Sabtu, 30 Juli 2011

Hisab awal Ramadhan 1432 H...>>> Ahlan Wasahlan Ya Ramadhan Almubarak... Asysyahrul Azhom....>>> Seyogianya Hisab Ramadhan dapat dipersatukan dengan sangat baik... apabila para Ulama Islam mau menyatukan diri dengan niat benar2 untuk ibadah dan melaksanakan syariah secara utuh menyeluruh-kaffah-dan komprehensif....>>> Sesungguhnya dengan niat dan jiwa bersatunya Ulama sebagai imam para Umat Islam akan menjadi kekuatan baru dalam membangun Persatuan Umat, dan penguatan silaturahim dan solidaritas Umat Islam dalam segala segi kepentingan Umat Islam dalam menegakan syariah secara benar secara Al qurĂ¡n dan Sunnah Rasulullah SAW-terpercaya-open mind yang berakhlaqulkarimah-dan menggunakan common sense [akal sehat] yang lurus dan halim....>>> Mungkin kita mencoba dengan mencari titik tengah posisi lokalisasi penetapan waktu secara benar dan adil terlebih dahulu... Misalkan titik area yang berada di tengah itu dalam bentangan siang hari dan malam hari..yang masing2 12 jam....siang dan 12 malam...dengan hari dan tanggal yang sama >>> Kemudian titik daratan yang dihuni umat manusia secara umum dan penyebaran yang relatif luas secara geografis... dan dari titik paling barat dan ke titik paling timur....>> misalkan paling Barat adalah Inggris dan Irladia dan titik paling Timur adalah Jepang atau Kepulauan Melanesia.. di Lautan Teduh [Pasisfik]....misalkan itulah jarak ... yang membentang...dimana Umat manusia menyebar yang memiliki siang selama +/- 12 jam...dihari yang sama >>> Maka dicari titik tengahnya... misalkan ... dari Titik Timur ke Titik Tengah di belahan Baratnya dengan jarak waktu siangnya 6-8 jam rentang waktu.. dan Kemudian ditentukan juga titik paling Barat dengan rentang waktu 6-8 jam jarak siangnya ke titik tengah di belahan timur dengan rentang waktu 6-8 jam. Maka itulah titik Timur dimana masing2 masih memiliki siang di hari dan tanggal yang sama..>> Nah kalau demikian maka lokasi yang dipilih itu akan pula memiliki raentang waktu relatif yang sama dimalam hari ...yang berarti rentang waktu siang dan malam yang memiliki hari yang sama tersebut bisa menentukan tengah2nya...>> Kemudian diperhatikan sebaran umat manusia yang tinggal dan domisili didaerah tersebut untuk lebih aplikatif dalam manfaat penetuan lokasi tersebut...>> Secara sederhana misalkan saja ...bahwa sebaran umat manusia dari belahan Barat di sekitar Inggris dan Irlandia dan titik paling timur adalah di Lautan Teduh sekitar Kepulauan yang tersebar di Melanesia... Dan jarak tengah waktu adalah disekitar Makkah dan sekitarnya..atau daerah Saudi Arabia..sampai Maghribi di Afrika Barat dan Arabia sampai Iran diTimur sebagai titik sentral...masing2 +/- 4 jam kebarat dan 4 jam ke timur... maka rentang waktu tengah pun sekitar 6-8 jam pada siang yang sama dihari yang sama...[ini misalkan..] >>> Maka apabila... yah.. apabila... direntang tengah dengan batas barat dan timur itu sudah melihat bulan atau apapun yang dijadikan indikator sebagai dimulainya awal Ramadhan dan atau akhir Ramadhan... >>> Maka rentang dari titik paling timur di Lautan Teduh dan Rentang paling barat di sekitar Inggris dan Irladia... bisa memmulai dan mengakhiri Ramadhan... pada hari dan tanggal yang sama... Dan pelaksanaannya setiap daerah dan lokasi akan sesuai realitas ketentuan ayat2 yaitu saat fajar terbit dan terbenam matahari disetiap lokasi yang tentu ini akan bervariasi... namun hari dan tanggal insya Allah akan sama dan tidak ada yang lebih dahulu atau lebih kemudian... dan perbedaan hanya dalam jamnya...saat terbit fajar dan terbenam matahari...>>> Semoga menjadi Renungan..para cendekia-Ulama-Para Cerdik pandai dan Ahli2 Fiqh... yang tentu semua ada pertimbangan2 kemaslahat-praktis dan nilai2 kemuliaan ilmu dan hikmah...dan insya Allah akan melegakan segenap Umat Islam yang benar2 rindu akan Persatuan-Silaturahim-Solidaritas dan kekhusukan..melaksanakan ibadah dengan lenih baik-lebih yakin- khusyuk dan semoga kita dalam ridha dan rahmat hidayah-inayah-maunah-ma'rifah dari curahan ke Maha Muliaan Allah Maha Rahman Rahim... >> Selamat shaum Ramadhan Aklmubarak.... Allahumma bariklana fie rajabi wasysya'bani waballigh ramadhana birahmatika ya Arhamarrahaimin..... Amin...

Hisab awal Ramadhan 1432 H

Sabtu, 30/07/2011 09:40 WIB | Versi Cetak

Bulan Sya'ban 1432 H tinggal beberapa hari lagi. Sebentar lagi umat Islam akan memasuki bulan Ramadhan 1432 H. Menjelang kedatangan bulan suci ini, hendaknya ummat Islam mempersiapkan diri dengan sebaik-baiknya agar ibadah-ibadah yang dilakukan selama bulan Ramadhan tersebut dapat dilakukan secara optimal.
Dalam tulisan ini, penulis bermaksud menjelaskan proses perhitungan atau hisab datangnya bulan Ramadhan 1432 H. Pada akhirnya, untuk umat Islam di Indonesia, keputusan datangnya bulan Ramadhan akan diputuskan oleh pemerintah Indonesia, dalam hal ini Menteri Agama. Karena itu perhitungan disini hanyalah berfungsi untuk memberikan perkiraan (yang akurat) bagi siapa saja yang ingin mengetahui bagaimana cara menghisab.
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Menentukan konjungsi geosentrik
Seperti biasa, perhitungan dimulai dengan menentukan kapan terjadinya bulan baru (new moon) atau konjungsi geosentrik. Yang dimaksud dengan konjungsi geosentrik adalah ketika menurut pusat bumi (geosentrik), matahari dan bulan memiliki bujur ekliptika (dalam koordinat ekliptika geosentrik) yang sama. (Sebagai catatan tambahan, bujur ekliptika ini adalah bujur ekliptika yang nampak (apparent) yaitu bujur ekliptika sejati ditambah dengan faktor koreksi seperti koreksi aberasi dan nutasi.) Disini, kita akan gunakan lima data perhitungan dari algoritma atau sumber yang berbeda.
Hasil perhitungan pertama, fase bulan baru (new moon) dihitung secara langsung menggunakan algoritma Meeus, maka untuk datangnya bulan Ramadhan ini, konjungsi geosentrik Insya Allah terjadi pada tanggal 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:39:47 UT atau tanggal 31 Juli 2011 pukul 01:39:47 WIB.
Hasil perhitungan kedua , jika kita gunakan perhitungan bujur ekliptika nampak geosentrik untuk bulan dan matahari dengan menggunakan algoritma Meeus, kita peroleh bulan dan matahari keduanya memiliki bujur ekliptika nampak geosentrik yang sama pada 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:39:45 UT atau tanggal 31 Juli 2011 pukul 01:39:45 WIB, yang berarti hanya berselisih dua detik dari perhitungan di atas. Pada waktu tersebut, bujur ekliptika nampak geosentrik bulan dan matahari adalah 127 derajat 15 menit busur 56 detik busur atau 127:15:56 D:M:S.
Hasil perhitungan ketiga, NASA merilis data fase bulan baru yang jatuh pada 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:40 UT (lihat di http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html kemudian lihat data new moon untuk tahun 2011). Hasil ini tentu saja sama hingga menit terdekat dengan dua perhitungan di atas, karena NASA juga menggunakan algoritma Meeus.
Hasil perhitungan keempat, Steve Moshier (http://www.moshier.net/) juga menghitung data tabel bulan baru sejak 3000 tahun sebelum Masehi hingga tahun 3000 Masehi dengan menggunakan algoritma DE406 (http://www.moshier.net/newmoontab.zip). Untuk kejadian ini, bulan baru jatuh pada Julian Day Ephemeris 2455773.2784 TD atau 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:40:54 TD. Karena masih dalam satuan TD (Dynamical Time), maka jika dikonversi ke UT harus dikurangi dengan Delta_T untuk tahun 2011 sebesar 67 detik sehingga fase bulan baru menjadi 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:39:47 UT. Hasil ini tepat sama dengan hasil perhitungan fase bulan menggunakan algoritma Meeus di atas.
Hasil perhitungan kelima, dari software Accurate Times karya Mohamad Odeh, data fase-fase bulan juga dapat diperoleh. Perlu diketahui, software Accurate Times ini menggunakan data koreksi VSOP87 untuk matahari dan ELP untuk bulan. Untuk bulan baru yang kita tinjau kali ini, dengan menggunakan Delta_T = 67 detik, diperoleh fase bulan baru geosentrik pada 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:39:47 UT.
Dari lima data perhitungan di atas, dapat disimpulkan bahwa fase bulan baru atau konjungsi geosentrik jika dibulatkan ke menit terdekat terjadi pada 30 Juli 2011 pukul 18:40 UT atau 31 Juli 2011 pukul 01:40 WIB.
(Sebagai catatan: konjungsi geosentrik di atas terjadi ketika pusat matahari, pusat bulan dan pusat bumi berada pada suatu bidang yang sama, dalam hal ini bidang ini tegaklurus pada bidang ekliptika. Karena itu faktor lokasi di permukaan bumi tidak berpenngaruh sama sekali pada proses perhitungan di atas. Namun jika yang ditunjau adalah konjungsi toposentrik, yang berarti pusat matahari, pusat bulan dan suatu lokasi di permukaan bumi terletak segaris, atau juga berarti pusat matahari dan pusat bulan memiliki bujur ekliptika toposentrik yang sama menurut suatu lokasi, maka waktu terjadinya konjungsi toposentrik akan bergantung dari setiap lokasi. Sebagai contoh, menurut Jakarta (106:51 BT, 06:09 LS, 0 m) konjungsi toposentrik terjadi pada pukul 01:05 WIB sedangkan menurut Surabaya (112:43 BT, 07:13 LS, 0 m) adalah pukul 00:59 WIB. Disini, konjungsi toposentrik tidak akan dibahas.)
***
Lunasi dan umur Sya'ban 1432 H
Data fase bulan baru sebelumnya untuk datangnya bulan Sya'ban 1432 H adalah 1 Juli 2011 pukul 15:54 WIB. Dengan demikian, lunasi bulan untuk Sya'ban 1432 H adalah 29 hari 9 jam 46 menit. Lama lunasi ini sedikit lebih kecil dari rata-rata 1 bulan sinodik yang besarnya 29 hari 12 jam 44 menit.
Dari berbagai sumber, 1 Sya'ban 1432 H di Indonesia jatuh pada hari Ahad, 3 Juli 2011. Selanjutnya, hisab serta rukyah akan dilakukan pada tanggal Ahad, 31 Juli 2011 saat maghrib di lokasi-lokasi setempat. Jika hisab dan rukyah menunjukkan hasil positif pada maghrib 31 Juli 2011, berarti 1 Ramadhan 1432 H jatuh pada 1 Agustus 2011, yang sekaligus menunjukkan bahwa Sya'ban 1432 H berisi 29 hari.
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Hisab bulan dan matahari
Proses perhitungan azimuth (arah mata angin) dan altitude (ketinggian dari ufuk) posisi bulan dan matahari membutuhkan beberapa variabel, yaitu (1) lokasi yang meliputi bujur geografis, lintang geografis serta ketinggian lokasi dari permukaan laut, (2) waktu perhitungan, yaitu tahun - bulan - tanggal - jam - menit - detik. Tahun - bulan - tanggal sudah ditetapkan, yaitu 31 Juli 2011. Adapun untuk jam - menit - detik, ini bergantung pada kapan akan dihitung. Jika dihitung pada saat matahari terbenam, berarti waktu matahari terbenam pada 31 Juli 2011 bergantung kepada lokasi di atas. Dengan kata lain, jika sudah ditetapkan hisab akan dilakukan pada waktu matahari terbenam, berarti variabelnya adalah tanggal-bulan-tahun serta lokasi tersebut.
Disini, lokasi yang akan dipilih adalah pantai Parangkusumo, Yogyakarta dengan koordinat 110:18 BT, 08:01 LS dan 0 meter di atas permukaan laut. Disini sengaja dipilih lokasi tersebut karena Insya Allah pada tanggal 31 Juli 2011, penulis bersama-sama dengan komunitas rukyatul hilal di Yogyakarta akan melakukan observasi hilal di tempat tersebut.
Berikut ini hasil perhitungan, baik menurut geosentrik maupun toposentrik.
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Sunset
Pada 31 Juli 2011 di Parangkusumo, matahari Insya Allah terbenam (sunset) pada pukul 17:38:05 WIB, baik menurut geosentrik maupun toposentrik. Kondisi yang terjadi pada saat matahari terbenam adalah ketika ketinggian (true altitude) matahari pada waktu tersebut sama dengan minus koreksi refraksi dikurangi dengan sudut jari-jari matahari. Koreksi refraksi / pembiasan atmosfer adalah 34 menit busur atau 00:34:00 derajat, sedangkan sudut jari-jari matahari saat itu adalah 15 menit busur 45 detik busur atau 00:15:45 derajat, sehingga ketinggian (true altitude) matahari pada saat terbenam di Parangkusumo adalah minus 00:34:00 derajat dikurangi 00:15:45 derajat = minus 00:49:45 derajat. Ketinggian matahari sebesar minus 00:49:45 terjadi pada pukul 17:38:05 WIB.
(sebagai catatan tambahan, jika ketinggian lokasi tidak nol atau sama dengan h bersatuan meter, maka true altitude matahari saat terbenam = minus koreksi refraksi dikurangi dengan sudut jari-jari matahari dikurangi 0.0347*h^(1/2). Tanda * dan ^ masing-masing menunjukkan perkalian dan pangkat. Artinya saat matahari terbenam, true altitude matahari untuk ketinggian h di atas permukaan laut bernilai lebih rendah daripada true altitude matahari di permukaan laut. Sehingga, matahari terbenam lebih terlambat jika diamati di ketinggian tertentu dibandingkan dengan di permukaan laut.)
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Moonset
Pada 31 Juli 2011 di Parangkusumo, bulan Insya Allah terbenam (moonset) pada pukul 18:09:23 WIB, baik menurut geosentrik maupun toposentrik. Kondisi yang terjadi pada saat bulan terbenam adalah ketika ketinggian (true altitude) bulan pada waktu tersebut sama dengan minus koreksi refraksi ditambah dengan 0.7275*sudut paralaks bulan. Sudut paralaks bulan saat itu adalah 59 menit busur 23 detik busur atau 00:59:23 derajat, sehingga ketinggian (true altitude) bulan pada saat terbenam di Parangkusumo adalah minus 00:34:00 derajat + 0.7275*(00:59:23) derajat = positif 9 menit busur 7 detik busur = 00:09:07 derajat.
Selanjutnya, waktu moonset di Parangkusumo dibulatkan ke menit terdekat, yaitu pukul 18:09 WIB
(sebagai catatan tambahan, jika ketinggian lokasi tidak nol atau sama dengan h bersatuan meter, maka true altitude bulan saat terbenam = minus koreksi refraksi ditambah dengan 0.7275*sudut paralaks bulan dikurangi 0.0347*h^(1/2).)
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Catatan tentang Sunset dan Moonset
Meeus menulis dalam bukunya Astronomical Algorithm bahwa terbit dan terbenamnya matahari dipengaruhi oleh faktor pembiasan atmosfer. Efek pembiasan ini bergantung pada temperatur di permukaan bumi, serta tekanan atmosfer. Ternyata pembiasan juga bergantung pada panjang gelombang cahaya matahari. Karena itu koreksi atmosfer sebesar 34 menit busur sebenarnya merupakan pendekatan saja. Ditambah lagi dengan penelitian Schaefer dan Liller tentang fluktuasi pembiasan di dekat horison sebesar 0,3 derajat, maka Meeus menulis, "it should be mentioned here that giving rising and setting times of a body more accurately than to the nearest minute makes no sense." Maknanya adalah ketelitian dalam menentukan waktu terbit dan terbenam suatu benda langit tidak lebih dari menit terdekat. Secara teori memang kita bisa menghitung hingga dalam satuan detik, tetapi itu tidak ada maknanya (makes no sense) karena banyaknya ketidakpastian seperti tersebut di atas. Karena itu dalam menentukan kapan matahari dan bulan terbit atau terbenam, pada akhirnya secara fisis kita mesti menentukannya hingga menit terdekat, bukan detik.
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Umur bulan saat Sunset dan Selisih Moonset dan Sunset
Selanjutnya kita bulatkan ke menit terdekat untuk waktu sunset di Parangkusumo, yaitu pada pukul 17:38 WIB. Karena konjungsi geosentrik terjadi pada pukul 01:40 WIB, maka umur bulan saat sunset sama dengan waktu sunset dikurangi waktu konjungsi geosentrik sama dengan 15 jam 58 menit.
Selanjutnya Selisih Moonset dan Sunset adalah Waktu Moonset dikurangi Sunset = 18:09 - 17:38 = 31 menit.
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Data matahari dan bulan saat sunset
Meskipun waktu sunset (dan moonset) telah dibulatkan hingga menit terdekat, untuk sementara ini data azimuth dan altitude matahari dan bulan masih ditulis hingga detik busur terdekat. Pada akhirnya hasilnya nanti akan dibulatkan.
Saat sunset di Parangkusumo, azimuth geosentrik dan true altitude geosentrik matahari berturut-turut adalah 288:21:25 derajat dan minus 00:49:45 derajat, sedangkan azimuth geosentrik dan true altitude bulan geosentrik berturut-turut adalah 283:08:48 derajat dan positif 07:26:05 derajat. Dengan demikian selisih azimuth geosentrik adalah 05:12:36 derajat, sedangkan selisih altitude geosentrik adalah 08:15:50 derajat. Dapat dihitung pula besar sudut elongasi geosentrik antara bulan dan matahari saat sunset sebesar 09:45:44 derajat. Selanjutnya, besar iluminasi geosentrik bulan saat sunset adalah 0,73%.
Sementara untuk hasil toposentrik, azimuth toposentrik dan true altitude toposentrik matahari berturut-turut adalah 288:21:25 derajat dan minus 00:49:54 derajat, sedangkan azimuth toposentrik dan true altitude bulan toposentrik berturut-turut adalah 283:08:45 derajat dan positif 06:27:05 derajat. Dengan demikian selisih azimuth toposentrik adalah 05:12:39 derajat, sedangkan selisih altitude toposentrik adalah 07:17:00 derajat. Dapat dihitung pula besar sudut elongasi toposentrik antara bulan dan matahari saat sunset sebesar 08:56:59 derajat. Selanjutnya, besar iluminasi toposentrik bulan saat sunset adalah 0,61%.
Disini, sudut elongasi adalah besarnya sudut pemisah antara pusat matahari dengan pusat bulan. Semakin besar sudut elongasi, maka bulan akan semakin mudah terlihat saat sunset. Sementara iluminasi adalah perbandingan antara luasan cakram bulan yang memantulkan cahaya matahari dengan luasan cakram total. Saat bulan baru, iluminasi = 0 %, sedangkan saat bulan purnama, iluminasi = 100 %. Semakin besar iluminasi, semakin mudah pula bulan akan terlihat.
Dari data di atas, nampak bahwa azimuth toposentrik tidak jauh berbeda dengan azimuth geosentrik, baik untuk matahari maupun bulan. Adapun altitude toposentrik matahari bernilai 9 detik busur lebih rendah daripada azimuth geosentrik matahari, dimana 9 detik busur ini adalah sudut paralaks matahari. Sedangkan altitude toposentrik bulan bernilai sekitar 59 menit busur lebih rendah daripada altitude geosentrik bulan, sebab nilai tersebut bersumber dari sudut paralaks bulan sebesar 59 menit 23 detik busur. Perlu diketahui bahwa sudut paralaks suatu benda langit merupakan perbandingan antara jari-jari bumi dengan jarak bumi ke benda langit tersebut.
Selanjutnya, selisih azimuth toposentrik dapat dikatakan hampir sama dengan selisih azimuth geosentrik, yaitu sekitar 5,2 derajat. Sedangkan selisih altitude toposentrik sekitar 7,3 derajat adalah lebih kecil sekitar satu derajat dari selisih altitude geosentrik sekitar 8,25 derajat. Akhirnya, sudut elongasi toposentrik adalah sekitar 8,85 derajat, bernilai sekitar 0,9 derajat lebih kecil daripada sudut elongasi geosentrik yang bernilai sekitar 9,75 derajat.
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Bagaimanakah dengan kemungkinan pengamatan hilal di tempat-tempat lain di Indonesia?
Di bagian timur Indonesia, seperti di Jayapura (140:38 BT, 2:28 LU), sunset terjadi pada 17:51 WIT, dimana pada saat itu, selisih altitude geosentrik bulan dengan matahari sekitar 6,2 derajat sedangkan untuk toposentrik sekitar 5,2 derajat. Dengan azimuth bulan sekitar 6,3 derajat di sebelah selatan matahari saat terbenam, maka elongasi geosentrik 8,8 derajat dan toposentrik 8,2 derajat.
Di Manado saat sunset, selisih altitude geosentrik bulan dengan matahari sekitar 6,8 derajat sedangkan untuk toposentrik sekitar 5,8 derajat. Dengan azimuth bulan sekitar 6,4 derajat di sebelah selatan matahari saat terbenam, maka elongasi geosentrik 9,4 derajat dan toposentrik 8,7 derajat.
Di Jakarta saat sunset, selisih altitude geosentrik bulan dengan matahari sekitar 8,2 derajat sedangkan untuk toposentrik sekitar 7,2 derajat. Dengan azimuth bulan sekitar 5,5 derajat di sebelah selatan matahari saat terbenam, maka elongasi geosentrik 9,9 derajat dan toposentrik 9,1 derajat.
Di Banda Aceh saat sunset, selisih altitude geosentrik bulan dengan matahari sekitar 7,4 derajat sedangkan untuk toposentrik sekitar 6,4 derajat. Dengan azimuth bulan sekitar 7,4 derajat di sebelah selatan matahari saat terbenam, maka elongasi geosentrik 10,4 derajat dan toposentrik 9,8 derajat.
Dari beberapa data di atas, nampak bahwa di Indonesia selisih ketinggian bulan dengan matahari saat sunset berkisar dari rentang 5 hingga 8 derajat. Dengan Dengan azimuth bulan bervariasi sekitar 5 hingga 7 derajat di sebelah selatan matahari saat matahari terbenam, maka akhirnya diperoleh elongasi berkisar dari 8 hingga 10 derajat.
Berdasarkan data hisab di atas, nampaknya ada peluang besar hilal dapat diamati pada 31 Juli 2011 maghrib. Jika dapat diamati, dan selanjutnya diakui dan diputuskan oleh Pemerintah Indonesia, dalam hal ini Menteri Agama, maka 1 Ramadhan 1432 H Insya Allah akan jatuh pada 1 Agustus 2011.
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Demikian beberapa paparan singkat tentang prediksi awal Ramadhan 1432 H. Banyak kalangan sepakat bahwa awal Ramadhan 1432 H Insya Allah akan jatuh pada 1 Agustus 2011. Semoga bermanfaat.
Sedikit tambahan, dalam rangka menyebarluaskan ilmu falak dengan niat ikhlas dan mengharap pahala dari Allah SWT, bagi kalangan masyarakat umum, masjid dan sebagainya yang ingin mengetahui ilmu falak secara lebih detail lewat kajian yang intensif, silakan hubungi penulis:
Dr. Eng. Rinto Anugraha
Dosen Fisika UGM / Kepala Lab Fisika Material dan Instrumentasi Jurusan Fisika UGM
Email rinto@ugm.ac.id
0858 - 7839 - empat nol lima empat
Krangkungan, Condong Catur, Sleman Yogyakarta

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Yang penting adalah menyatukan pandanagan dan pendapat bahwa penggunaan perhitungan tersebut disepakati dunia dan ummat islam....Sekarang orang memakai jam dengan tepat menetapkan waktu sholat mengapa waktu bulan tidak ada kesepakatan??? Dimana keinsapan ummat islam untuk memakai ilmu dan teknologi...???Apa yang dicari....??? 
 
Sdrku semua hasrat mulia ini insya Allah....bisa... asal ada niyat dan kemauan para Ulama dan para Cendekia muslim secara menyatu dan kaffah... Amin... Insya Allah bisa dan sangat realistis... Amin....

Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

National Debt Tops $14 Trillion.....>>> Breakdown of Government Spending, as Percent of GDP and some explanation as comrehensive matter.>>> Special Note: This model of Government preaparing Budget that financing by so giant Debt ... event thoug its looks still reasonable comparing to GDP Budget... is not good for Indonesia .. due to the people of Indonesia are mostly so high consumptive life and most educated people most likely prefer to be civil workers or such white colar workers.. than to work for producing real goods and services and or developing agricultura industries or such goods and services industries oriented in real. May be the derivative business such as non real goods and service business should be postponed or temporarely ceased. For Indonesian Government and whole Indonesian is much better see and followimg the China Budget system and economics development... that should be more directed productive oriented and developing agricultures and diversified and multi-industries oriented....>>> USA model may be we can take study for some social welfare program such as sisial security, medicare, madicaid, education care .... >>> The important thing is developing goods and service industries in any economic layers and sectors...>>> Stop developing political in neo barbar liberal that so high cost and too expensive cost burden to the people... including Government Debts due to following financial system as the same ground basis...>>> Be commonsense... real business development and more justice.for rural and middle and low level economics society..

January 3, 2011 5:57 PM

National Debt Tops $14 Trillion

By Mark Knoller
Topics  Economy ,
  White House

The latest posting today of the National Debt shows it has topped $14 trillion for the first time.
The U.S. Treasury website today reported that as of last Friday, the last day of 2010, the National Debt stood at $14,025,215,218,708.52.
It took just 7 months for the National Debt to increase from $13 trillion on June 1, 2010 to $14 trillion on Dec. 31. It also means the debt is fast approaching the statutory ceiling $14.294 trillion set by Congress and signed into law by President Obama last February.
The federal government would have to stop borrowing and might even default on its obligations if Congress fails to increase the Debt Ceiling before the limit is reached.
Some Republicans in the new Congress have said they'll seek to block an increase in the Debt Ceiling unless a plan is in place to significantly reduce federal spending and unfunded government liabilities on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee warned yesterday that it would be "catastrophic" if the U.S. Government were to default on its financial obligations.
"That would be the first default in history caused purely by insanity," said Goolsbee of plans to block an increase in the Debt Ceiling.


Breakdown of Government Spending, as Percent of GDP

This chart shows how government spending in fiscal year 2010 was split between Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense and the rest of the federal budget.

Information from the Office of Management and Budge

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-250_162-10008800-2.html#ixzz1TVz7ryxw

The History of Social Security

President Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act into law in 1935 in the midst of the Great Depression. The initial version of the law only benefited the primary worker of the family, but by the time the first benefits were paid out in 1940, the law had been amended to include survivor benefits and the benefits for the retiree's spouse and children. The law was amended again in 1956 to include disability benefits.

In 1981, a scare resulted from predictions that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, where Social Security benefits were paid from, would run out money in August 1983. Congress and the president created the bipartisan National commission on Social Security Reform to suggest a solution. In 1983, the commission issued a report that lead to the 1983 Social Security Amendments, which allowed the money to be taken off-budget and invested in U.S. Treasury bonds.

This year, the program will pay out $726 billion this year and is expected grow to $1.2 trillion a year by 2020. Current projections expect the Social Security to run out of money in 2035, without changes to the system

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-250_162-10008800-3.html#ixzz1TVyb3tUJ

The History of Medicare

As the government has grown, spending on the social safety net for Americans has grown with it. Today, the number of people enrolled in Medicare grows at an average 2 percent a year. The program costs $574 billion a year and is expected to cost $1 trillion a year by 2020.

President Lyndon Baines Johnson established Medicare with the passage of the Social Security Act of 1965. Prior to passage, almost half of seniors lived without health insurance. Medicare Part A focused on hospital care, while Part B covered supplemental medical insurance for those over 65 years old. In 1972 Medicare expanded to include those who received Social Security benefits or disability payments for at least two years. Part C is the Medicare Advantage, which provides additional coverage and Part D is the prescription drug benefit added in 2003.


 

Government spending, percent of GDP

This chart shows the proportion of Gross Domestic Product taken up by the federal budget over the last 70 years. The first spike shows government spending during World War II.

Information from the Office of Management and Budget.


Raising the Debt Ceiling

The debt limit was put in place to prevent the Treasury from issuing new debt to cover short term bills. Congress implemented the first debt limit in 1917 as part of the Second Liberty Bond Act. The law delegated the approval of individual bonds to the Treasury, but still allowed Congress to have control over the country's finances. The limit applies to debt issued to the public and debt borrowed from the government?s accounts, such as Social Security, Medicare, Transportation and Civil Service Retirement funds.

The debt ceiling has been raised or extended 78 times since 1960, 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents, including 3 times under President Obama and 7 times under President George W. Bush.




U.S. Debt, 1950-2010

This chart shows the amount of government debt over the last 60 years. It does not take inflation into account.

Information from the Office of Management and Budget.

the Obamas vs Congress can be in two or three possibilities matters:>> SEC Rips Wall Street For Fraud, Abuse..>> Presidents and Their Debt: From FDR To Obama>>“At the end of fiscal 1980, four months before Reagan was inaugurated, the federal debt held by the public was $711.9 billion, according to CBO. At the end of fiscal 1989, eight months after Reagan left office, the federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion. That means that in the nine-fiscal-year period of 1980-89--which included all of Reagan’s eight years in office--the federal debt held by the public increased $1.4788 trillion. That is in excess of a trillion dollars less than the $2.5260 increase in the debt held by the public during Obama’s first 19 months.” As of June, once the national debt passed $13 trillion mark the Obama administration had increased the debt by $3.398 trillion in just 710 days. ..>>..Republican disarray and Democrat gloating is not a recipe for solving the US debt crisis and heading off financial turmoil ...>>..US debt ceiling deal talks – as it happened>>>


SEC Rips Wall Street For Fraud, Abuse

Posted by Wealth Wire - Thursday, July 28th, 2011
Yesterday the SEC issued a scathing report stemming from a broad review of Wall Street firms’ sales of structured products to their retail customers. After its comprehensive study, the SEC staff concluded that the Street was rife with “fraud and abusive sales practices” as well as faulty training and lax supervision. 
Specifically, the SEC has found that the firms: 
§         recommended unsuitable structured products to their customers;
§         omitted material facts about the structured products they pitched;
§         engaged in questionable sales practices; and
§         treated their customers unfairly in secondary-market sales, including charging outsized commissions
For years we have been warning investors about the dangers of these opaque derivatives with their catchy names, exotic benchmarks, hidden commissions and shaky issuers.  Now it appears the federal regulators have reached the same conclusion many of our clients learned the hard way: Wall Street’s creativity in separating investors from their money knows no bounds!
Analyzing an early 20th-century bout with another brand of ruinous “financial innovation,” the renowned economist John Kenneth Galbraith wrote, “If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale.”  Apparently Wall Street agrees, since Bloomberg now reports that following a brief slowdown in the wake of Lehman’s failure, the sales of structured products in the U.S. reached a record $25.3 billion in the first half of 2011, an increase of 14%.
Whether your brokerage firm is pitching reverse convertibles (products that offer tempting upside but turn, pumpkin-like, into a company’s shares if the stock tanks), so-called “principal protection notes” (ask the Lehman noteholders about that one) or whatever Wall Street’s mad scientists cook up next, buyer beware...

Presidents and Their Debt: From FDR To Obama

Posted by Mike Tirone - Friday, July 22nd, 2011
With the National debt of large concern recently and the debt ceiling debates continuing, many want to see the figures as to what President Barack Obama has done toward the US National Debt. Last year it was reported that Obama added more to National Debt in his first 19 months than all U.S. presidents through Ronald Reagan combined with an increase of $2.5260 trillion. That is more than the cumulative total of the national debt held by the public that was amassed by all U.S presidents from George Washington through Reagan. From CNSnews.com,
“At the end of fiscal 1980, four months before Reagan was inaugurated, the federal debt held by the public was $711.9 billion, according to CBO. At the end of fiscal 1989, eight months after Reagan left office, the federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion. That means that in the nine-fiscal-year period of 1980-89--which included all of Reagan’s eight years in office--the federal debt held by the public increased $1.4788 trillion. That is in excess of a trillion dollars less than the $2.5260 increase in the debt held by the public during Obama’s first 19 months.”
As of June, once the national debt passed $13 trillion mark the Obama administration had increased the debt by $3.398 trillion in just 710 days. The fiscally conservative community is calling for Obama's head as unemployment and inflation continue to hammer the current economy. But lest we not learn from our past presidents and see that debt is practically ingrained in our history. As famed author H.W. Brands said, “Since George Washington, presidents have embraced public debt as an investment in America's future.”

Ronald Reagan:
Start of presidency 1981: US National Debt $997.8 billion
End of presidency 1989: US National Debt $2.1 trillion
Reagan began his presidency with a federal deficit of 2.5% of national economy and ended his two terms with that number doubling to 5%. Just four months into his presidency, Reagan told Congress that high taxes and big spending made the present economic mess and that doing the same won't get the U.S. out of their struggle. That moment cemented Reaganomics and our current economics woes. The Democrats that fell at Reagan's feet has to take their “spend and tax” methods and jump on board the “spend and borrow” Republicanism. To defeat former Vice President Walter Mondale in the 1984 election, Reagan's chief of staff passed him a note. On the note read “Taxes are a big picture issue. If we want to win – and win big – the exigencies of the election force us to solemnly swear that Mondale is the tax increase candidate and Reagan is the no-tax-increase candidate.” The note ended by saying after Reagan get re-elected, he could do whatever he pleased with the generalizations like the deficit. Interestingly enough previous Vice President Dick Cheney said that politically Reagan showed that deficits don't actually matter. Reagan proved that by running up more debt than any prior president and easily won re-election.

Franklin D. Roosevelt:
Start of presidency 1933: US National Debt $22.5 billion
End of presidency 1945: US National Debt $258.5 billion
Our only president elected to more than two terms and the man behind the New Deal many conservatives consider the “tax and spend” policies that lead to incredible fiscal misery. As David Kennedy says, “Yes, Roosevelt was a bold and visionary innovator who substantially rewrote the American social contract [with his signing of Social Security into law in 1935]. But the Beelzebub of the Budget he was not.” Roosevelt was a stubborn fiscal conservative yet was always compared to former president Herbert Hoover's deficit, which he exceeded twice (1934, '36) after the New Deal. In 1936, Roosevelt had the largest absolute deficit of $4.4 billion, or 5.3% of Gross National Product (with help from a overlooked Roosevelt veto from Congress for Bonus Bill $2 billion for World War II vets.) The Roosevelt Recession followed as he produced an austerity budget which drastically reduced government spending and the economy crumbled; unemployment ballooned to 19% from 14% and generated deficits reached nearly 30% of G.N.P.

Lyndon Johnson:
Start of presidency 1963: US National Debt $306 billion
End of presidency 1969: US National Debt $353 billion
LBJ had a lot of issues to deal with in his time in office, particularly in 1968. Fiscally Johnson had to find a way to fund the Vietnam conflict and his Great Society reforms all while anti-war demonstrations, inner city riots and violence in Chicago during the Democratic convention stood in his way. Americans did not want tax increases but an economic collapse was destined if Johnson's plea for a 10% tax surcharge was enacted. Congressional conservatives wanted cuts to domestic spending instead of the surcharge but Johnson said failure to pass a tax surcharge would mean “a major world political defeat for the United States,” and LBJ got what he wanted against 79% of Americans wishes. US National Debt grew by $21 billion in 1968 alone, closing out Johnson's presidency on a very sour note.

Richard Nixon:
Start of presidency 1969: US National Debt $353 billion
End of presidency 1974: US National Debt $475 billion
The proudly proclaimed conservative Keynesian, President Nixon focused much of his early presidency on foreign and domestic economics as he took the reigns from Johnson's dwindling US economy and faced inflation within his first eight months in Washington. He didn't take a high priority on balancing the budget and by 1970, the economy looked to be heading to a recession. Joan Hoff explains,
“Nixon became the first president to submit a budget based on “the high-employment standard,” which meant the country would spend as if it were at full employment to bring about full employment, thus justifying an “acceptable” amount of deficit spending. Second, he dramatically announced in August 1971 what he called the New Economic Policy. The N.E.P. attempted to balance U.S. domestic concerns with wage and price controls and international ones devaluing the dollar.”
He failed to obtain more revenue through tax reform in 1969. With that, unemployment rose to 4.9% in parallel with inflation jumping to 5.7% which set off the federal budget deficit totaling $23.03 billion. But there was positives his N.E.P. as unemployment fell and output rose and he became the only president since World War II to bring an economic upturn in a presidential election year and he was re-elected.

Harry Truman:
Start of presidency 1945: US National Debt $258 billion
End of presidency 1953: US National Debt $266 billion
Truman was the first president since 1930 to reduce the nation debt and according to the numbers, the only president to truly make an effort to cut the debt significantly. His first year in office Truman was preceded by Franklin Roosevelt's big spending to dig the country out of Depression with astronomical year-to-year national debt change. In 1942, FDR's national debt went up by $23 billion, then up $64 billion the next year, another $64 billion the following year, and to close out his presidency in 1945 with another large increase in debt by $57 billion, totally over $200 billion in increased debt in his last term. The numbers drastically dropped once Truman came to office, and within his 18 months in office, he reduced the debt by $11 billion and by the time he left office in 1953, he is the only president of the 1900s to exist the Oval Office with a reduced year-to-year national debt total.


Dwight Eisenhower: 
>
Start of presidency 1953: US National Debt $266 billion
End of presidency 1961: US National Debt $288 billion
Preceding Harry Truman in terms of fiscal resolve was a difficult task, but some could say Eisenhower lived up to the role fairly well. He continued all of the major New Deal programs and focused much of his attention toward nuclear weapons over conventional arms which was more of a fiscal policy than anything else. Eisenhower feared that the costlier conventional forces would unbalance the federal budget and thereby undermine American freedoms. His plans proved successful as he is the last president to reduced the year-to-year national debt (1955: $1.6 billion reduced, 1956: $2.2 billion reduced).


US debt crisis: Boehner's vote blunder edges US closer to the brink

Republican disarray and Democrat gloating is not a recipe for solving the US debt crisis and heading off financial turmoil


US debt crisis: Republican House Speaker John Boehner failed to pass his plan to increase the debt ceiling. Photograph: Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images
The failure of the Republican leadership to even hold a vote on its own debt ceiling proposal edges the US government closer to running out of credit. Get ready for a rocky ride in the financial markets on Friday.
Quite what was going through the minds of the hardcore Republican holdouts on Thursday night is hard to fathom. Partly, one imagines, they could see that the plan proposed by their leader, House Speaker John Boehner, would get shot down in the Senate – as the Democrats there were threatening to do – and so were unwilling to blot their conservative credentials by backing a futile compromise.

This is not the first time that Boehner has proved himself to be an inept parliamentarian. But this time Boehner was out-played by the tea party, the Club for Growth and even Sarah Palin, all pushing for the conservative rump to oppose his plan on the grounds that it didn't go far enough in throttling the government.
Palin even put out a chilling message on Facebook – that's modern politics for you – before the planned vote on Thursday, hinting at primary challenges from the right against those Republicans voting for the Boehner bill.
Some of the Republican nay-sayers may even believe the – how can one put this politely? – nonsense about a default being a way of curbing the growth of government. Well it is, assuming you also think that one way to lose weight is by cutting off your head.
What happens next? The House Republican leadership will probably try and retool their plan to win the last few crucial votes on Friday, a modest enough aim, although it eluded them on Thursday night.
Democrats were crowing at Boehner's failure to win over his conservative hardcore. But they should beware of premature celebration: the reaction of the financial markets on Friday alone may make them wish Boehner's plan had passed.
The potential default deadline of 2 August – next Tuesday – looms closer, and another day lost in arm-twisting and procedural wrangling does nothing to sooth the markets. But more importantly, although the House Democrats maintained an admirable unity they might have been better advised to at least offer to support the Republican debt ceiling bill.
Instead, the Democrats wanted to enjoy the Republican discomfort from the sidelines. Frankly the discomfort for Republicans would have been far worse if the House Democrats had backed Boehner.
I imagine many Democrats will disagree with me here. But I'd say the severity of the threats to the US economy means the Democratic party should be willing to avoid even a technical default. That's one way of showing a stark contrast with the selfish extremists of the tea party movement.
By the same token, the White House could also have backed the Boehner plan in the House – on the grounds that something is better than nothing – rather than posturing over vetoes. The smart move would have been to get something through the House and then retool it in the Senate. That seems a forlorn hope now.
Tactically, the Democrats may have won tonight (or more accurately: the Republicans lost). But strategically, nothing has been passed, the debt ceiling has not been raised, and a deal is no closer. A weak and humiliated Speaker of the House is not going to be a helpful partner in searching for an answer. Remember: many Republican votes are needed to pass any debt ceiling increase through the House.
The severity of the market reaction on Friday may bring everyone in Congress and Pennsylvania Avenue to their senses. Because nothing else looks like it is going to.


US debt ceiling deal talks – as it happened

Obama and Republicans remained locked in talks over a deal to raise the US debt ceiling - with no end yet in sight

President Obama reaching out for a debt ceiling deal in talks with Republicans. Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters
11am: Welcome to live coverage of the non-stop negotiations over the US debt ceiling going on in Washington DC. So far there's a lot of hot air – and that's not just the incredibly humid twmperatures above 40C that the city is experiencing.
But there are signs of a deal emerging. The New York Times reportstoday:
Congressional and administration officials said that the two men, who had abandoned earlier talks toward a deal when leaks provoked Republicans' protests, were closing in on a package calling for as much as $3 trillion in savings from substantial spending cuts and future revenue produced by a tax code overhaul.
But can they sell it to their respective parties? It's not looking good so far.
Just now the Senate rejected by 51-46 a House Republican-backed bill to cut spending and introduce a balanced-budget amendment.
Coming up, President Obama is about to speak to a town hall meeting in College Park, Maryland, where he is expected to address the debt ceiling talks and the state of the economy.
11.10am: Obama now speaking at College Park – home of the University of Maryland and indeed a very large Ikea – and goes straight into discussing the debt ceiling and the state of the US economy:
This is actually a debate about you and the people of America and the challenges we face.
He says that his "number one concern" is the state of the economy. "It's the first thing I think about when I get up in the morning ands the last thing I think about at night."
11.15am: Before describing the debt ceiling debate as "a crisis manufactured in Washington," Obama says that both parties are to blame for the size of the federal budget deficit:
But both parties have a responsibility to solve it. If we don't solve it every American will suffer.
11.21am: Obama says he's willing to sign up to a deal that makes heavy cuts in domestic and military spending – and reels off some statistics (the lowest level of domestic spending since the Eisenhower administration, and so on) to prove it. But he says that politicians in both parties aren't happy.
Obama is off on a well-polished riff about the problems of politics in Washington, tapping into the desire for a deal that recent opinion polls reveal. "Americans voted for a divided government. They didn't vote for a dysfunctional government," is one of his lines that is a ong-time favourite of his speech-writers.
11.26am: Obama now taking questions from the audience – and one from a man suggesting using the 14th amendment (allowing presidential powers) and waiting until the next election so that Americans have the chance to vote out "these hooligans in the House".
Obama replies saying that the debt ceiling needs to be raised now to avoid the possibility of a default, so he doesn't have the luxury of letting that happen. "It is not an option for us to default. My challenge then is to get something passed."
On the 14th amendment, Obama says "I've talked to my lawyers" and they say invoking the 14th amendment here is not an option.
That could change, of course. "There are going to be a certain set of equities that we are not going to be prepared to sacrifice," says Obama, leaving a slight hint that there are circumstances in which he does hit the nuclear option of the 14th.
11.35am: Next questioner begins by asking Obama, "Obviously you've had a successful presidency..." Obama cuts in: "That's not obvious to everyone."
The question is, what mistakes have you made? Obama replies that he would have been more aggressive on the economy in the first year:
I could have told the American people more clearly how tough this was going to be, how tough and long lasting this recession was going to be.
But the president has to project confidence and optimism, he says, and the banking sector was in serious trouble – suggesting that he had to talk it up.
Over the first two years I was so foccused on policy, getting the policy right, that I forgot part of my job was explaining to the American people why that policy was a good thing.
11.41am: The debt ceiling seems to not be at the front of the minds of the people asking questions at the town hall.
Next question: "Hi, my name is Steve, I'm a doctoral student here." Obama responds: "What are you studying?" "Political rhetoric," says Steve. "Uh-oh," says Obama, "How am I doing?"
Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner (right) with Republican House majority leader Eric Cantor at a press conference on debt ceiling talks. Photograph: Mark Wilson/Getty Images
11.52am: Leaving Obama's town hall, is there any chance of a deal on the table today? Not according to Republican leader and Speaker of the House John Boehner, who has held a press conference just now:
There was no agreement, publicly, privately, never an agreement, and frankly not close to an agreement. So I suggest that it's going to be a hot weekend here in Washington DC.
That's a "no" then. He's right about the heat though: a forecast high of 105F (40C) tomorrow.
Boehner did try and show his willingness to keep talking: "As a responsible leader, I think it is my job to keep lines of communications open."
12.09pm: Have things ground to a halt? In the Senate, the majority leader Harry Reid has canceled plans for a weekend Senate session, which leaves the ball in the Obama-Boehner court.
Reid himself is putting the pressure on the House Republicans, saying that the talks between Obama and the Republicans are focused on taxes and that the House would have to act before the Senate, since tax measures must originate in the House.
12.18pm: According to the Associated Press, there are a lot of subjects that the two sides remain stuck on:
Democratic officials familiar with the discussions said both sides remained apart on key components of the deal, including the amount of revenue that a revamped tax code could yield, the nature of the changes to Medicare and Medicaid, and the process that would guarantee that both taxes and benefit programs would in fact be overhauled.
12.31pm: The always smart Jonathan Chait at the New Republic isgloomy over the possibility of a deal combining tax increases and budget cuts:
Anti-tax theology is the core of the modern Republican Party. If the GOP leadership cuts a deal that includes higher taxes, that deal will either exert an unbearable price in return or provoke a conservative revolt that kills it, or possibly both.
Yes but an all-cuts deal would go down like a cup of cold sick with Democrats. "An all-cuts deal sounds bad, but it contains some real advantages," muses Chait. Mmm.
12.58pm: Even if there is a deal, can the Republicans pass anything containing tax increases against the opposition of their fire-breathing colleagues? AP does the math, or the maths even, for House Speaker John Boehner:
A bill to extend the government's authority to borrow money, perhaps loaded with trillions in spending cuts, will need 217 votes to clear the House, which has two vacancies. Boehner has 240 Republicans.
Getting to 217, though, won't be simple. An unknown number of Republicans — estimated by lawmakers and lobbyists to be at least 40 and potentially dozens more — are considered certain to oppose any deal because they want more deficit reduction than seems politically achievable. Boehner is likely to need support from scores of Democrats, but he will need to supply the bulk of votes himself.
Defectors are considered likeliest to come from among the 87 GOP freshmen and from those who owe their elections to tea party voters. There are 60 Republicans listed as members of the House's tea party caucus, including 14 freshmen.
Yet, eager to avoid primary challenges from conservatives next year, even some veteran Republicans may be reluctant to support a deal.
Let's be clear: everyone assumes that common sense will prevail and that a deal will be done and passed through Congress. But if enough of the swivel-eyed tendency with the GOP are against it, it is still possible that the debt ceiling will not be raised in time.
1.15pm: The Republicans in the House are still pushing their vague "cut, cap and balance" budget legislation, the one that got shot down in the Senate. Democratic House majority leader Nancy Pelosi dismissed it with a nice line today: "Cut and paste, or whatever you call it."
(Hat-tip to Brian Beutler)
1.35pm: The Atlantic's Joshua Green dubs the spending cuts worth $3tn under discussion between the White House and Republicans "the incumbent-protection plan":
A historic debt deal, though it would do practically nothing in the short term to create jobs, would demonstrate that Obama is the post-partisan figure he claims to be – the only man able to bridge the warring factions in Washington, and therefore someone deserving of reelection. To me, that seems a bit like putting shiny new rims on a broken-down car. But it is an accomplishment, it blunts the perception that Obama is a spendthrift, and it gives him something to run on that might distract from the lousy economy.
As for the ongoing charade in DC, it reminds me of nothing but [New York state capital] Albany, where budget stalemates — and walkouts, and threats to shut down the government, and all the rest of it — have been an annual ritual for as long as I can remember. Of course, nobody takes much notice of what happens upstate, and why should they? We all assume that, in the end, the governor, state senators, and assemblymen will reach a deal. Invariably, they do, and life goes on as before.
But that's what everyone said before the federal government shutdown in 1995.
2.09pm: In a magnificent display of chutzpah, blogger Digby of Hullaballoo points to a fund-raising email from Republicans bashing Obama for proposed budget cuts – which Republicans are actually in favour of:
First he says he'll never consider cutting Social Security. Now he says he WILL consider cutting Social Security. And the young will go along with it. Just because he says it's right.
Talk about having lemons and trying to make lemonade. Or as Digby says: "No one should ever underestimate the total shamelessness of the GOP."
2.21pm: Red State's Erick Erickson – an influential Republican voice –fires a shot across the bows of the Republican leadership in Congress:
There is a growing worry that John Boehner and Eric Cantor will come up with a deal with the White House that will require Democrat votes to get through the House of Representatives. This would be a replay of the continuing resolution fiasco that cut little and cost much.
If Republican leaders come up with a debt ceiling deal that requires Democrats to vote for it in order to get to 218, the Republicans who put those leaders in power should boot them out of power. It's that simple.
The Republican leaders have twice now seen their members stand for something. First they stood for Paul Ryan's plan and got roundly attacked. Then they stood for Cut, Cap, and Balance despite withering attacks.
Leadership now needs to stand up with their conservative majority and not fall back on Democrats to pass a bad deal.
This doesn't auger well for the spirit of compromise.
As an aside, Erickson was also the author of the fund-rasing email mentioned previously. Hmm.
2.42pm: A new CNN opinion poll shows Obama showing signs of losing support among liberal voters, with his overall approval rating now at 45%:
Looking at that figure another way, roughly one in four Americans who disapprove of the president say they feel that way because he's not been liberal enough.
Obama's approval rating among liberals has dropped to 71%, the lowest point in his presidency. And the number of Democrats who want the party to renominate Obama next year, now at 77%, is relatively robust by historical standards but is also down a bit since June.
CNN also notes: "Some congressional Democrats appeared to be on the verge of open revolt against their own president Thursday night after hearing some of the details in the $3 trillion plan - a package many of them contend does not do nearly enough to ensure wealthier Americans share in the burden of stemming the tide of Washington's red ink."
3.12pm: Even Kent Conrad, a Democratic member of a group of senators known as the Gang of Six who proposed a plan to cut the deficit by about $4tn over 10 years, isn't sure what's happening:
I don't think anybody can be certain at this moment what the outcome will be.
3.33pm: Treasury secretary Tim Geithner met today with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and New York Fed president William Dudley "to discuss the implications for the U.S. economy if Congress fails to act."
A joint statement after the meeting said that the trio "remain confident" that Congress would act in time. Well, that's good.
3.55pm: Since Congress has packed up and gone home for the weekend, this seems a good time to end this blog – on a day when high hopes were replaced with another false dawn in the hunt for a debt ceiling deal.
Something may come up over the weekend, since I imagine the Republicans and the White House will keep talking. But everything will have to wait on the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives – and we probably won't know that until Monday.
In the meantime, 2 August gets closer and closer.


22 July 2011 4:50PM
Truman, Harry S. 1945-1953 
atomic bombing of Japan (1945) 
Cold War with Soviet Union 
Korean War (1950-1953)

Before George W. Bush America seemed to be the role model for the Modern world.
Just look at them now!

Johnson, 1963-1969 escalated involvement in Vietnam War (1954-1975)
Nixon 1969-1974 "War on Drugs"
Reagan 1981-1989 military involvements in Grenada, Central America, Lebanon, Libya
Bush, 1989-1993 Persian Gulf War I with Iraq (1990)

Clinton, 1993-2001 Persian Gulf War II with Iraq
That is just in my lifetime.

Note: The Presidential of US make more agreed Debts by Congress in so giants sum… are caused the Program for war issues or such long term war.
Now the issues of “Holocaust” and “War upon Terror”…. such as disclosed in so many media are liars… and absurd issues due to have no any strong proven… and its does not make common sense and it is such like the manipulation issues of internal jobs made by the so Powerful Conspirators hands of the International Crime Colonialist Regimes and Organization over the world whom so Racist, Cruel and breach the Humanity and Justice.  The professional and scientist have so many fact documentation as the Crime issues of both and just for killing and invading and occupying the Moslem countries and its resources. Its so criminal game and such neo colonialist model.
This International Crime Colonialist Regime…and its conspirators hands are so strong power and have so strong control in any line of the power in political, financial, press and media, and infiltrating in so whole net working in the world political body and institutions.
My view that the Obamas vs Congress can be in two or three possibilities matters:
In regard with the comments issued of so many American people.. and the real occurred in the history along the years… especially since 1945 up to the presents… the world have never sleep from the conflicts and war… both internal and other did by invasion of  the Foreign countries whom so Powerful states upon the so weak countries.. such in Indonesia in around October-November 1945..  that is recorded  Semarang – Palagan - Ambarawa war  between The Alliances troops of British-Europe- UN against the Peoples Defense Militia of Indonesia… and the Alliances was defeated by the Indonesia militia. And also in same time Surabaya war.. in November 1945 between the same regime of the Alliance troops with the most strongest troops of the so famous Brigade 49 and Division 5 and Division 23 of the Alliance troops against  the   Peoples Defense Militia of Indonesia in Surabaya city. As it is fact in history.. that  3 Generals of the Alliance troops died i.e.  Brigadir Jenderal Aulbertin Walter Sothern Mallaby and Brigadir Jendral Robert Guy Loder-Symonds  and  Mayor Jenderal Mansergh 
Note: Initially British troops were 6,000-strong lightly-armed Indian soldiers from 49th Infantry Brigade of the 23rd Indian Division. When the battle reached its peak, British sent additional troops which consisted of 24,000 fully-armed soldiers from the 5th Indian Division, 24 Sherman tanks, 24 armed aircraft, 2 cruisers and 3 destroyers.[1]
Surat kabar Times di London mengabarkan bahwa kekuatan Inggris terdiri dari 25 ponders, 37 howitser, HMS Sussex dibantu 4 kapal perang destroyer, 12 kapal terbang jenis Mosquito, 15.000 personel dari divisi 5 dan 6000 personel dari brigade 49 The Fighting Cock.
[Times newspaper in London informed that The British Combatants troops were 25 ponders, 37 howitzers, HMS Sussex, supported by 4 warships Destroyers, 12 Fighter plane Mosquito, 15,000 troops of Division 5 and 6000 troops of Brigade 49 The Fighting Cocks]

David Welch menggambarkan pertempuran tersebut dalam bukunya, Birth of Indonesia (hal. 66),

Based on the isuues of Holocaust and War upon Terror that can be discloed.
Some review and the realtionship Surabaya war and Israel and Alliance invade and occupied Palestian land and state due to the Super Power Policy is based on the concept of International Crime Colonialist Regime that force the state Racist and Islamophia [anti moslem syariah] and anti Muhammad.
1] That so, Mr. Obama in this case may be wanna stop the playing of these hands of the International Crime Colonialist Regime and the Peels that any problem of internal affairs in US Government must be responsible and handled by the people of US himself…  and by rational and fairly playing political game.
I think Mr Obama so realize that whole Presidential of USA along so decades since  1920s have been kept strongest hands of this so Powerful Regimes.  And up to now… USA and the administration and whole body of Congress and Senate have also under control this Regimes hands….
Therefore why the issues of Mr Obama ideas have no positive support from the Senators and House Representatives… due to offense to The Regime interest and agenda…. which is to continue making the world under their war issues and conflicts and making the world is under the siege. As most understand matter that the situation of people under conflicts and war condition outside of USA states and the alliances countries, and so the Regimes can do anything as their lust and  greediness  and have no body control. And the mainstream issues as media and politician taking advantages that so will be more interesting and more supporting due to have the market in the Regimes that control the financial and economic lines.   That why it is so market values…. i.e war business….
I’m sure that most of the politicians in US both Senators and House of Representative Members and the State Administration are so realize and understand in what the matter happened … and why they did such a like…
2] That so, Mr Obama in this case could follow the previous President and administration that take more Debt, but developing economic domestic and not for so spreading war. But this ideas have no so big profits for the Regimes business, due to domestic market as just most likely dominated by middle people class that not so luxury and mostly for consumable and households goods and some for high technology for export. These industries might be more increasing employment but not high profitable. And taxes as trickles down.. might be so peanuts. Or most possible are under target.
So the issues is not so interesting not worthy for the politicians that it have no political values for campaigning.
So this idea is not market values…due to internal affairs political issue is not worthy.
3] May be Mr Obama wanna take both issues… that war business and also the people of USA take advantage too. And so the budget must be so fantastic… giant Debt is needed and then whole people will be happy, the Regimes business will get their profit and the people of USA will also fulfill their expectation.
 However, its could be unworthy for the Republic Party … due to Mr Obama will be so strong and the Candidates for running Presidential Campaign in the Second Election will be not so valuable and un interesting matter.
So now the various issues and  argues arise in any opportunity for selling the  issues and take advantage the each respectively interest and aim.
Let see the war propaganda… as the only playing political game such the art of so many motivations and schemes.
The most unchangeable matter… that might be that The International Crime Colonialist Regime which is so supported by alliance of the politicians neo-liberalist and the body of financial and economic under the Regime control are still keep controlling the world and they make anything as they wants including war business – conflicts - and dehumanization and injustice.
So, please be waked up whole the Common sense peoples, The Professionals, The Humanity peoples that stop occupying Palestine by the Israel Zionist. Let Israel go out and leave whole Palestinians land and country as it is condition before Declaration of Balfour –The British Prime Minister. Let think it as commonsense.. that event it issue is may be something right or not right issue in real that in fact the Holocaust issue is not did by Palestinians or other people in Arab Region or somebody else in outside Europe. So it is unfairly that Israel take advantages by supported US-and Alliances and then invade and plunder the land and State of Palestinians. How come… the justice reason for such doing force occupation in to the land Palestinians… that in anything reasons is not fair and it is obviously breach the international law and justice and human rights.
Looks to the history… that have been happened to Alliance did the criminal war in Indonesia for aiming the Netherlands interest. But it is not successful due to the Indonesian militia defeated the Alliance forces whom did war in Surabaya and Ambarawa  region. Please see The Surabaya War 1945 and study again.