What are the positives and negatives of uranium?
Nuclear Energy Questions
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Applications of uranium:
- nuclear fuel for nuclear power reactors
- explosive for nuclear weapons
- material for armors and projectiles
- catalyst
- additive for glass and ceramics (to obtain beautiful green colors)
- toner in photography
- mordant for textiles
- shielding material (depleted uranium)
- ballast
- and other minor applications
Disadvantages of uranium:
1. Uranium is a possible polluting agent of the natural environment.
2. Uranium is a toxic and radioactive chemical element.
3. Uranium release radium and radon.
- nuclear fuel for nuclear power reactors
- explosive for nuclear weapons
- material for armors and projectiles
- catalyst
- additive for glass and ceramics (to obtain beautiful green colors)
- toner in photography
- mordant for textiles
- shielding material (depleted uranium)
- ballast
- and other minor applications
Disadvantages of uranium:
1. Uranium is a possible polluting agent of the natural environment.
2. Uranium is a toxic and radioactive chemical element.
3. Uranium release radium and radon.
Reasons To Be Positive On Uranium
Monday, November 12, 2012
At the end of October uranium industry consultant TradeTech dropped its
spot price indicator for U3O8 by US$5.50 to US$41.00/lb, its mid-term
indicator by US$5.25 to US$45.00/lb and its long term indicator by
US$2.00 to US$59.00/lb after the worst week for uranium prices since the
Fukushima disaster. General belief among uranium analysts is that
prices must eventually come under upside pressure given the global
demand-supply balance, but a lack of interest from buyers appears to
contradict this opinion. Hanging over the global uranium market's head,
apart from anything else, is ongoing uncertainty with regard to Japan's
nuclear future.
Ahead of the Herd's Rick MIlls has his own opinion and last week
Melissa Pistilli of Uranium Investing News (uraniuminvestingnews.com)
sat down with Rick to discuss uranium prices and the outlook for U3O8
producers. Melissa's interview follows herewith.
Uranium Investing News [UIN]: Short-term uranium spot prices are trading
nearly $20 a pound below long-term prices. Can you explain the huge
disconnect?
Rick Mills [RM]:There's obviously a dark cloud still hanging over the
uranium sector even though it's been nearly two years since Fukushima.
The spot market has experienced nearly a 10 percent drop in the last few
months, with most utilities sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if
prices have bottomed. Limited demand has been forcing sellers into
lowering prices to entice utilities into buying.
Japan's post-Fukushima nuclear fuel inventories are a huge overhang on
the spot markets. As a utility, if you think Japan and Germany are not
going to restart their reactors you're sitting on the sidelines waiting
for all that fuel to come into the market and further depress prices ?
of course, neither Japan nor Germany has been buying fuel for awhile, so
we've lost that demand. There's also been limited Chinese demand due to
its long-anticipated revised nuclear build schedule creating
uncertainty. Are they cutting back, and if so, how much? All of that is
on top of low natural gas prices in the United States, which have
resulted in the shutdown of a nuke plant and the cancellation of two
upgrades. It's all working together to pull down the short-term spot
price.
UIN: Analysts across the industry have been calling a bottom in spot
prices for months now, yet prices keep sliding further. What's your
take? Are we close to that bottom or will we see the slide deepen?
RM:Long-term uranium prices since January of this year have held up,
hovering around $60 per pound. And the short-term price hasn't fallen
below $40 per pound since early in 2006, so it's got a strong floor.
UIN: What's keeping long-term uranium prices stable and fueling the more positive long-term outlook?
RM:Let's take a look at China. I firmly believe that China is still
going to reach its 80-gigawatt (GW) goal by 2020. They have released
their new five-year energy plan, lifting the moratorium on new nuclear
builds. This is a huge industry catalyst that paves the way for more
reactor construction. Although there's a ban on building inland nuclear
plants, there are 27.5 GW of capacity that can be approved for
construction in the coastal provinces. I believe there will be more
approvals coming.
Now, about Japan. The September call for a 2030 nuclear phase out is
not going to happen. The cabinet flat out refused to ratify it. Japan
imports something like 85 percent of their energy, they cannot afford to
phase out nuclear power. There's absolutely no doubt Japan's going to
restart its reactors. Japanese utilities are spending money on upgrading
their reactors, including putting new hydrogen recombiners into 23
units. They've announced plans to complete construction on other units.
J-POWER's Ohma plant is 40 percent completed and construction has
resumed. I expect a lot of restarts next year from July on.
While the market may be suffering short term, there's no other market
out there that can compare with the forward investment potential in the
uranium space.
UIN: Especially with share prices so depreciated.
RM:Yes, absolutely. When you look at equities, producers are trading 40
percent off their 52-week highs and juniors 52 percent off their highs.
UIN: Why should investors remain optimistic about the uranium industry?
RM:There are many reasons to be optimistic about this industry. Did you
know there are more nuclear reactors under construction and planned now
than there were prior to Fukushima? That tells me utilities are going
to pick up their buying. And the smart ones are already securing supply.
EDF just agreed to pay out $200 million in cash a full seven years in
advance for delivery of 13 million pounds and they've contracted 78
million pounds from another company. The United Arab Emirates covered a
full seven years of uranium supply for its first four reactors by buying
$3 billion worth of supply contracts.
I've written a lot about security of supply and that looks to me like
exactly what they are doing. Saudi Arabia can certainly afford to follow
this example and buy enough uranium to supply its 16 planned reactors.
Massively power-poor India is talking with uranium-rich Canada and
Australia about uranium supply agreements and India is going to build at
least 30 reactors. The demand side is looking price positive when you
factor in the restart of Japanese reactors, the Chinese resuming
construction, developments in South Korea and the emerging markets of
India and Russia.
On the supply side, the HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) agreement between
the US and Russia ends at the end of next year. Couple that with the
estimated more than 22 million pounds of U3O8 production that has been
deferred on poor economics. Paladin Energy estimates a 25
percent drop in mine supply due to market conditions by 2020. AREVA has
recently placed its 9-million-pounds-a-year Trekkopje development
project on care and maintenance saying it needs a $75-a-pound break-even
price. Cameco has taken 6 million pounds off its production forecast.
The market needs an incentive price of $70 to $80 a pound to bring on
new supply to meet this demand that's going to come.And it is coming.
Demand has only been temporarily postponed. It's a 10-year timeline to
get a mine up and running. In a short period of time we're going to face
a serious shortage of uranium. There's no way around it. Fukushima was
very unfortunate, but the fact is it has presented resource investors
with great opportunity.
UIN: So the market conditions are perfect for the near-term producers coming on line in the next few years?
RM:Yes. I think investors should have a small basket of stocks, a producer and near-term producers.
I believe Cameco's got plenty of upside in its share price and the
company also pays a dividend. They just bought Nukem Energy, you should
get a lift in earnings from that. They're also part of a group with
AREVA that has a deal with Russian group Tenex to purchase uranium from
dismantled Russian warheads. That should have a positive impact on the
share price. India and Canada have just finished talks and have reached a
deal where Canadian uranium and nuclear technology can be exported to
India for the first time in 40 years ? that's going to benefit Cameco
immensely. I think Cameco is one that should be on everybody's radar
screen for an upside in the share price and a dividend while you sit.
Getting into near-term production juniors, my top pick is Uranerz. This
company just got the deep well permits on their ISR Nichols Ranch
project and they will be in production summer 2013. They'll be ramping
up quickly to a production rate of 600,000 to 800,000 pounds per year.
They are licensed for 2 million pound per year. Their projects are
either sandwiched between Cameco and Uranium One projects or border them
in Wyoming. It's my opinion that they're way underpriced when you
consider the demand/supply situation in the US, which is heavily reliant
on foreign imports. Remember, the US consumes 55 million pounds of
uranium per year and only produces 4 million.
The next near-term producer that I think deserves consideration is
Ur-Energy, which seems to be very attractively priced. It has a
fully-permitted scalable ISR project, Lost Creek, in Wyoming. They've
finished their permitting activities and have started construction of a
2-million-pound-per-year processing facility. And they've got some good
technical depth on their board.
Disclaimer:
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Rick Mills holds no direct investment interest in any company mentioned
in this article. Uranerz is a paying advertiser on aheadoftheherd.com.
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New Brunswick nuclear reactor set to return to service
The
exterior of the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating station is pictured on
Monday Nov. 29, 2010,
in Lepreau, N.B. (Kevin Bissett / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
in Lepreau, N.B. (Kevin Bissett / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
The Canadian Press
http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/new-brunswick-nuclear-reactor-set-to-return-to-service-1.1033723
Published Sunday, Nov. 11, 2012 1:17PM EST
Published Sunday, Nov. 11, 2012 1:17PM EST
FREDERICTON -- Atlantic Canada's only nuclear power plant is expected
to complete its refurbishment this fall, marking the end of a risky
project that saw spills, cost overruns and federal-provincial
squabbling.
When the Point Lepreau generating station in New Brunswick was shut down in March 2008, NB Power officials said the refurbishment would span 18 months and cost $1.4 billion.
More than four years and another billion dollars later, the provincial Crown utility company is hoping the repairs will extend the plant's life by 27 years, supplying about one-third of New Brunswick's power needs.
"Point Lepreau will be a valuable asset and a great investment for $2.4 billion," NB Power president Gaetan Thomas said in an interview.
"We are still going to be able to produce clean energy from Point Lepreau -- over 700 megawatts -- for less than nine cents per kilowatt hour and that makes it a very competitive option."
But Norm Rubin of Energy Probe, a Toronto-based energy watchdog group, said the refurbishment and the lapses along the way underscore the risks associated with nuclear technology.
"Because it's nuclear it is inherently hazardous and everything has to go right," Rubin said.
"Because of that, every kind of small boo-boo turns into a megaproject boo-boo, so it is an unforgiving technology.
"Some of the problems that turned this thing into a laughing stock were really weird ... like dropping a turbine into the ocean."
On Oct. 15, 2008, two turbine rotors plunged into the Saint John harbour as they were being loaded onto a barge for delivery to Point Lepreau. They had to be recovered and sent back to the manufacturer for repair in the United Kingdom.
There were also two spills of radioactive heavy water within the past year, one of which prompted an evacuation. In each case no one was hurt and the heavy water was retrieved.
The setbacks were noticed by Hydro-Quebec, which announced last month that it would not proceed with a $4.3-billion refurbishment of its Gentilly-2 reactor -- the only nuclear power plant in Quebec. The Crown-owned utility company's president cited the problems at Point Lepreau as a factor in the decision.
Critics of the work at Point Lepreau constantly warned of what happened in Ontario. In 1997, four nuclear reactors in Pickering, Ont., were shut down to perform upgrades to the emergency shutdown system, and the effort to restart them resulted in long delays and major cost overruns.
A review committee appointed by the Ontario government attributed the cost hikes to bad management.
"We actually applied all the lessons from Ontario, but because it was the first time to do a Candu-6 reactor there were other lessons to be learned," Thomas said.
One of the biggest lessons to be learned was how to properly replace the plant's 380 calandria tubes, which house fuel channels and uranium fuel bundles that power the reactor.
The first effort by Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. to install the tubes failed when tiny scratches caused by wire brushes raised concerns that joints might not be reliable for 25 years. The tubes had to be removed and reinstalled.
AECL, a federal Crown corporation, benefited from that lesson when they began a similar refurbishment of the Wolsong-1 reactor in South Korea, NB Power says.
The refurbishment of the Candu-6 at Wolsong began in April 2009 -- a year after the start of the Lepreau project -- and ended in July 2011.
"The lessons that they've learned from our jobs were applied at Wolsong," Thomas said. "That is why we believe they have a responsibility for some of these delays."
New Brunswick governments of both Liberal and Progressive Conservative stripes have tried in vain to convince Ottawa to shoulder the extra costs of the Point Lepreau refurbishment, arguing the province should not be on the hook for AECL's delays climbing the learning curve of fixing a Candu-6 reactor.
But Prime Minister Stephen Harper has not budged, saying only that his government will abide by the terms of the contract, which have not been made public.
The cost overruns have stoked fears that customers in the province could face steep rate hikes in the future. But Thomas said NB Power will be able to restrict rate increases to an average of two per cent per year over the next decade while also paying down $1 billion of its $4.6 billion debt, even if the federal government doesn't pony up.
In recent weeks, NB Power has resumed generating electricity at Point Lepreau, raising and lowering reactor power and connecting and disconnecting it from the grid. The company declined to say exactly when it will resume full operations.
Point Lepreau was commissioned in 1983 and was the world's first Candu-6 reactor to begin commercial production of electricity.
When the Point Lepreau generating station in New Brunswick was shut down in March 2008, NB Power officials said the refurbishment would span 18 months and cost $1.4 billion.
More than four years and another billion dollars later, the provincial Crown utility company is hoping the repairs will extend the plant's life by 27 years, supplying about one-third of New Brunswick's power needs.
"Point Lepreau will be a valuable asset and a great investment for $2.4 billion," NB Power president Gaetan Thomas said in an interview.
"We are still going to be able to produce clean energy from Point Lepreau -- over 700 megawatts -- for less than nine cents per kilowatt hour and that makes it a very competitive option."
But Norm Rubin of Energy Probe, a Toronto-based energy watchdog group, said the refurbishment and the lapses along the way underscore the risks associated with nuclear technology.
"Because it's nuclear it is inherently hazardous and everything has to go right," Rubin said.
"Because of that, every kind of small boo-boo turns into a megaproject boo-boo, so it is an unforgiving technology.
"Some of the problems that turned this thing into a laughing stock were really weird ... like dropping a turbine into the ocean."
On Oct. 15, 2008, two turbine rotors plunged into the Saint John harbour as they were being loaded onto a barge for delivery to Point Lepreau. They had to be recovered and sent back to the manufacturer for repair in the United Kingdom.
There were also two spills of radioactive heavy water within the past year, one of which prompted an evacuation. In each case no one was hurt and the heavy water was retrieved.
The setbacks were noticed by Hydro-Quebec, which announced last month that it would not proceed with a $4.3-billion refurbishment of its Gentilly-2 reactor -- the only nuclear power plant in Quebec. The Crown-owned utility company's president cited the problems at Point Lepreau as a factor in the decision.
Critics of the work at Point Lepreau constantly warned of what happened in Ontario. In 1997, four nuclear reactors in Pickering, Ont., were shut down to perform upgrades to the emergency shutdown system, and the effort to restart them resulted in long delays and major cost overruns.
A review committee appointed by the Ontario government attributed the cost hikes to bad management.
"We actually applied all the lessons from Ontario, but because it was the first time to do a Candu-6 reactor there were other lessons to be learned," Thomas said.
One of the biggest lessons to be learned was how to properly replace the plant's 380 calandria tubes, which house fuel channels and uranium fuel bundles that power the reactor.
The first effort by Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. to install the tubes failed when tiny scratches caused by wire brushes raised concerns that joints might not be reliable for 25 years. The tubes had to be removed and reinstalled.
AECL, a federal Crown corporation, benefited from that lesson when they began a similar refurbishment of the Wolsong-1 reactor in South Korea, NB Power says.
The refurbishment of the Candu-6 at Wolsong began in April 2009 -- a year after the start of the Lepreau project -- and ended in July 2011.
"The lessons that they've learned from our jobs were applied at Wolsong," Thomas said. "That is why we believe they have a responsibility for some of these delays."
New Brunswick governments of both Liberal and Progressive Conservative stripes have tried in vain to convince Ottawa to shoulder the extra costs of the Point Lepreau refurbishment, arguing the province should not be on the hook for AECL's delays climbing the learning curve of fixing a Candu-6 reactor.
But Prime Minister Stephen Harper has not budged, saying only that his government will abide by the terms of the contract, which have not been made public.
The cost overruns have stoked fears that customers in the province could face steep rate hikes in the future. But Thomas said NB Power will be able to restrict rate increases to an average of two per cent per year over the next decade while also paying down $1 billion of its $4.6 billion debt, even if the federal government doesn't pony up.
In recent weeks, NB Power has resumed generating electricity at Point Lepreau, raising and lowering reactor power and connecting and disconnecting it from the grid. The company declined to say exactly when it will resume full operations.
Point Lepreau was commissioned in 1983 and was the world's first Candu-6 reactor to begin commercial production of electricity.
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