Putting a price tag on war with Iran
November 19, 2012 -- Updated 1118 GMT (1918 HKT)
Obama warns Iran at UN
(CNN) -- An all-out U.S. war with Iran, including an
invasion by American troops, would cost the global economy close to $2
trillion in the first three months and could go as high as $3 trillion,
according to a Washington think tank.
A full-scale ground
operation to dismantle Iran's nuclear program is unlikely but the
scenario is just one of a handful that a group of nine experts,
assembled by the Federation of American Scientists, examined to explore
how the global economy would be impacted by U.S. action against Iran.
"There had been talks
about oil spikes, about what would happen with the Iranian nuclear
program, damage to Iran itself but there had been no, at least in the
open sources, large-scale looks at what was going to happen globally,"
said Charles Blair who co-authored the report.
Here is the group's breakdown on various scenarios:
What a fight with Iran might look like
Note that all costs are
median estimates for the first three months of any action. Costs
projected longer than that involved too many variables, according to the
group, and would be inaccurate to report.
More sanctions
The U.S. increases the
financial pressure on Iran by imposing a new round of sanctions that
penalizes any foreign bank that does business with any Iranian bank.
Current sanctions only apply to large transactions related to Iran's
energy sector. The sanctions would "seek to cleave Iran's entire energy
sector from the world economy," according to the report. The new round
of sanctions would also limit international lending, depleting Iran's
foreign currency reserves.
Estimated Global Cost: $64 billion
Blockade
Even though Iran's
economy is severely hurt by sanctions, a diplomatic agreement is not on
the horizon. The United States aims to "cut off" Iran by blocking all of
its oil, natural gas, energy equipment and services. A substantial
amount of U.S. military assets are deployed to the Persian Gulf to
enforce the shipping blockade. A worldwide ban is imposed on investments
in Iran's energy sector. International lending to Iran and investment
in Iranian bonds are also banned.
Estimated Global Cost: $325 billion
Targeted strikes
The United States leads a
limited air and special forces campaign, targeting Iran's nuclear
facilities and military installations that are of some concern. In order
to avoid escalation to a larger conflict the United States relies on
the stealth and speed of this mission, not targeting Iranian military
assets that could counter the strikes. U.S. forces run the risk of being
targets.
Estimated Global Cost: $713 billion
Bombing
The United States leads a
larger scale air campaign that targets Iran's nuclear facilities and
its military to limit chances of Iranian forces being able to retaliate.
Iranian air defenses, radar and aerial command and control facilities
are bombed.
Estimated Global Cost: $1 trillion
Invasion
U.S. troops invade Iran.
A naval blockade and "no-fly" zone are imposed as U.S. forces
systematically take down Iran's military bases, destroying each
installation one by one. Large numbers of ground troops would be needed
for this mission
Estimated Global Cost: $1.7 trillion
De-escalation
The United States makes
concessions to resolve the conflict over Iran's nuclear program.
Sanctions are temporarily suspended and America scales back its military
presence in the Persian Gulf, redeploying an aircraft carrier to
another area. Oil prices around the world drop, investments increase in
the region and markets react positively now that the threat of a
conflict is diminished.
Estimated Global Gain: $60 billion
Current sanctions
Not addressed by the
group on Thursday were the current U.S. and international sanctions
against Iran that target the country's oil by cutting off the U.S.
financial system from any entity that facilitates the purchase of
Iranian oil through the Central Bank of Iran. The European Union also
has an embargo on the purchase of Iranian petroleum. Combined the
sanctions are crippling Iran's economy and has caused Iran's currency,
the rial, to plummet to historic lows.
Six Mysteries About David Petraeus, Paula Broadwell & Jill Kelley
We now know more than we ever wanted to about the general’s sex life. But there are still unanswered questions about his affair with Paula Broadwell—from what Obama knew to how the biographer got classified files.
When Gen. David Petraeus, a decorated military hero and the director of the CIA, started an illicit affair
with biographer Paula Broadwell, he probably didn’t think the details
would be splashed across every major news outlet in the United States,
if not the world. But even as more information emerges about about their
relationship, we still don’t know many things about the whole sordid
story. The Daily Beast rounds up five questions that have yet to be
answered.
1. Was Jill Kelley involved with Petraeus too?
Kelley
unwittingly found herself at the middle of this scandal after
reportedly receiving several threatening emails from an anonymous
account. The 37-year-old Tampa resident, who is married to a cancer
surgeon and volunteers with the military, got to know Petraeus when he
was stationed in Florida, and the Kelleys are said to be family friends
with the general and his wife. There are plenty of pictures to prove the
two couples spent some time together. While most news accounts include
an anonymous source saying Kelley and Petraeus weren’t romantically
involved, it’s still not entirely clear why Broadwell felt the need to
send the harassing emails. Was it just a misunderstanding or did
Broadwell know there was more going on between Petraeus and Kelley?
2. Why Did Gen. Allen and Kelley Exchange up to 30,000 pages of emails?
General John Allen, the commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, is under investigation for allegedly sending 20,000 to 30,000 pages of “potentially inappropriate” emails to Jill Kelley since 2010. What was the substance of these flagged messages? Kelley, as we know, is the object of Paula Broadwell's angry emails. Broadwell, as we know too well by now, was the object of Gen. Petraeus's wandering eyes. And just when you thought it couldn't get any stranger...
General John Allen, the commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, is under investigation for allegedly sending 20,000 to 30,000 pages of “potentially inappropriate” emails to Jill Kelley since 2010. What was the substance of these flagged messages? Kelley, as we know, is the object of Paula Broadwell's angry emails. Broadwell, as we know too well by now, was the object of Gen. Petraeus's wandering eyes. And just when you thought it couldn't get any stranger...
3. What did President Obama know and when?
Did
the president know about the affair before the election? When did he
find out about the investigation? Was he surprised by Petraeus’s
resignation? Obama had grown to like the general, who is widely credited
for turning around the war in Iraq. It’s been reported that Obama struggled
for a full 24 hours before deciding to accept Petraeus’s resignation,
which would indicate the president was probably in the dark about the
investigation. But it’s still not clear when Attorney General Eric
Holder learned or FBI Director Robert Mueller found out about what was
going on. It’s also not clear whether Justice Department officials told
the president or if he learned of the problem directly from Petraeus’s
resignation letter.
4. Why were Broadwell’s anonymous emails worth investigating?
Most
stories about the affair and the investigation that uncovered it refer
to “harassing” emails that accused Kelley of flirting with Petraeus and
all around inappropriateness in the general’s presence. At one point,
the authorities thought they had a cyber stalker on their hands. But The Daily Beast’s Michael Daly reports
that the general was barely mentioned in Broadwell’s anonymous
missives, which according to a source read like “kind of cat-fight
stuff.” “More like, ‘Who do you think you are? … You parade around the
base … You need to take it down a notch,’” the source told Daly. So
where was the threat that necessitated an investigation?
5. Where is Paula Broadwell?
It’s
hard to remain out of sight at a time like this, but so far the
Broadwell family has been able to evade detection. Broadwell lives in
Charlotte, N.C., with her radiologist husband
and two young boys. But no one appears to be home in their upscale
five-bedroom, four-bathroom home. A neighbor said the family has gone on
vacation. No word yet on when they will return.
6. How did classified files end up on Paula Broadwell’s computer?
As the investigation heated up, Broadwell voluntarily turned her laptop over to the FBI.
Agents found classified documents on her computer. They questioned both
Broadwell and Petraeus about whether he had passed the information to
her, and both denied his involvement even as they confessed to having an
affair. Investigators seemed satisfied with their responses and agreed
Petraeus hadn’t committed any crimes. They decided not to go forward
with any charges. It remains unclear how she got the information and
what state secrets
she’s privy to, though she did give a speech in October that included a
few details about the consulate attack in Benghazi that hadn’t been
made public.
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