by Iran, Israel retains an interest in persuading world leaders of the huge danger posed by an Iran with nuclear weapons. So it's reasonable to assume that even if they did not fabricate estimates, Israeli officials have had a natural tendency to sketch frightening scenarios.

Technological threshold

In any case, it's worth remembering that the estimates relate to two distinct and parallel processes in Iran's nuclear program. The first involves attaining the technological ability. This is the stage the Israeli intelligence community originally defined as the point of no return; in 2005, they changed the name to "technological threshold."

The second stage is the time between technological proficiency and the bomb's assembly. This stage features the ability to mine and "mill" uranium to produce "yellow cake" and eventually convert and enrich it. In the second stage, which is known as weaponization, the uranium is enriched to a level of 90 percent. It it thus turned into a fissionable material ready to be assembled in an engineering process into a bomb.

Intelligence officials observing these two stages must consider whether Iran has enough experts, materials and equipment to accomplish its technological aims, and whether it has the political will to proceed. Israeli intelligence has no doubt that Iran's leaders want to attain nuclear weapons.

The issue is more complicated regarding technical ability. Foreign reports refer to intense efforts by the Mossad, assisted by Western intelligence agencies, to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program. These efforts include the sale of defective equipment to "poison" the system by spreading computer viruses, attempts to sabotage centrifuges and the killing of key figures in the nuclear project.

Just two weeks ago, Dr. Ali Shahriari, who supposedly was an innocent nuclear scientist at Shahid Beheshti University but was actually involved in the secret weaponization of the project, was assassinated. Previously, the activities of the physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi in Iran's secret uranium enrichment program, Project 111, were exposed. Iran refused to let officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency visit sites reportedly linked to Project 111. Iran also didn't allow the IAEA inspectors to question Dr. Mahabadi.

The UN Security Council took note of Mahabadi's name; it appears he is no longer connected to Iran's nuclear efforts. These efforts that are attributed to the Mossad have indeed delayed Iran's nuclear program, so Israeli intelligence estimates on Tehran's nuclear project have varied.

Yet there is a near consensus among experts that Iran passed the technological threshold, i.e. mastered the first stage, in 2009; it knows how to enrich uranium and can reach the 90 percent enrichment level needed to make the fissionable material. But it faces obstacles regarding weaponization and miniaturizing the bomb as a warhead. When will it produce its first bomb? The intelligence community lacks an answer. It will happen next year, or maybe in two years. What does it depend on? Less on scientists and more on ailing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - if and when he decides to go ahead with the program.