Nuclear Deal With Iran Prelude to War, Not "Breakthrough"
November 26, 2013
(Tony Cartalucci) - "...any military operation against Iran will likely
be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international
context—both to ensure the logistical support the operation would
require and to minimize the blowback from it. The best way to minimize
international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or
covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the
Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that
only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for
the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the
United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in
sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community
would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a
very good deal."
-Brookings Institution's 2009 "Which Path to Persia?" report, page 52.
Written years ago, as the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel were already plotting to overrun Iran's neighbor and ally Syria with Al Qaeda to weaken the Islamic Republic before inevitable war, this quote exposes fully the current charade that is the "Iran nuclear deal."
The West has no intention of striking any lasting deal with Iran, as nuclear capabilities, even the acquirement of nuclear weapons by Iran was never truly an existential threat to Western nations or their regional partners. The West's issue with Iran is its sovereignty and its ability to project its interests into spheres traditionally monopolized by the US and UK across the Middle East. Unless Iran plans on turning over its sovereignty and regional influence along with its right to develop and use nuclear technology, betrayal of any "nuclear deal" is all but inevitable, as is the war that is to shortly follow.
Exposing the duplicity that accompanies Western "efforts" to strike a deal will severely undermine their attempt to then use the deal as leverage to justify military operations against Iran. For Iran and its allies, they must be prepared for war, more so when the West feigns interest in peace. Libya serves as a perfect example of the fate that awaits nations reproached by the West who let down their guard - it literally is a matter of life and death both for leaders, and for nations as a whole.
-Brookings Institution's 2009 "Which Path to Persia?" report, page 52.
Written years ago, as the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel were already plotting to overrun Iran's neighbor and ally Syria with Al Qaeda to weaken the Islamic Republic before inevitable war, this quote exposes fully the current charade that is the "Iran nuclear deal."
The West has no intention of striking any lasting deal with Iran, as nuclear capabilities, even the acquirement of nuclear weapons by Iran was never truly an existential threat to Western nations or their regional partners. The West's issue with Iran is its sovereignty and its ability to project its interests into spheres traditionally monopolized by the US and UK across the Middle East. Unless Iran plans on turning over its sovereignty and regional influence along with its right to develop and use nuclear technology, betrayal of any "nuclear deal" is all but inevitable, as is the war that is to shortly follow.
Exposing the duplicity that accompanies Western "efforts" to strike a deal will severely undermine their attempt to then use the deal as leverage to justify military operations against Iran. For Iran and its allies, they must be prepared for war, more so when the West feigns interest in peace. Libya serves as a perfect example of the fate that awaits nations reproached by the West who let down their guard - it literally is a matter of life and death both for leaders, and for nations as a whole.
Continuity of Agenda: Syria Catastrophe Engineered Under Bush, Executed Verbatim Under Obama
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2013/09/continuity-of-agenda-syria-catastrophe.html
The rise of Al Qaeda in Syria and the
predictable bloodbath that followed is the documented work of US,
Israel, & Saudi Arabia.
September 13, 2013 (Tony Cartalucci) - Tens of thousands of deaths, devastated cities, and the scattering of terrified Syrian minorities add up to a catastrophe that has unfolded in Syria over the last 2 years. International organizations including the UN call it the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the 21st century, and despite this, have put little effort into tracking down the actual genesis of the conflict, the key players perpetuating the violence, and in prescribing the obvious solutions to this conflict. With a recent initiative by Russia and Syria blunting the West's pro-war drive, Western propagandists have attempted to reassert their crumbling narrative regarding the conflict, past, present, and future.
The Genesis of Syria's Conflict
We are told by Western politicians and Western media houses that the conflict in Syria began with a spontaneous "peaceful," "pro-democracy" uprising influenced by similar demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. We are told that these peaceful protests were brutally crushed by the Syrian government and resulted in the militarization of the so-called "opposition."
This is a verified lie.
In an April 2011 AFP report, Michael Posner, the assistant US Secretary of State for Human Rights and Labor, admitted that [emphasis added]:
What's more disturbing is that the US-engineered "protests" were not designed to overthrow targeted governments, but instead to serve as a smokescreen for similarly pre-planned armed subversion. As early as 2007, under then President George Bush, the arming, funding, and otherwise supporting of sectarian extremists across the Middle East to undermine Lebanon, Syria, and Iran was put into motion.
Admissions by administration officials, intelligence agents, and the very militant groups the US was funding and preparing for armed subversion in 2007 were documented in Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh's New Yorker extensive 9-page report, "The Redirection: Is the Administration's new policy benefiting our enemies in the war on terrorism?" In it he would state clearly that:
September 13, 2013 (Tony Cartalucci) - Tens of thousands of deaths, devastated cities, and the scattering of terrified Syrian minorities add up to a catastrophe that has unfolded in Syria over the last 2 years. International organizations including the UN call it the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the 21st century, and despite this, have put little effort into tracking down the actual genesis of the conflict, the key players perpetuating the violence, and in prescribing the obvious solutions to this conflict. With a recent initiative by Russia and Syria blunting the West's pro-war drive, Western propagandists have attempted to reassert their crumbling narrative regarding the conflict, past, present, and future.
The Genesis of Syria's Conflict
We are told by Western politicians and Western media houses that the conflict in Syria began with a spontaneous "peaceful," "pro-democracy" uprising influenced by similar demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. We are told that these peaceful protests were brutally crushed by the Syrian government and resulted in the militarization of the so-called "opposition."
This is a verified lie.
In an April 2011 AFP report, Michael Posner, the assistant US Secretary of State for Human Rights and Labor, admitted that [emphasis added]:
"US government has budgeted $50 million in the last two years [starting in 2009] to develop new technologies to help activists protect themselves from arrest and prosecution by authoritarian governments."The report went on to admit that the US (emphasis added) "organized training sessions for 5,000 activists in different parts of the world. A session held in the Middle East about six weeks ago gathered activists from Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon who returned to their countries with the aim of training their colleagues there." Posner would add, "They went back and there's a ripple effect."Not only were the protests in Syria planned, funded, and directed by the US State Department, years before the so-called "Arab Spring" began, but so were the alleged protests that "triggered" events in Syria - namely similarly engineered protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and the violent US-led subversion carried out in Libya.
What's more disturbing is that the US-engineered "protests" were not designed to overthrow targeted governments, but instead to serve as a smokescreen for similarly pre-planned armed subversion. As early as 2007, under then President George Bush, the arming, funding, and otherwise supporting of sectarian extremists across the Middle East to undermine Lebanon, Syria, and Iran was put into motion.
Admissions by administration officials, intelligence agents, and the very militant groups the US was funding and preparing for armed subversion in 2007 were documented in Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh's New Yorker extensive 9-page report, "The Redirection: Is the Administration's new policy benefiting our enemies in the war on terrorism?" In it he would state clearly that:
"To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coƶperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda."Six years later, it could not be more obvious that indeed, militants aligned to Al Qaeda have been armed, equipped, and unleashed in an unprecedented wave of US-Saudi-Israeli state-sponsored terrorism against Syria and neighboring Lebanon. With safe havens in NATO-member Turkey, US-occupied Jordan, and pouring in from Saudi-friendly regions of Lebanon, it could not be clearer who is behind the rise and perpetuation of Al Qaeda in Syria.
And even in Hersh's 2007 report, "The Redirection,"
it is made clear that the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia had already
begun financing and preparing the sectarian extremist "Muslim
Brotherhood" in Syria for the upcoming sectarian bloodbath the West had
on the drawing board. Hersh would report:
"[Walid] Jumblatt then told me that he had met with Vice-President Cheney in Washington last fall to discuss, among other issues, the possibility of undermining Assad. He and his colleagues advised Cheney that, if the United States does try to move against Syria, members of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would be “the ones to talk to,” Jumblatt said."
The article would continue by explaining how already in 2007 US and Saudi backing had begun benefiting the Brotherhood:
"There is evidence that the Administration’s redirection strategy has already benefitted the Brotherhood. The Syrian National Salvation Front is a coalition of opposition groups whose principal members are a faction led by Abdul Halim Khaddam, a former Syrian Vice-President who defected in 2005, and the Brotherhood. A former high-ranking C.I.A. officer told me, “The Americans have provided both political and financial support. The Saudis are taking the lead with financial support, but there is American involvement.” He said that Khaddam, who now lives in Paris, was getting money from Saudi Arabia, with the knowledge of the White House. (In 2005, a delegation of the Front’s members met with officials from the National Security Council, according to press reports.) A former White House official told me that the Saudis had provided members of the Front with travel documents."
And yet today, the West feigns ignorance to what they claim is the
inexplicable, unfortunate, "unforeseeable" rise and perpetuation of Al
Qaeda and their defacto political arm, the sectarian Muslim Brotherhood.
Who's Behind Al Qaeda in Syria
Al Qaeda in Syria constitutes the summation of the so-called "opposition." Despite rhetoric of the contrary, all credible reports actually citing evidence, including sources from across the West, have determined that Al Qaeda is the "opposition."
The New York Times would literally proclaim in their April 2013 article, "Islamist Rebels Create Dilemma on Syria Policy," that:
Nowhere in rebel-controlled Syria is there a secular fighting force to speak of.The West has admitted throughout the conflict that it, along with its regional axis, including Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have been funneling in hundreds of millions of dollars, equipment, and thousands of tons of arms at a time to militants operating in and along Syria's borders.
In the Telegraph's March 2013 article titled, "US and Europe in 'major airlift of arms to Syrian rebels through Zagreb'," it is reported:
It claimed 3,000 tons of weapons dating back to the former Yugoslavia have been sent in 75 planeloads from Zagreb airport to the rebels, largely via Jordan since November
The story confirmed the origins of ex-Yugoslav weapons seen in growing numbers in rebel hands in online videos, as described last month by The Daily Telegraph and other newspapers, but suggests far bigger quantities than previously suspected.
The shipments were allegedly paid for by Saudi Arabia at the bidding of the United States, with assistance on supplying the weapons organised through Turkey and Jordan, Syria's neighbours. But the report added that as well as from Croatia, weapons came "from several other European countries including Britain", without specifying if they were British-supplied or British-procured arms.
The New York Times in their March 2013 article titled, "Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With C.I.A. Aid," admits that:British military advisers however are known to be operating in countries bordering Syria alongside French and Americans, offering training to rebel leaders and former Syrian army officers. The Americans are also believed to be providing training on securing chemical weapons sites inside Syria.
With help from the C.I.A., Arab governments and Turkey have sharply increased their military aid to Syria’s opposition fighters in recent months, expanding a secret airlift of arms and equipment for the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, according to air traffic data, interviews with officials in several countries and the accounts of rebel commanders.
The airlift, which began on a small scale in early 2012 and continued intermittently through last fall, expanded into a steady and much heavier flow late last year, the data shows. It has grown to include more than 160 military cargo flights by Jordanian, Saudi and Qatari military-style cargo planes landing at Esenboga Airport near Ankara, and, to a lesser degree, at other Turkish and Jordanian airports.
And now, the US fully admits that the CIA and US State Department are openly arming, funding, and equipping fighters in Syria. The Washington Post's September 2013 article, "U.S. weapons reaching Syrian rebels," admits:
The CIA has begun delivering weapons to rebels in Syria, ending months of delay in lethal aid that had been promised by the Obama administration, according to U.S. officials and Syrian figures. The shipments began streaming into the country over the past two weeks, along with separate deliveries by the State Department of vehicles and other gear — a flow of material that marks a major escalation of the U.S. role in Syria’s civil war.Clearly, based on previous admissions, claiming this is a "major escalation" is a verifiable lie. The US has already sent the total summation of material support to terrorists operating in Syria over the past 2-3 years it could possibly muster - recent admissions are solely for public consumption. The failure of this material support to turn the tide in the fighting is precisely what triggered the recent fabrications of chemical weapons use in Syria and the subsequent, Iraq-esque attempt to justify direct US military intervention.
One must wonder, how if the US has been funding "moderate rebel groups," to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, and arming them with thousands of tons of weaponry at a time, has Al Qaeda still emerged as the prominent militant group inside Syria? How has Al Qaeda managed to raise the funds and execute this unprecedented logistical feat of a multinational invasion of Syria if the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and Qatar are solely funding "moderates?" Bake sales and carpooling?
Clearly there were never any "moderates." And just as was plotted under Bush in 2007, extremists - Al Qaeda extremists - were intentionally armed, funded, and funneled into Syria to destabilize the nation through a sectarian bloodbath starting in 2011 under the Obama administration and callously portrayed as a "pro-democracy" uprising "brutally crushed" by the "evil Assad regime."
The US' direct, premeditated support of sectarian extremists starting in 2007 and continuing up to and including today, not only solves the "mystery" of Al Qaeda's perpetuation in Syria, it also exposes the fraud of Western democracy - where two diametrically opposed presidents carried out a singular geopolitical agenda, merely behind the cover of their respective rhetorical right/left political platforms. The American people were never really given a choice despite the illusion of "elections" and "political representation."
Israel's Role: The Silent Accomplice and Unilateral Warmonger
Perhaps the most dangerous, and yet-to-be-played card in the West's hand, is Israel. Israel poses as a silent observer of the Syrian conflict - taking military action unilaterally in what it tenuously claims is preemptive "self-defense." In reality, it is part of a joint US-Saudi-Israeli axis that has sought to undermine and overthrow Syria and Iran since at least 2007.
Israel is playing a very specific role to keep it isolated from the West and its Arab partners in the region for as long as possible - both to lend extremist forces operating in and around Syria legitimacy they otherwise would not have with overt Israeli backing, as well as to portray Israel as the "victim" of staged or intentionally provoked attacks from within Syria, Lebanon and even Iran. Such "victimization" would allow Israel to retaliate and give Western nations desperately needed justification to also intervene and save their failed proxy war.
This is not mere speculation, but rather a conclusion based on documented policy papers produced by the Fortune 500-funded Brookings Institution, one of many think-tanks engineering US-Saudi-Israeli policy.
One such policy paper, the 2009 Brookings "Which Path to Persia?" report, explicitly states the compartmentalized role Israel would serve in planned subversion and aggression versus Iran and how Israel could offer the West a "foot in the door" to wider military intervention in the region. It states [emphasis added]:
"...it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be. Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it. (One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression.) " -page 84-85, Which Path to Perisa?, Brookings Institution.And:
"Israel appears to have done extensive planning and practice for such a strike already, and its aircraft are probably already based as close to Iran as possible. as such, Israel might be able to launch the strike in a matter of weeks or even days, depending on what weather and intelligence conditions it felt it needed. Moreover, since Israel would have much less of a need (or even interest) in securing regional support for the operation, Jerusalem probably would feel less motivated to wait for an Iranian provocation before attacking. In short, Israel could move very fast to implement this option if both Israeli and American leaders wanted it to happen.Similar calls to use Israel, and its regional partner, NATO-member Turkey, to conduct similar provocations versus Syria have been made by Brookings more recently in a report titled, "Assessing Options for Regime Change, Brookings Institution."
However, as noted in the previous chapter, the airstrikes themselves are really just the start of this policy. Again, the Iranians would doubtless rebuild their nuclear sites. They would probably retaliate against Israel, and they might retaliate against the United States, too (which might create a pretext for American airstrikes or even an invasion)." -page 91, Which Path to Perisa?, Brookings Institution.
In the report, Brookings describes how Israeli efforts in the south of Syria, combined with Turkey's aligning of vast amounts of weapons and troops along its border to the north, could help effect violent regime change in Syria:
"In addition, Israel’s intelligence services have a strong knowledge of Syria, as well as assets within the Syrian regime that could be used to subvert the regime’s power base and press for Asad’s removal. Israel could posture forces on or near the Golan Heights and, in so doing, might divert regime forces from suppressing the opposition. This posture may conjure fears in the Asad regime of a multi-front war, particularly if Turkey is willing to do the same on its border and if the Syrian opposition is being fed a steady diet of arms and training. Such a mobilization could perhaps persuade Syria’s military leadership to oust Asad in order to preserve itself. Advocates argue this additional pressure could tip the balance against Asad inside Syria, if other forces were aligned properly." -page 6, Assessing Options for Regime Change, Brookings Institution.Israel then, still maintaining this posture and attempting to distance itself from the current political struggle over Syria may still be planning intentional or even staged provocations. A recent warning from Russia involving a false flag attack carried out by terrorists inside Syria against Israel provides a very plausible scenario that would give Israel rhetorical justification to strike Syria in hopes of starting a wider war involving pre-positioned Western forces now on standby.
American "Exceptionalism:" The rotting fruits of dead empires, Hitler's Germany, and racist British imperialism
In a recent speech made by US President Barack Obama, he claimed that the United States was "exceptional," echoing the delusions of grandeur of corporate-financier interests and the think-tank policy makers in their orbit. "American Exceptionalism," proclaims that the US is somehow different than all other nations, and by inference, better. It gives the United States the ability to circumvent international law it itself has contrived, to do as it wills both within and beyond its borders, because it "knows better" than the rest of the world.
Its standing alone on the issue of Syria, with even the American public rejecting wholly the concept of another war based on clearly fabricated evidence, shows just where the wellspring of "American Exceptionalism" lies - among the corporate financier elite who invented it.
It is a revolting concept that echos the racist imperialism of Britannia and the unhinged belligerence of Nazi Germany, used to justify the violation of human rights through the subjugation by invasion, occupation and wholesale exploitation of other nations. It seeks to justify what evidence, reason, logic, and global consensus has otherwise opposed, and is the last rhetorical resort for a crumbling empire unable to justify its actions any other way.
A nation basing its actions upon the world stage through such justifications is a dangerous one that depends on the illusion of its superiority. As that illusion crumbles, it will seek to reassert it through increasingly desperate and abhorrent mechanisms. This includes false flag attacks to trigger wars where it can justify the flexing of its military might, and thus scare the international community back in line.
With the West pledging to continue the arming and funding of terrorists in Syria, thus jeopardizing the safety of UN inspectors who will eventually attempt to survey, secure, and neutralize Syria's chemical weapons, we can see there is no genuine intent to end the violence in Syria with anything less than regime change in favor of Western interests. The goal was never humanitarian in nature, only the propaganda used to perpetuate the conflict was "humanitarian." A nation that would intentionally create a humanitarian catastrophe to then use as a pretext for further war is a nation exceptional only in regards to the depths of its own depravity. Like their historical predecessors citing "superiority" and "exceptionalism," the interests driving America now are destined for their own ignominious place upon the scrap heap of history. The question is, how much damage will they cause between now and then?
PERJANJIAN NUKLIR IRAN, JALAN DAMAI ATAU PERANG?
http://cahyono-adi.blogspot.com/2013/11/perjanjian-nuklir-iran-jalan-damai-atau.html#more
Baru 2 hari perjanjian nuklir Iran ditandatangani oleh pihak-pihak yang
terlibat dalam perundingan di Genewa, namun "perselisihan" antara
Amerika dan Iran sudah terjadi kembali.
Pada hari Selasa (26/11) Iran mengecam intepretasi perjanjian yang dirilis Amerika melalui situs resmi Gedung Putih dengan menyebutnya sebagai pernyataan pers yang "invalid".
“Apa yang telah dirilis oleh situs resmi Gedung Putih sebagai "lembar-lembar nyata" merupakan intepretasi sepihak dari teks sebenarnya yang ditandatangani di Geneva dan sebagian dari penjelasan dan kalimatnya bertentangan dengan teks "Joint Plan of Action", dan disayangkan lembaran-lembaran itu telah diterjemahkan dan dirilis oleh beberapa media massa sebagai Perjanjian Genewa, yang sebenarnya tidak benar,” kata jubir kemenlu Iran Marziyeh Afkham di Teheran, Selasa (26/11).
"Perselisihan" kecil itu sontak membuat "kesadaran" saya kembali tergugah, bahwa sebuah "konspirasi" kemungkinan telah dijalankan dalam perundingan nuklir Iran tersebut. Pikiran saya pun kembali ke sekitar bulan September dan Oktober, ketika Amerika secara tiba-tiba membatalkan rencana serangan militer terhadap Syria yang telah dipublikasikan besar-besaran. Sebulan kemudian Presiden Barack Obama menelpon Presiden Iran Hassan Rouhani dalam satu momen yang dianggap sebagai "momen paling penting tahun ini". Dilanjutkan kemudian dengan ke-aktifan Amerika dalam perundingan nuklir Iran di Genewa yang ditandatangani Minggu lalu (24/11).
Semua itu pun secara efektif berhasil mengubah Amerika, dari sosok yang gila perang, menjadi pecinta perdamaian nomor satu di dunia.
Kemudian muncul sebuah artikel di blog Land Destroyer yang dimuat ulang di situs thetruthseeker.co.uk tgl 27 November 2013, atau sehari setelah pernyataan pers kemenlu Iran tersebut di atas. Artikel itu berjudul "Nuclear Deal With Iran Prelude to War, Not “Breakthrough”" yang ditulis oleh kolumnis Tony Cartalucci. Dalam tulisan itu dicantumkan satu teks dari laporan tahun 2009 lembaga kajian yang dekat dengan kalangan neokonservatif Amerika, Brookings Institution, berjudul “Which Path to Persia?”:
“…any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international context—both to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and to minimize the blowback from it. The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal.”
Secara ringkas teks tersebut menyebutkan bahwa "untuk memerangi Iran diperlukan satu kondisi yang dipercayai oleh publik dunia bahwa Amerika telah memberikan kepercayaan yang tulus kepada Iran mengenai program nuklirnya, namun dikhianati oleh Iran yang ternyata berambisi untuk memiliki senjata nuklir".
Ditulis tahun 2009, ketika US bersama Saudi Arabia dan Israel tengah aktif mempersiapkan serangan terhadap sekutu utama Iran, Syria, dengan menggunakan unsur-unsur teroris Al Qaeda. Serangan itu merupakan serangan pendahuluan untuk melemahkan Iran sebelum serangan langsung terhadap Iran akhirnya tidak bisa dielakkan.
Isu tentang senjata nuklir Iran sebenarnya tidak berdasar sama sekali. Program nuklir Iran sepenuhnya dalam pengawasan IAEA untuk keperluan damai. Sama seperti program nuklir damai di negara-negara lain. Bahkan beberapa negara lain yang secara diam-diam memiliki senjata nuklir tanpa persetujuan PBB, aman tidak tersentuh: Jepang, Brazil, Afrika Selatan, Korea Utara, Pakistan, India dan Israel. Namun isu senjata nuklir Iran diperlukan Amerika karena Iran, yang salah satu landasan idiologinya adalah pembebasan Palestina dari pendudukan Israel, dianggap sebagai musuh nyata bagi dominasi Amerika-Israel.
Jadi buat apa, setelah bersusah payah selama bertahun-tahun menciptakan ketegangan isu senjata nuklir Iran, Amerika tiba-tiba saja mau repot-repot berdamai dengan Iran?
REF:Pada hari Selasa (26/11) Iran mengecam intepretasi perjanjian yang dirilis Amerika melalui situs resmi Gedung Putih dengan menyebutnya sebagai pernyataan pers yang "invalid".
“Apa yang telah dirilis oleh situs resmi Gedung Putih sebagai "lembar-lembar nyata" merupakan intepretasi sepihak dari teks sebenarnya yang ditandatangani di Geneva dan sebagian dari penjelasan dan kalimatnya bertentangan dengan teks "Joint Plan of Action", dan disayangkan lembaran-lembaran itu telah diterjemahkan dan dirilis oleh beberapa media massa sebagai Perjanjian Genewa, yang sebenarnya tidak benar,” kata jubir kemenlu Iran Marziyeh Afkham di Teheran, Selasa (26/11).
"Perselisihan" kecil itu sontak membuat "kesadaran" saya kembali tergugah, bahwa sebuah "konspirasi" kemungkinan telah dijalankan dalam perundingan nuklir Iran tersebut. Pikiran saya pun kembali ke sekitar bulan September dan Oktober, ketika Amerika secara tiba-tiba membatalkan rencana serangan militer terhadap Syria yang telah dipublikasikan besar-besaran. Sebulan kemudian Presiden Barack Obama menelpon Presiden Iran Hassan Rouhani dalam satu momen yang dianggap sebagai "momen paling penting tahun ini". Dilanjutkan kemudian dengan ke-aktifan Amerika dalam perundingan nuklir Iran di Genewa yang ditandatangani Minggu lalu (24/11).
Semua itu pun secara efektif berhasil mengubah Amerika, dari sosok yang gila perang, menjadi pecinta perdamaian nomor satu di dunia.
Kemudian muncul sebuah artikel di blog Land Destroyer yang dimuat ulang di situs thetruthseeker.co.uk tgl 27 November 2013, atau sehari setelah pernyataan pers kemenlu Iran tersebut di atas. Artikel itu berjudul "Nuclear Deal With Iran Prelude to War, Not “Breakthrough”" yang ditulis oleh kolumnis Tony Cartalucci. Dalam tulisan itu dicantumkan satu teks dari laporan tahun 2009 lembaga kajian yang dekat dengan kalangan neokonservatif Amerika, Brookings Institution, berjudul “Which Path to Persia?”:
“…any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international context—both to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and to minimize the blowback from it. The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal.”
Secara ringkas teks tersebut menyebutkan bahwa "untuk memerangi Iran diperlukan satu kondisi yang dipercayai oleh publik dunia bahwa Amerika telah memberikan kepercayaan yang tulus kepada Iran mengenai program nuklirnya, namun dikhianati oleh Iran yang ternyata berambisi untuk memiliki senjata nuklir".
Ditulis tahun 2009, ketika US bersama Saudi Arabia dan Israel tengah aktif mempersiapkan serangan terhadap sekutu utama Iran, Syria, dengan menggunakan unsur-unsur teroris Al Qaeda. Serangan itu merupakan serangan pendahuluan untuk melemahkan Iran sebelum serangan langsung terhadap Iran akhirnya tidak bisa dielakkan.
Isu tentang senjata nuklir Iran sebenarnya tidak berdasar sama sekali. Program nuklir Iran sepenuhnya dalam pengawasan IAEA untuk keperluan damai. Sama seperti program nuklir damai di negara-negara lain. Bahkan beberapa negara lain yang secara diam-diam memiliki senjata nuklir tanpa persetujuan PBB, aman tidak tersentuh: Jepang, Brazil, Afrika Selatan, Korea Utara, Pakistan, India dan Israel. Namun isu senjata nuklir Iran diperlukan Amerika karena Iran, yang salah satu landasan idiologinya adalah pembebasan Palestina dari pendudukan Israel, dianggap sebagai musuh nyata bagi dominasi Amerika-Israel.
Jadi buat apa, setelah bersusah payah selama bertahun-tahun menciptakan ketegangan isu senjata nuklir Iran, Amerika tiba-tiba saja mau repot-repot berdamai dengan Iran?
"Nuclear Deal With Iran Prelude to War, Not “Breakthrough”"; Tony Cartalucci; Land Destroyer; 26 November 2013
"Iran Strongly Rejects Text of Geneva Agreement Released by White House"; Fars News Agency; 26 November 2013
Label:
politik
DI BALIK LAYAR PERUNDINGAN NUKLIR IRAN
http://cahyono-adi.blogspot.com/2013/11/di-balik-layar-perundingan-nuklir-iran.html#.UpijySdeFkg
Kesepakatan nuklir Iran yang dicapai oleh negara-negara anggota tetap DK
PBB + Jerman dengan Iran hari Minggu lalu (24/11), tidak mungkin
tercapai tanpa adanya perundingan rahasia yang sangat panjang antara
para pejabat Amerika dan Iran.
Secara umum dalam kesepakatan tersebut ditetapkan bahwa Iran berhak mengembangkan program nuklirnya namun hanya untuk keperluan damai dengan pembatasan pengayaan uranium hingga 5% (untuk membuat senjata diperlukan kadar uranium 20%). Selain itu Iran juga memperlonggar pengawasan internasional dengan mengijinkan para pengawas nuklir internasional mengadakan kunjungan terhadap seluruh fasilitas nuklir Iran setiap saat. Sebagai imbalannya sanksi-sanksi ekonomi yang selama ini diterapkan negara-negara barat terhadap Iran dibatalkan secara bertahap, di antaranya meliputi pencairan rekening-rekening pendapatan minyak Iran yang dibekukan barat yang nilainya mencapai $4 miliar atau lebih dari Rp 40 triliun, pembatalan pembatasan perdagangan emas, petrokimia, mobil dan onderdil pesawat.
Lebih dari itu, kesepakatan tersebut membuka peluang bagi pulihnya hubungan diplomatik Amerika-Iran yang terputus setelah Revolusi Iran tahun 1979.
Informasi adanya pertemuan rahasia antara para pejabat Iran dan Amerika di samping pertemuan resmi negara-negara DK PBB plus Jerman dengan Iran di Genewa sebenarnya telah bocor ke media massa mapan Associated Press. Namun atas permintaan Presiden Barack Obama yang tidak ingin pembicaraan nuklir dengan Iran mengalami kegagalan, informasi itu disembunyikan dari perhatian publik. Associated Press dan
Al-Monitor (situs berita berbasis di Washington, Amerika) baru memberitakan informasi tersebut pada hari yang sama dengan kesepakatan nuklir Iran, hari Minggu (24/11).
Associated Press melaporkan bahwa pertemuan-pertemuan rahasia tersebut dilaksanakan di beberapa negara, termasuk di antaranya Oman. Di antara pejabat Amerika yang terlibat adalah Deputi Menlu William Burns dan Jake Sullivan yang merupakan penasihat luar negeri Wapres Joe Biden. Sedangkan Al-Monitor menambahkan di antara pejabat Amerika tersebut adalah pejabat senior National Security Council Puneet Talwar. Menurut laporan Associated Press pertemuan-pertemuan rahasia itu berlangsung sebanyak 5 kali dimulai bulan Maret lalu, atau 3 bulan sebelum terpilihnya Hassan Rouhani sebagai Presiden Iran. Namun baik Associated Press maupun al Monitor tidak menyebutkan pejabat-opejabat Iran yang terlibat dalam pertemuan-pertemuan tersebut.
Pertemuan-pertemuan rahasia tersebut, sebut Associated Press, telah memberi jalan bagi tercapainya kesepakatan nuklir Iran di Genewa hari Minggu lalu. Namun pertemuan-pertemuan tersebut juga menjelaskan mengapa menlu Perancis Laurent Fabius, yang tersinggung dengan adanya pertemuan-pertemuan sepihak Amerika-Iran, memveto kesepakatan yang sudah nyaris ditandatangani pada putaran perundingan sebelumnya.
"Meski pengumuman ini baru tahap awal, namun telah berhasil meraih sebuah kesepatan besar," kata Barack obama dalam keterangan persnya tentang kesepakatan tersebut. "Untuk pertama kalinya dalama satu dekade, kami telah berhasil menghentikan program nuklir Iran dan unsur-unsur kunci dalam program itu akan ditarik ulang," tambahnya.
Sementara di Iran, para anggota tim negosiasi yang dipimpin menlu Mohammad Javad Zarif mendapat sambutan hangat bak pahlawan. Mereka bahkan mendapat pujian dari pemimpin tertinggi Iran Ayatollah Mohammad Khamenei yang sebelumnya merasa pesimis akana tercapai kesepakatan yang menguntungkan Iran.
Ketika massa mengelu-elukan kedatangan tim negosiator Iran di bandara Teheran, nilai tukar mata uang Iran, rial, melonjak hingga 3%.
“Ini hanyalah tahap awal. Kita mulai bergerak pada arah kepercayaan diri yang pulih, arah dimana dahulu kita abaikan," kata menlu Iran usai kedatangannya kembali di Teheran.
Kesepakatan hari Minggu tercapai setelah perundingan alot selama 3 putaran yang berpuncak pada perundingan tengah malam yang berlangsung di sebuah hotel bintang 5 di Genewa, Swiss, yang dipimpin oleh kepala urusan luar negeri Uni Eropa Catherine Ashton. Menlu Inggris William Hague, Menlu Perancis Laurent Fabius, Menlu Jerman Guido Westerwelle, Menlu Rusia Sergey Lavrov dan Menlu Cina Wang Yi, turut hadir dalam perundingan tersebut. Namun kesepakatan akhir baru tercapai setelah pertemuan intensif yang hanya dihadiri oleh Menlu Amerika John Kerry, Menlu Iran Zarif dan Catherine Ashton.
SAUDI YANG KELEBAKAN
Sementara itu Saudi Arabia yang menganggap Iran sebagai musuh terbesarnya menunjukkan sikap mendua tentang kesepakatan nuklir Iran tersebut. Di forum resmi Saudi menyatakan mendukung kesepakatan tersebut, namun di belakang para pejabat Saudi mengutuk keras kesepakatan tersebut.
Beberapa waktu yang lalu seorang pangeran Saudi yang juga mantan kepala inteligen menegaskan bahwa negaranya tidak menginginkan sanksi ekonomi dihapuskan terhadap Iran. Dengan kata lain, ia tidak menginginkan adanya kesepakatan dalam perundingan nuklir Iran.
Sementara itu dalam sebuah wawancara dengan media Amerika Wall Street Journal yang dilansir Islam Times hari Senin (25/11), Pangeran Saudi al-Waleed bin Talal mengutuk kesepakatan tersebut. Lebih jauh ia bahkan mengakui negaranya memiliki kesamaan sikap terhadap program nuklir Iran dan mengulangi tuduhan PM Israeal Benjamin Netanyahu yang menyebut Presiden Iran sebagai "srigala berbulu domba".
"Saudi dan Israel memiliki kepentingan sama, dan mengutuk setiap perjanjian yang tidak menyangkut penghentian kemampuan Iran untuk memperkaya uranium," kata Waleed bin Talal.
"Untuk pertama kalinya, kepentingan Arab Saudi dan Israel hampir paralel. Saat ini Saudi Arabia mencoba memberikan tekanan maksimum terhadap Amerika Serikat yang menyerah dan bicara lembut terhadap Iran," tambahnya.
Pangeran super kaya raya itu menegaskan bahwa opsi militer untuk menetralisir potensi nuklir Iran adalah lebih baik dari kesepakatan diplomatik yang buruk.
REF:
"Secret US-Iran talks cleared way for historic nuclear deal"; Julian Borger and Saeed Kamali Dehghan; gaurdian.co.uk; 24 November 2013
"Pangeran Saudi: "Hasan Rohani Serigala Berbulu Domba""; islamtimes.org; 25 November 2013
Secara umum dalam kesepakatan tersebut ditetapkan bahwa Iran berhak mengembangkan program nuklirnya namun hanya untuk keperluan damai dengan pembatasan pengayaan uranium hingga 5% (untuk membuat senjata diperlukan kadar uranium 20%). Selain itu Iran juga memperlonggar pengawasan internasional dengan mengijinkan para pengawas nuklir internasional mengadakan kunjungan terhadap seluruh fasilitas nuklir Iran setiap saat. Sebagai imbalannya sanksi-sanksi ekonomi yang selama ini diterapkan negara-negara barat terhadap Iran dibatalkan secara bertahap, di antaranya meliputi pencairan rekening-rekening pendapatan minyak Iran yang dibekukan barat yang nilainya mencapai $4 miliar atau lebih dari Rp 40 triliun, pembatalan pembatasan perdagangan emas, petrokimia, mobil dan onderdil pesawat.
Lebih dari itu, kesepakatan tersebut membuka peluang bagi pulihnya hubungan diplomatik Amerika-Iran yang terputus setelah Revolusi Iran tahun 1979.
Informasi adanya pertemuan rahasia antara para pejabat Iran dan Amerika di samping pertemuan resmi negara-negara DK PBB plus Jerman dengan Iran di Genewa sebenarnya telah bocor ke media massa mapan Associated Press. Namun atas permintaan Presiden Barack Obama yang tidak ingin pembicaraan nuklir dengan Iran mengalami kegagalan, informasi itu disembunyikan dari perhatian publik. Associated Press dan
Al-Monitor (situs berita berbasis di Washington, Amerika) baru memberitakan informasi tersebut pada hari yang sama dengan kesepakatan nuklir Iran, hari Minggu (24/11).
Associated Press melaporkan bahwa pertemuan-pertemuan rahasia tersebut dilaksanakan di beberapa negara, termasuk di antaranya Oman. Di antara pejabat Amerika yang terlibat adalah Deputi Menlu William Burns dan Jake Sullivan yang merupakan penasihat luar negeri Wapres Joe Biden. Sedangkan Al-Monitor menambahkan di antara pejabat Amerika tersebut adalah pejabat senior National Security Council Puneet Talwar. Menurut laporan Associated Press pertemuan-pertemuan rahasia itu berlangsung sebanyak 5 kali dimulai bulan Maret lalu, atau 3 bulan sebelum terpilihnya Hassan Rouhani sebagai Presiden Iran. Namun baik Associated Press maupun al Monitor tidak menyebutkan pejabat-opejabat Iran yang terlibat dalam pertemuan-pertemuan tersebut.
Pertemuan-pertemuan rahasia tersebut, sebut Associated Press, telah memberi jalan bagi tercapainya kesepakatan nuklir Iran di Genewa hari Minggu lalu. Namun pertemuan-pertemuan tersebut juga menjelaskan mengapa menlu Perancis Laurent Fabius, yang tersinggung dengan adanya pertemuan-pertemuan sepihak Amerika-Iran, memveto kesepakatan yang sudah nyaris ditandatangani pada putaran perundingan sebelumnya.
"Meski pengumuman ini baru tahap awal, namun telah berhasil meraih sebuah kesepatan besar," kata Barack obama dalam keterangan persnya tentang kesepakatan tersebut. "Untuk pertama kalinya dalama satu dekade, kami telah berhasil menghentikan program nuklir Iran dan unsur-unsur kunci dalam program itu akan ditarik ulang," tambahnya.
Sementara di Iran, para anggota tim negosiasi yang dipimpin menlu Mohammad Javad Zarif mendapat sambutan hangat bak pahlawan. Mereka bahkan mendapat pujian dari pemimpin tertinggi Iran Ayatollah Mohammad Khamenei yang sebelumnya merasa pesimis akana tercapai kesepakatan yang menguntungkan Iran.
Ketika massa mengelu-elukan kedatangan tim negosiator Iran di bandara Teheran, nilai tukar mata uang Iran, rial, melonjak hingga 3%.
“Ini hanyalah tahap awal. Kita mulai bergerak pada arah kepercayaan diri yang pulih, arah dimana dahulu kita abaikan," kata menlu Iran usai kedatangannya kembali di Teheran.
Kesepakatan hari Minggu tercapai setelah perundingan alot selama 3 putaran yang berpuncak pada perundingan tengah malam yang berlangsung di sebuah hotel bintang 5 di Genewa, Swiss, yang dipimpin oleh kepala urusan luar negeri Uni Eropa Catherine Ashton. Menlu Inggris William Hague, Menlu Perancis Laurent Fabius, Menlu Jerman Guido Westerwelle, Menlu Rusia Sergey Lavrov dan Menlu Cina Wang Yi, turut hadir dalam perundingan tersebut. Namun kesepakatan akhir baru tercapai setelah pertemuan intensif yang hanya dihadiri oleh Menlu Amerika John Kerry, Menlu Iran Zarif dan Catherine Ashton.
SAUDI YANG KELEBAKAN
Sementara itu Saudi Arabia yang menganggap Iran sebagai musuh terbesarnya menunjukkan sikap mendua tentang kesepakatan nuklir Iran tersebut. Di forum resmi Saudi menyatakan mendukung kesepakatan tersebut, namun di belakang para pejabat Saudi mengutuk keras kesepakatan tersebut.
Beberapa waktu yang lalu seorang pangeran Saudi yang juga mantan kepala inteligen menegaskan bahwa negaranya tidak menginginkan sanksi ekonomi dihapuskan terhadap Iran. Dengan kata lain, ia tidak menginginkan adanya kesepakatan dalam perundingan nuklir Iran.
Sementara itu dalam sebuah wawancara dengan media Amerika Wall Street Journal yang dilansir Islam Times hari Senin (25/11), Pangeran Saudi al-Waleed bin Talal mengutuk kesepakatan tersebut. Lebih jauh ia bahkan mengakui negaranya memiliki kesamaan sikap terhadap program nuklir Iran dan mengulangi tuduhan PM Israeal Benjamin Netanyahu yang menyebut Presiden Iran sebagai "srigala berbulu domba".
"Saudi dan Israel memiliki kepentingan sama, dan mengutuk setiap perjanjian yang tidak menyangkut penghentian kemampuan Iran untuk memperkaya uranium," kata Waleed bin Talal.
"Untuk pertama kalinya, kepentingan Arab Saudi dan Israel hampir paralel. Saat ini Saudi Arabia mencoba memberikan tekanan maksimum terhadap Amerika Serikat yang menyerah dan bicara lembut terhadap Iran," tambahnya.
Pangeran super kaya raya itu menegaskan bahwa opsi militer untuk menetralisir potensi nuklir Iran adalah lebih baik dari kesepakatan diplomatik yang buruk.
REF:
"Secret US-Iran talks cleared way for historic nuclear deal"; Julian Borger and Saeed Kamali Dehghan; gaurdian.co.uk; 24 November 2013
"Pangeran Saudi: "Hasan Rohani Serigala Berbulu Domba""; islamtimes.org; 25 November 2013
1 komentar:
- bintang baihaqi mengatakan...
- Keberkahan semoga tercurah utk Bangsa dan Rakyat Iran dan seluruh bangsa-bangsa yang anti zionis israel-wahabi.
- 27 November 2013 20.23
Program Nuklir Damai Iran
Pangeran Saudi: "Hasan Rohani Serigala Berbulu Domba"
http://www.islamtimes.org/vdceee8xpjh8wxi.rabj.html
Islam
Times- Pangeran super kaya raya itu menegaskan bahwa opsi militer untuk
menetralisir potensi nuklir Iran adalah lebih baik dari kesepakatan
diplomatik yang buruk.
al-Waleed bin Talal
Pangeran Arab Saudi, al-Waleed bin Talal mengakui adanya kesamaan kepentingan antara Riyadh dan Tel Aviv mengenai Iran dan mendukung serangan militer terhadap Republik Islam untuk menetralisir potensi nuklir Tehran.
Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan Wall Street Journal yang dilansir oleh al-Alam pada Ahad, 24/11/13, melaporkan, al-Waleed bin Talal mengutuk kesepakatan antara Iran dan Barat atas program nuklir Tehran yang tidak akan mencakup penghentian pengayaan Uranium di Republik Islam.
Dikatakannya, "Saudi dan Israel memiliki kepentingan sama, dan mengutuk setiap perjanjian yang tidak menyangkut penghentian kemampuan Iran untuk memperkaya uranium".
Waleed bin Talal juga mendukung pernyataan Perdana Menteri Israel yang menyebut bahwa presiden Iran Hassan Rouhani adalah serigala berbulu domba.
Lebih lanjut dikatakannya, Israel dan Arab Saudi sama-sama berbagi kepentingan atas Iran dan menyebutnya sebagai hal yang luar biasa dan mengatakan, "Untuk pertama kalinya, kepentingan Arab Saudi dan Israel hampir paralel".
"Saat ini Saudi Arabia mencoba memberikan tekanan maksimum terhadap Amerika Serikat yang menyerah dan bicara lembut terhadap Iran," tambahnya.
Pangeran super kaya raya itu menegaskan bahwa opsi militer untuk menetralisir potensi nuklir Iran adalah lebih baik dari kesepakatan diplomatik yang buruk.[It/Onh/Ass]
Ready to detonate: Saudi-backed rebels strap bombs to Geneva-2 talks
Nile Bowie
RT
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2013/10/ready-to-detonate-saudi-backed-rebels.html?utm_source=BP_recent
As Syria’s rebels refuse to take part in Geneva-2, Saudi Arabia has
emerged as the primary state-backer of rebel groups now trying to
escalate the Syrian conflict and topple Assad by force.
When Vladimir Putin met with Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia in August, the newly appointed Intelligence Chief reportedly tried to cut a deal with Moscow by promising to buy billions in Russian arms and pledging not to challenge Russian gas sales to Europe in exchange for withdrawing support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Though later refuted by the Kremlin, the media reports suggested that Bandar told Putin to forget about any political solution to the Syrian conflict.
In addition to being the main propagator of a militant anti-Shiite form of Islam that many rebel fighters subscribe to, the Saudi monarchy has become the chief financier of anti-Assad movements aimed at toppling the Syrian government and weakening its allies in Iran and Hezbollah. Russian diplomatic sources claim that the August 21 chemical weapons attack in the suburbs of Damascus was carried out by a Saudi-black op team with support from the Liwa Al-Islam group, a hardline militia headed by the son of a Saudi-based Salafi cleric.
Following the attack in August, Saudi Arabian diplomats pressured Obama to take military action – the collective message was, "You can't as president draw a line and then not respect it."
The Saudi strategy consisted of staging the August 21 attack that Assad’s forces would be credited with, and using it to support foreign intervention to topple Damascus.
The landmark chemical weapon disarmament deal hatched by Russia tripped the House of Saud and prevented US unilateral actions against Syria, but Assad’s opponents are by no means ready to explore a political solution to the conflict.
Washington claims to be working towards Geneva-2, but, like many rebel groups, maintains that Assad should resign before any talks take place. Essentially, this position is a form of blackmail of Russia and Assad’s allies – it calls for either the Western-backed opposition in exile to absorb executive power, or a prolonged military conflict. Assad’s opponents are not serious about a political solution, as demanding that one party resigns as a precondition before the other party can negotiate completely undermines the premise of dialogue to begin with.
A civil war within a civil war
The main feature of the Syrian battleground is that armed groups of the opposition are becoming more and more split and prone to infighting.
Recent fighting between the Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant group against battalions linked to the Western-backed Free Syrian Army have killed dozens in Aleppo; this discord between rebel groups paints of a picture of what Syria could look like even if Assad is toppled.
The levels of instability seen today in Libya and Iraq are an indication of how bad things can get when lawless militias are empowered in the absence of a central governing authority. If Assad’s opponents had their way in Syria, dozens of groups would take advantage of the post-Assad power vacuum to vie for control. This means that although the Baath-dominated political establishment would be toppled, it would certainly not result in an end to the conflict, only the beginning of a new and more ruthless chapter.
The Free Syrian Army is increasingly losing clout on the ground as rival groups refuse to take orders from their command structure, which is gradually being viewed with suspicion by other rebel battalions due to its links with Washington.
Islamist factions such as Jabhat Al-Nusra, the Farouq Brigade, and Jaish Al-Islam seek to form a new caliphate with Damascus as its capital. This new state would be subservient to Saudi Arabia and its brand of ideological Wahhabism and it would reject an inclusive secular framework; it would be hostile to Alawites, Shiites, Christians, and anyone branded an “unbeliever.”
In this scenario, Syria would become a global hub for jihad and those foreign fighters who took part in the war would return to their home countries and potentially carry out similar tactics used in Syria, posing a potential threat. The Pandora ’s Box of radicalism has already been opened in Syria, and the only chance of closing it will come through a partnership between the Syrian government and those groups who allege to be moderates.
When Vladimir Putin met with Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia in August, the newly appointed Intelligence Chief reportedly tried to cut a deal with Moscow by promising to buy billions in Russian arms and pledging not to challenge Russian gas sales to Europe in exchange for withdrawing support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Though later refuted by the Kremlin, the media reports suggested that Bandar told Putin to forget about any political solution to the Syrian conflict.
In addition to being the main propagator of a militant anti-Shiite form of Islam that many rebel fighters subscribe to, the Saudi monarchy has become the chief financier of anti-Assad movements aimed at toppling the Syrian government and weakening its allies in Iran and Hezbollah. Russian diplomatic sources claim that the August 21 chemical weapons attack in the suburbs of Damascus was carried out by a Saudi-black op team with support from the Liwa Al-Islam group, a hardline militia headed by the son of a Saudi-based Salafi cleric.
Following the attack in August, Saudi Arabian diplomats pressured Obama to take military action – the collective message was, "You can't as president draw a line and then not respect it."
The Saudi strategy consisted of staging the August 21 attack that Assad’s forces would be credited with, and using it to support foreign intervention to topple Damascus.
The landmark chemical weapon disarmament deal hatched by Russia tripped the House of Saud and prevented US unilateral actions against Syria, but Assad’s opponents are by no means ready to explore a political solution to the conflict.
Washington claims to be working towards Geneva-2, but, like many rebel groups, maintains that Assad should resign before any talks take place. Essentially, this position is a form of blackmail of Russia and Assad’s allies – it calls for either the Western-backed opposition in exile to absorb executive power, or a prolonged military conflict. Assad’s opponents are not serious about a political solution, as demanding that one party resigns as a precondition before the other party can negotiate completely undermines the premise of dialogue to begin with.
A civil war within a civil war
The main feature of the Syrian battleground is that armed groups of the opposition are becoming more and more split and prone to infighting.
Recent fighting between the Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant group against battalions linked to the Western-backed Free Syrian Army have killed dozens in Aleppo; this discord between rebel groups paints of a picture of what Syria could look like even if Assad is toppled.
The levels of instability seen today in Libya and Iraq are an indication of how bad things can get when lawless militias are empowered in the absence of a central governing authority. If Assad’s opponents had their way in Syria, dozens of groups would take advantage of the post-Assad power vacuum to vie for control. This means that although the Baath-dominated political establishment would be toppled, it would certainly not result in an end to the conflict, only the beginning of a new and more ruthless chapter.
The Free Syrian Army is increasingly losing clout on the ground as rival groups refuse to take orders from their command structure, which is gradually being viewed with suspicion by other rebel battalions due to its links with Washington.
Islamist factions such as Jabhat Al-Nusra, the Farouq Brigade, and Jaish Al-Islam seek to form a new caliphate with Damascus as its capital. This new state would be subservient to Saudi Arabia and its brand of ideological Wahhabism and it would reject an inclusive secular framework; it would be hostile to Alawites, Shiites, Christians, and anyone branded an “unbeliever.”
In this scenario, Syria would become a global hub for jihad and those foreign fighters who took part in the war would return to their home countries and potentially carry out similar tactics used in Syria, posing a potential threat. The Pandora ’s Box of radicalism has already been opened in Syria, and the only chance of closing it will come through a partnership between the Syrian government and those groups who allege to be moderates.
Moderate war criminal vs. Radical war criminal
The distinction is often made between the radical Islamist elements and the more secular and moderate elements of Syria’s opposition, but it should not be forgotten that both camps are widely credited with war crimes by various human rights organizations.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) recently published a compelling report detailing a systematically planned campaign against civilians in the pro-government Alawite-stronghold of Latakia, where nearly 200 innocents were killed by means of torture, beheading, and execution. Although the report details how several private donors from Gulf countries contributed funds to rebel groups, the report falls short in its failure to ask tough political questions about the sources of funding.
Syria’s opposition militias are more mercenaries than rebels, and the significant resources they’ve amassed signal massive state-sponsorship. Saudi Arabia and the CIA have been the principal financiers of rebel groups, and although it is publically denied, the massive influx of arms they’ve provided for the conflict have empowered radical elements in Syria – to gloss over these realities would be negligent.
As the chief of Saudi Intelligence, Prince Bandar is now building a new strategy that would see Riyadh’s central foreign-policy goal of toppling Assad realized. As long as that goal comes to fruition, the secular or radical orientation of the militias really does not make a difference.
Bandar’s aim is to broaden Saudi Arabia’s regional clout so as to position himself strategically when the next royal succession takes place. As Washington and Riyadh evidently have no interest in a political solution, a new pretext would be required to escalate the conflict to force Assad out. If chemical weapons are used again, Assad can either be blamed for their use or blamed for allowing rebels to capture his stockpiles. Intervention can be justified on the basis of “punishing” Assad or under the mandate of peacekeeping and humanitarianism.
If the work of the foreign inspectors, tasked with dismantling Syria’s chemical stockpiles, is disrupted, or if either party harms OPCW personnel, this can also be another channel that would allow Washington to threaten Assad with unilateral strikes and other consequences. If the Obama administration is truly interested in resolving this conflict, it should tell Bandar to halt and freeze its aid to the rebels in exchange for dialogue with Assad, with no preconditions under the framework of Geneva-2.
This story originally appeared on RT.com
Nile Bowie is a Malaysia-based political analyst and a
columnist with Russia Today. He also contributes to PressTV, Global
Research, and CounterPunch. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.
Iran Strongly Rejects Text of Geneva Agreement Released by White House
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13920905001087
TEHRAN
(FNA)- The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday called invalid a press
release by the White House alleged to be the text of the nuclear
agreement struck by Iran and the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia, China,
Britain and France plus Germany) in Geneva on Sunday.
“What has been released by the website of the White House as a fact
sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and
some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of
the Joint Plan of Action (the title of the Iran-powers deal), and this
fact sheet has unfortunately been translated and released in the name of
the Geneva agreement by certain media, which is not true,” Foreign
Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham said on Tuesday.
She said that the four-page text under the name of the Joint Plan of
Action (which has been released by the Iranian foreign ministry) was the
result of the agreement reached during the Geneva talks and all of its
sentences and words were chosen based on the considerations of all
parties to the talks. In fact one of the reasons why negotiations
between Iran and the G5+1 took so long pertained to the accuracy which
was needed for choosing the words for the text of the agreement, Afkham
said, explaining that the Iranian delegation was much rigid and laid
much emphasis on the need for this accuracy.
Afkham said that the text of the Joint Plan of Action was provided to the media a few hours after the two sides agreed on it.
After the White House released a modified version of the deal struck
by Iran and the six world powers in Geneva early Sunday morning, the
Iranian Foreign Ministry released the text of the agreement.
The full text of the deal is as follows:
Geneva, 24 November 2013
Joint Plan of Action
Preamble
The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed
long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iran's nuclear
programme will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no
circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This
comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result
in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of
concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy
its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant
articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This
comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment
programme with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the
peaceful nature of the programme. This comprehensive solution would
constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything
is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal,
step-bystep process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all
UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national
sanctions related to Iran's nuclear programme.
There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and
the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN
Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a
satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council's consideration of this
matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and
implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive
solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be
established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and
address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for
verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work
with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of
concern.
Elements of a first step The first step would be time-bound, with a
duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all
parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations
in good faith. Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:
• From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working
stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the
remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.
• Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.
• Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its
activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant1, Fordow2, or the Arak
reactor3, designated by the IAEA as IR-40.
• Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to
UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up
to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational
schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.
• No new locations for the enrichment.
• Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its
current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for
accumulation of the enriched uranium.
• No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
• Enhanced monitoring:
o Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including
information on Iran's plans for nuclear facilities, a description of
each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of
operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities,
information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source
material. This information would be provided within three months of the
adoption of these measures.
o Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.
o Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards
Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.
o Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the
purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory
Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced
inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records,
at Fordow and Natanz.
o IAEA inspector managed access to:
centrifuge assembly workshops4;
centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and, uranium mines and mills.
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Footnotes:
1 Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the
centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional
centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will
replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.
2 At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not
feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades.
Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.
3 Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the
reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or
transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test
additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install
remaining components.
4 Consistent with its plans, Iran's centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.
In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:
• Pause efforts to further reduce Iran's crude oil sales, enabling
Iran's current customers to purchase their current average amounts of
crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held
abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on
associated insurance and transportation services.
• Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:
o Iran's petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated
services.5 o Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on
associated services.
• Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran's auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.
• License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for
safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services.
License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as
associated services.6
• No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.
• No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.
• The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the
Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.
• Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for
Iran's domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad.
Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and
agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses
incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and
non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the
channel.
o This channel could also enable:
transactions required to pay Iran's UN obligations; and, direct
tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students
studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.
• Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.
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Footnotes
5 "Sanctions on associated services" means any service, such as
insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S.
or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the
underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions.
These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.
6 Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.
Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution*
The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to
conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year
after the adoption of this document, would:
• Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.
• Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA Safeguards Agreements.
• Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national
nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade,
technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.
• Involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed
parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope
and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out,
and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.
• Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.
No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.
• Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced
monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent
with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian
parliament).
• Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among
others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and
associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as
agreed R&D practices.
Following successful implementation of the final step of the
comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear
programme will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear
weapon state party to the NPT.
* With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the
standard principle that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
applies.