The Redneck Portfolio: Gettin' Drunk and Fixin' Stuff
Posted by Brianna Panzica - Tuesday, August 7th, 2012http://www.wealthwire.com/news/equities/3630?r=1
The time for redneck stocks has come...
Motley Fool
calls it the “Good Ole' Boy Portfolio.” And it's chock full of
companies that make products tailored to the common man, the average
American, or, more specifically, the good ole' boys.
If you've ever listened to a country song, you know what I mean. Guns
and beer, fishing and hunting, pickups and tractors...the list goes on.
The economy might not be on the best footing, but these products have
been doing better than ever. Here are some companies that are riding
high because of rednecks.
Beer and Tools
The highlight of any good ole' boy's summer is sitting around with a
couple of buddies and cracking open a cold one. Whether it's a
Budweiser, Michelob ULTRA, Busch, or Beck's, it all comes down to one
company: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (NYSE: BUD). This company makes over
200 beer brands and has had a great year so far. Sure, its earnings
report wasn't exactly as great as analysts may have wanted, but in the
past year it's been up 41.62%. With a 52-week high of $84.05, it's not
doing too bad at $81.76.
And while spending time out in the sun with a beer to cool down, a
good ole' boy might want to fix up the old pickup. Other auto parts
suppliers may not be as successful, but AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) is
having a good run. It reported its fiscal third quarter earnings in May,
which showed a 9.3% rise in earnings, and it was trading toward the
higher end of its 52-week range, hovering around $367.14 with a high of
$399.10. In July, Moody's raised its outlook on the company from stable
to positive, reporting that it's the strongest in the sector.
Hunting and Fishing
Any average good ole' boy has spent time hunting, whether it's for a
taxidermied head on the wall or some venison for dinner. And it looks
like that's picking up more. Gun companies like Sturm, Ruger & Co.
Inc. (NYSE: RGR) have had some nice success lately. With a 52-week high
of $58.42, Rugers is currently trading around $44.31. But it's up 77%
over the 52 weeks, and the company beat $0.82 expectations with $0.91.
Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SWHC) is also in a
pretty good place, trading at $9.61 near its high of $10.25. The company
has $53.38 million in cash and had a sales increase of 28% reported in
June.
And of course, nothing goes better with hunting than some fishing.
What better way to spend a nice day than down by the river reeling in a
catch? Plenty of good ole' boys certainly think this way, since sporting
goods store Cabela's Inc. (NYSE: CAB) has been doing well. It was right
below its 52-week high of $47.28 today at $47.24. And in those 52 weeks
the company has seen a jump of 86.93%.
Fast Cars and Pickup Trucks
Fast cars are an American past time. NASCAR's Speedway Motorsports
Inc. (NYSE: TRK) is showing that nothing's changed, and the good ole'
boys still love seeing those cars speed around the track. The company
has a 52-week high of $19.22 and was trading around $15.73 today. In the
past year, revenue has increased $27 million despite a slump in
attendance, and the extra races added by the company helped it to have a
profitable second quarter.
And good ole' boys may love watching those sleek cars fly by, but
they choose to drive pickup trucks instead. No one has dominated the
pickup market like Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). It's F-series pickup truck
is a popular model, and though sales were down in July, the company
hasn't failed to sell the F-series, which has reported a year of sales
increases. It's trading at $9.13, closer to the 52-week low than the
high of $13.05.
Tractors and Trailers
When it comes time to plow the fields or just ride the tractor, John
Deere is a favorite of many good ole' boys. And Deere & Company
(NYSE: DE) is a favorite for investors too. At $78.50, it isn't all that
far from the 52-week high of $89.70. Back in May, when the company
announced its earnings, it showed a 12.9% rise in revenue year-over-year
and raised its forecast for the year to $3.35 billion. It's set to
release third quarter earnings on August 15.
And of course, what would a good ole' boy be without his RV? Thor
Industries Inc. (NYSE: THO), a major recreational vehicle company, is
trading at $30.95, close to its 52-week high of $34.70. It sells brands
like Airstream, Dutchmen, and CrossRoads. The company had a dividend increase
of 100% over the last three years, and its sales for the fiscal year,
which ended July 31, were up 12% from a year ago to $3.08 billion.
So maybe today's the day for industries fueled by the small town folk
and good ole' boys. It's about the working man and his recreational
activities, not the rich man and his bank account.
Take a look at some of the companies important to the good ole' boys of America and build your redneck portfolio.
The Good Ole' Boy Portfolio
By AnnaLisa Kraft -
August 5, 2012
|
AnnaLisa is a member of The Motley Fool
Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers
and are not formally edited.
The Charlie Daniels Band song, “What This World Needs Is A
Few More Rednecks”, is a starting point for what is shaping up to be a
pretty darn good year for good ole’ boy stocks relating to the themes
mentioned in the song; guns, pick-up trucks, Nascar and other country
music themes: hunting, fishing and beer. The ‘1 percenters’ may not
understand that hard workers like to play hard too. And they’re willing
to spend those sweat of the brow dollars on some very discretionary
items. Remember, you one percenters, as the song warns, “…there’s a
whole lot more of us common-folks ... Than there ever will be of you.”
“Tryin’ To Take My Guns Away”
As the good ole boy says in the song a lot of them believe the
government is going to take their away their guns which led to such
demand that Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc (NYSE: RGR)
stopped taking new orders between March and May of this year. The
publicly traded gun stocks have been on a tear. Ruger’s up 77% over 52
weeks and much more than that since President Obama took office. Even
the tragic Aurora, Colorado shootings only drove up demand more . Ruger
has pulled back some from its 52 week high of $58.42 but the company has
no debt, a trailing P/E of 19.84 and quarterly revenue growth of
48.90%. It also offers a 2.70% yield. It reported after the bell on
August 1 but shares plunged over 10% the next day despite handily
beating the whisper number of $0.82 and coming up with $0.91 cents due
to new products. The dividend will also be increased. Ruger is buying
back stock and recently bought a minority stake in Kodabow, a crossbow
manufacturer, in my opinion a canny move into a new space. Note that
after beating by two cents last quarter the stock sold off 37% in 30
days.
The other gun company doing well is competitor Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation.
It has been trading near its 52 week high of $10.25 making an enormous
run from its 52 week low of $2.25. The company reported in late June and
investors sure as shootin’ liked that report featuring a 28% rise in
sales, the sale of the company’s perimeter security solutions unit and
anecdotal accounts that more women are becoming customers. Smith &
Wesson has a 40.89 P/E and a 135% backlog, but has cash of
$53.38 million and debt of $53.28 million. It has a 57.60% institutional
hold, 3.38% owned by insiders and a 10.60% hare of the float short.
Speculation or yield on these two, it’s your choice but more than
likely both may run more into the election as gun control political
discourse has been strikingly muted despite recent events.
Huntin’ And Fishin’
If you don’t want to take on any political risk from gun control issues there’s still Cabela’s Inc. (NYSE: CAB),
the sporting goods retailer specializing in hunting and fishing. It has
been hitting 52 weeks highs lately and the 37 stores in the US and
Canada are actually tourist destinations. Every time I drive past the
Cabela’s back to college for my kid, the parking lot is full with RV’s,
motorhomes and cars at all hours that it’s open. Cabela’s is opening
two more stores, one in Saginaw, Michigan and in Anchorage, Alaska
having just opened another 3 locations. Cabela’s reported a strong Q2
on July 26 spurring a 14.5% share price surge on big volume for an
overall rise of 86.93% in the stock price over 52 weeks. The P/E is
19.82 but the company has debt of almost half its cash. Over a third of
the stock is held by insiders with institutions holding 64.70% and 7.10%
held short.
“Yes, I Drive A Pickup Truck”
The good ole’ boys say it in the song and the companies’ trucks they buy are GM’s and Fords. Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F)
is probably the bigger beneficiary as its F-series trucks have been the
best selling automotive line in the US for 30 years. While both GM and
Ford reported that July sales were down possibly due to the Japanese
automakers finally coming back to near full production and also same
old same old European troubles, but it should be noted the F-series
trucks have now posted a year straight of monthly sales gains,
especially the F-150 Eco Boost model. Ford now has a yield of 2.20%.
Ford is trading at the lower end of its 52-week range as is GM and of
the Good Ole Boy portfoiio these would be the worst performers due to
their European exposure, downturn in fleet sales and the ramp up in
Japanese automakers’ production.
General Motors Company reported August 2 and
actually beat estimates because Europe was not as bad as expected
although Q2 profits were down 41%. Analysts also expect a downturn in
truck sales as consumers wait until a major model change for 2013. Like Apple
customers wait for the iPhone 5, truck buyers like to wait for the
first year of a model change and hold off buying the current model.
Beer And Nascar
The beer good ole’ boys drink is made by Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (NYSE: BUD).
Close to its 52 week high of $81.69, Bud offers 200 brands of beer and
was founded in 1366 and headquarted in Belgium but good ole boys don’t
care about that. You might care that the stock is up 41.62% over a year,
that the quarterly earnings growth is 75.10% year over year and the
yield is 1.60%. As this one has commodity costs related to grain it is
good to know the company will raise prices in the fall and consumers
will likely still lap it up. Bud just reported July 31 and disappointed
somewhat citing costs with launching new US beers and transport charges
but Motley Fool contributor Ryan Guenette believes it
has the best growth of all the brewers. The company has a P/E of 19.69
but that growth and worldwide brand recognition is something the other
brewers envy.
“And I’m a diehard NASCAR fan” so the song goes and Speedway Motorsports Inc. (NYSE: TRK)
stock is the best play. It has a 3.70% yield. Despite a reported
downturn in Nascar event attendance the stock has still risen from
$11.37 to $19.22. It reported on August 1 and revenue is up at $181
million, an increase of $27 million from the prior year. The motorsports
entertainment company owns eight tracks and credited extra races held
during the quarter for the improvement in revenue. The company
reaffirmed guidance as well albeit claiming a challenging macroeconomic
environment for its fans overall.
“A Little More Respect for..The Workin’ Man”
That’s what the hedge funds and one percenters are beginning to
believe the workin’ man’s purchasing power deserves and accordingly are
ponying up for their portfolios. So whither the good ole’ boy trade?
Guns will probably continue to be a hot sector and beer is certainly hot
(but in a good way.) Cabela’s seems like a strong hold for the long
term while the motor related stocks are at their lows. Nascar may be
struggling but Speedway’s stock doesn’t seem to reflect it. If you
believe like the song says, “ there’s a whole lot more of us
common-folks” and that construction and manufacturing in the US is
slowly turning around then taking a shot at the good ole’ boy portfolio
for the long term could make you some beer money.
Americans Buy Guns in Record Numbers for Christmas
Posted by Mike Tirone - Friday, January 6th, 2012
http://www.wealthwire.com/news/liberty/2475
'Tis the season to be jolly.'
Well according to the FBI, this Christmas season provided a lot of jolliness to gun enthusiasts.
Over 1.5 million background checks on
customers were requested by gun dealers to the National Instant Criminal
Background Check System in December. What's even crazier with these
numbers is how much these gun purchasers are procrastinators. Nearly
500,000 of those requests were just within six days of Christmas.
It was the highest number ever in a
single month, eclipsing the previous record set in November. So it looks
like it is safe (or unsafe) to say that 2011 was a year for the guns.
On December 23 along there were 102,222
background checks, making it the second busiest single day for buying
guns in U.S. history.
Let's not forget that these are JUST
background checks, meaning that at the very minimum, one gun was sold
for each check, while that does not figure into individual customers
bringing home more than one firearm.
Many believe that due to the halted
economy, people are preparing for crime waves to sweep the nation,
therefore guns are being purchased rampantly. This summer before the
Occupy Wall Street protests, Wealth Wire reported the highest selling
items on Amazon.com were crowd control and protest-ready weapons such as batons and baseball bats.
Other theories as to why buyers are
cleaning the shelves of gun stores is because they believe tighter
firearms laws will be introduced in the near future. So to make sure
they are prepared for the projected law changes, people are buying in
hoards.
On a different level, some just attribute
the high gun sales in some creative marketing. There has been reports
of certain gun clubs offering pictures with Santa, a very interesting
yet effective technique.
According to The National Rifle
Association, people are mostly concerned with self defense police
officer numbers are continuing to fall.
NRA spokesperson says, “I think there's
an increased realization that when something bad occurs it's going to be
between them and the criminal.”
From The Telegraph,
But anti-gun
campaigners said those who already owned weapons were simply hoarding
more of them due to "fear-mongering" by the NRA.
A spokeswoman for
the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence said: "The research we've
seen indicates fewer and fewer people are owning more and more guns."
In states like Arizona, home to the
tragic killing of six and near-fatal shooting of congresswoman Gabrielle
Giffords, citizens are calling for tighter gun control, but according
to one local gun dealer, sales couldn't be better. Legendary Guns in
Phoenix had 25% higher sales on Christmas and the owner describes
ammunition sales as “brisk”.
“A lot of people are concerned about
pending gun legislation and the sense about the current administration.
People think future availability will be limited and there's a feeling
of 'get it while you can.'”
The Top 10 Stolen Cars
Posted by Brianna Panzica - Monday, July 23rd, 2012
http://www.wealthwire.com/news/liberty/3549
Car thefts have fallen as auto manufacturers up the security built into cars.
Of course, plenty of people still have their cars stolen or broken
into every year. In 2010, the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration reported an average of 1.17 thefts for every 1,000 cars
produced.
Some of this might be personal carelessness. Windows accidentally
left down, easily accessible keys, or enticing items like power cords
left in view, indicating the likely presence of more expensive gadgets,
can all draw a car thief in.
But sometimes it's something even more simple—the make of the car. These cars were listed as the top 10 stolen models by Bankrate.com.
1) Dodge Charger
In 2010, 532 Dodge Chargers were reported as stolen. This Chrysler
vehicle was the most stolen car of the year in terms of the theft rate
of 6.0433 per 1,000 vehicles produced.
2) Pontiac G6
GM's Pontiac G6 was the second most stolen car of the year. Though
the number of thefts was significantly lower, at 111 in 2010, the rate
was 4.3383 per 1,000 vehicles.
3) Chevrolet Impala
This GM vehicle came in third despite having the highest number of
thefts in 2010. Though 579 were stolen, that came out to only 3.85 per
1,000.
4) Chrysler 300
This vehicle had a theft rate of 3.5399 per 1,000 cars, with 185 thefts in 2010.
5) Infiniti FX35
This is the first foreign car to fall into the mix. The Nissan
Inifiti FX35 maintained a similar per-1,000 theft rate at 3.1966, but
the number of thefts, 30, was much lower.
6) Mitsubishi Galant
This Mitsubishi vehicle had a theft rate of 3.1527, also similar to the Infiniti and Chrysler vehicles, with 38 thefts in 2010.
7) Chrysler Sebring
Thefts for this car were much higher than both the Mitsubishi and the
Nissan. The Chrysler Sebring had 130 thefts in 2010 but a lower theft
rate at 3.0217.
8) Lexus SC
Toyota's Lexus SC is an interesting case. While only one of these
cars was stolen in 2010, that amounted to a rate of 2.9851 per 1,000
produced, as only 335 were produced that year. That doesn't seem to be
hard evidence that this car is highly stolen, but the rate of theft
versus production puts it higher up on the list.
9) Dodge Avenger
Thefts for Chrysler's Dodge Avenger jump in comparison to the Lexus SC. In 2010, 197 of these cars were stolen, a rate of 2.914.
10) Kia Rio
The Kia Rio was the tenth-most stolen car in 2010 in relation to the
number manufactured. The 55 thefts that year gave it a theft rate of
2.8986.
This list contradicts sheer numbers of cars stolen. If we were to look at the highest number of car thefts, Toyota's Camry would come out on top with 691 thefts in 2010.
Also ranking high would be the Toyota Corolla, with 615 thefts, and
then of course the Chevrolet Impala and the Dodge Charger, both of which
made this list.
The best thing you can do, no matter what kind of car you own, is to
take basic security precautions to avoid theft. Lock your car, roll up
the windows, and hide any valuables or things indicating you might have
valuables (like that tell-tale iPod cord).
If your car does not already have a security system, or to beef up
your car's existing system, you could have LoJack installed, which will
track a stolen car, or another car security system.
And be smart. You can't always control where you park your car, but
parking garages and certain neighborhoods often draw in more theft.
Vigilance is key.
Is Beer a Reflection of the World Economy?
Posted by Wealth Wire - Tuesday, July 31st, 2012
http://www.wealthwire.com/news/global/3591
Good news first. Despite the financial crisis, the Eurozone
debt crisis, the housing collapse, the endless series of
taxpayer-funded or central-bank-engineered bailouts, and despite
various bubbles inflating or blowing up, worldwide beer production has
increased year after year. In 2011, it rose by another 60 million
hectoliters to 1.9 billion hectoliters (1 hectoliter = 26.418 US
gallons), and was a very respectable 38.3% higher than in 2000,
according to the annual beer and hops report by Barth-Haas Group.
The bad news was regional. In most developed countries, production
dropped. In the US, it edged down 1.6% last year and 5.7% since
1990—despite a significant increase in the population. In Germany, it
stabilized recently, but had plunged 20.5% since 1990. Production in the
UK had skidded 27.5% during that time, though it ticked up last year.
No glimmer of hope for Japan: production is down 14.7% since 1990, and
down 3.6% from 2010, the seventh straight year of declines. Only 442.39
million cases were shipped, the lowest ever in recorded Japanese beer history.
But Asia was on a tear. Well, except Japan. And India, the only major
country that hasn’t yet discovered a taste for beer. The driver in
worldwide beer production growth was China, up 9.3% in 2011, and up an
astonishing 600% since 1990. Of the 60 million hectoliters in growth
worldwide last year, 42 million where brewed in China. Vietnam made huge
strides; in percentage terms a 2,680% melt-up since 1990. Beer
production also grew in Africa and Latin America.
Russia is a special case: in the Soviet Union in 1990, beer
production was zero (the chart below shows the percentage increase since
2000). By the time I went to Russia in 1996, Russian beers and
Heineken were available, but hard to find in smaller towns or on
trains, though vodka (served in water glasses or by the bottle) was
everywhere. Since then, Russia has shot up to third place in beer
production, knocking off Germany and a slew of other countries, only to
get itself knocked off by Brazil last year. Production tapered off,
not because of a decline in per-capita consumption—it’s still
increasing despite a government crackdown on alcohol consumption—but
because imports are making some headway.
When I was a kid in Germany, I engaged in what in the US would be
considered underage drinking. I was too young to drive, and so it didn’t
bother anyone, except me the next day. It was the time when German
beer consumption peaked at 151 liters per capita, the highest in the
world. But then I went to America ... and German beer consumption began
a multi-decade decline that may finally be leveling off at 107 liters
per capita. Enough for a second place in 2010, but not in 2011, when
Austria knocked Germany down to third place.
Within any country, there are regional differences. But they’re
particularly strong in Germany. Bavarians are still swilling it at a
rate of 155 liters per capita, whereas Germany’s wine regions are down
to 69 liters, an outright scandal. My grandfather, who was born and
raised in the Kingdom of Bohemia, which was part of the Austrian Empire
at the time, and is now part of the Czech Republic, would turn over in
his grave.
Today, the Czech Republic and Austria are the top two beer-drinking
nations in the world with 143 and 108 liters per capita respectively. By
comparison, in the US, we drink 75 liters per capita, on par with
Russia.
Note the last country on the list: India. 2 liters per capita! Just
imagine Asian beer production if India’s 1.2 billion people
discover—unlikely as this may seem—just how good a cold one can be after
a hard day at work, or with their favorite meals!
It’s getting worse: in June, ABInBev announced that it would acquire
7th ranked Grupo Modelo, giving the company a 21.5% share of the
worldwide market. Without further acquisitions, the top six will brew
54.7% of all beer in 2012. But the more these mega-groups acquire each
other, and the more they produce the same stuff, the easier it is for
scrappy outfits with extraordinary beers to elbow their way into the
market.
Germany still has about 1,250
breweries, a far cry from the many thousands it used to have—but almost
four times as many as in the rest of the EU combined. They range from
brewpubs to mega breweries. About half of them are in Bavaria. And they
sport about 5,000 brands, some of which are truly awesome, and they're
doing well.
In the US, the industry has been more than morose, with mega-brewers
battling each other tooth and nail over declining sales. And yet there
are astonishing winners. Read.... The Beer War on American Soil.
*Post courtesy of Testosterone Pit.
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