Minggu, 14 September 2014

Mine Unrest Don't Offset Oversupply...>>> Rally in Uranium Prices Is Unlikely to Last...??? >> ...Nuswantara ini. Dan... Indonesia seperti layaknya sepotong kue yang yang diperebutkan. Dahulu kita dirampok dengan orang-orang berwajah bengis dengan bedil dan meriamnya, namun sekarang dengan orang-orang berwajah ramah dengan mass media nya. Namun demikian sebagaimana “brutal” nya kekayaan alam kita dikeruk dan lari ke luar negeri... ada kabar baik.... (?) negara kita masih berdiri dan masih punya mall-mall mewah... Sebagai pemilik harta, tentunya kita memiliki pilihan: menyerahkan harta yang diminta atau menolak/mempertahankannya. Tentu itu suatu pilihan yang sulit, karena penolakan itu biasanya diikuti oleh ancaman. Seperti layaknya Dajjal, mereka datang dengan pilihan: air atau api. Namun air hakikatnya api, dan api hakikatnya air. Seolah air itu akan memberikan kesejukan tetapi ternyata berisi ancaman neraka di dalamnya, begitu sebaliknya dengan tawaran api yang pada hakikatnya berisi ganjaran surga dibaliknya. Mengapa air tapi berisi api? Lihat saja tawaran-tawaran yang mereka lakukan: kemerdakaan, kebebasan dan tatanan ekonomi, sosial dan budaya yang seolah menyejukkan, tapi membuat kita makin lama menjauh dari fitrah kita untuk selalu ingat akan Tuhannya dan akhirat, tempat kita berpulang nanti. Alih-alih daripada pilihan lain (penolakan) yang dapat menjadi musibah ancaman.... keamanan. Kok mirip preman pasar ya...? Lalu apa saja yang mereka ambil selain SDA? Ternyata diam-diam mereka juga mengambil pola hidup Islami yang penuh keseimbangan dan keadilan. Satu contoh diantaranya, lihat saja kasus-kasus korupsi milayaran dan trilyunan yang dilakukan oleh sekelompok orang tertentu yang dekat dengan sumbu kekuasaan. Karena korupsi itu dianggap sebagai factor pendorong konsumsi (to consume) lebih dan tentunya berhutang lebih. Lalu apakah kita akan puas hidup dengan remah-remah kue yang ada dan akhirnya kita hidup kelaparan di akhirat nanti dengan memakan buah zaqquum karena cara hidup yang kita lakukan di dunia...? Na’uwdzubillahi min dzalik... Kita jauhkan diri kita dan keluarga kita dari siksa api neraka. ...>>>

Indonesia dan Sepotong Kue

(Oleh: Herdi Yustiadi,)

Jika kita berpikir tentang karunia Allah SWT tentulah akan takjub dan bersyukur. Bayangkan saja seekor cicak yang tidak memiliki sayap, tapi dia bisa mendapatkan rezeki dari Penciptanya dengan mendatangkan seekor nyamuk atau serangga. Yang perlu dilakukan oleh cicak itu padahal hanya merayap....menjemput rezekinya.

Sebagai umat Islam kita juga patut bersyukur bagaimana Allah SWT telah memberikan kekayaan alam yang berlimpah. Di Timur Tengah dengan kekayaan minyaknya, di Asia Tenggara dengan kekayaan alam minyak, gas alam, mineral, flora dan fauna baik di darat maupun lautannya. 

Semua kekayaan alam tersebut ada di Indonesia Raya tercinta yang berpenduduk mayoritas muslim ini.  Lalu apa yang harus kita lakukan?.... ya “merayaplah”.... jemput rezeki itu.  Namun rezeki yang kita miliki itu ternyata sekaligus menjadi ujian (fitnah) bagi kita, karena banyakbangsa-bangsa lain yang mengaku superior datang silih berganti memperebutkan kekayaan

Nuswantara ini. Dan... Indonesia seperti layaknya sepotong kue yang yang diperebutkan. Dahulu kita  dirampok dengan orang-orang berwajah bengis dengan bedil dan meriamnya, namun sekarang dengan orang-orang berwajah ramah dengan mass media nya.

Namun demikian sebagaimana “brutal” nya kekayaan alam kita dikeruk dan lari ke luar negeri... ada kabar baik.... (?) negara kita masih berdiri dan masih punya mall-mall mewah...

Sebagai pemilik harta, tentunya kita memiliki pilihan: menyerahkan harta yang diminta atau menolak/mempertahankannya.  Tentu itu suatu pilihan yang sulit, karena penolakan itu biasanya diikuti oleh ancaman. Seperti layaknya Dajjal, mereka datang dengan pilihan: air atau api.  Namun air hakikatnya api, dan api hakikatnya air. Seolah air itu akan memberikan kesejukan tetapi ternyata berisi ancaman neraka di dalamnya, begitu sebaliknya dengan tawaran api yang pada hakikatnya berisi ganjaran surga dibaliknya.

Mengapa air tapi berisi api? Lihat saja tawaran-tawaran yang mereka lakukan: kemerdakaan, kebebasan dan tatanan ekonomi, sosial dan budaya yang seolah menyejukkan, tapi membuat kita makin lama menjauh dari fitrah kita untuk selalu ingat akan Tuhannya dan akhirat, tempat kita berpulang nanti.  

Alih-alih daripada pilihan lain (penolakan) yang dapat menjadi musibah ancaman.... keamanan. Kok mirip preman pasar ya...? Lalu apa saja yang mereka ambil selain SDA? Ternyata diam-diam mereka juga mengambil pola hidup Islami yang penuh keseimbangan dan keadilan. Satu contoh diantaranya, lihat saja kasus-kasus korupsi milayaran dan trilyunan yang dilakukan oleh sekelompok orang tertentu yang dekat dengan sumbu kekuasaan. Karena korupsi itu dianggap sebagai factor pendorong konsumsi (to consume) lebih dan tentunya berhutang lebih.

Lalu apakah kita akan puas hidup dengan remah-remah kue yang ada dan akhirnya kita hidup kelaparan di akhirat nanti dengan memakan buah zaqquum karena cara hidup yang kita lakukan di dunia...? Na’uwdzubillahi min dzalik... Kita jauhkan diri kita dan keluarga kita dari siksa api neraka.
 

Rally in Uranium Prices Is Unlikely to Last

Gains Fueled by Ukraine Crisis, Mine Unrest Don't Offset Oversupply


Sept. 14, 2014 4:33 p.m. ET
http://online.wsj.com/articles/rally-in-uranium-prices-is-unlikely-to-last-1410726782

SYDNEY—A multiweek rally in uranium prices fanned by the Ukraine conflict and labor unrest at a large mine in Canada looks unlikely to continue for long as the reality of oversupply and lackluster demand sinks in among buyers of the nuclear fuel.

Industry analysts and some uranium producers believe that even as supplies fall, a substantial increase in demand is needed to drive prices up to levels that would make new investments worthwhile, when many operations are running at a loss.

Uranium prices have surged 15% since the start of August, shaking off a multiyear glut-induced slump. A gauge of more than 20 commodities, meanwhile, dropped more than 4%. Uranium now trades at US$32.75 a pound, up from a nine-year low of US$28 in May.

The gain was fueled partly by speculation that Western sanctions against Russia over its conduct in Ukraine could squeeze supplies. Russia produces only 5% of the world's uranium but is a leading provider of enrichment services to many Western utility companies. Prices also surged after production was interrupted by a labor dispute at Cameco Corp.'s CCO.T +2.46% McArthur River operation, the world's largest uranium mine, in Saskatchewan, Canada.

"Let's not get carried away by the little blip that's happened in the past few weeks," Rio Tinto's RIO.AU -0.16% energy chief executive, Harry Kenyon-Slaney, said at a recent event in Sydney. The market had been so weak for so long that the 15% lift in prices was of little help to mining companies, he said.

Demand for uranium ore hasn't recovered since the Fukushima Daiichi disaster. Bloomberg News
 

Demand for the fuel hasn't recovered since the disaster at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant in 2011, which sparked nuclear-plant closures across the country and tarnished uranium's image globally.

Still, some analysts are convinced that the uranium market is strengthening gradually. Macquarie Group Ltd. reckons that an oversupply of almost 12,000 metric tons last year will shrink to 3,200 tons this year.


Reductions in supply may prevent prices sinking back to their recent lows, but a sustained recovery could be a way off, according to Macquarie's Stefan Ljubisavljevic. It is difficult to see anything but a surplus for the next five years unless some unprofitable mines close, he said. The only major facility to have been closed recently was Paladin Energy Ltd. PDN.AU -3.57% 's Kayelekera mine in Malawi.


The biggest producers of the fuel, such as Rio Tinto, aren't betting on a quick recovery but remain upbeat about uranium's longer-term outlook as countries such as China and India bring new reactors online.


Macquarie, which anticipates a 6% drop in output from uranium mines this year, estimates that around half the industry could be unprofitable at current prices.


"The industry is going through some very tough times, but at some point, new production will have to be incentivized to deliver into the power programs, particularly in China," said Rio Tinto's Mr. Kenyon-Slaney.

China has stepped up efforts to introduce cleaner energy and has the world's largest pipeline of nuclear-power plants.


Australia recently struck a deal for its mining companies to sell uranium for use in India.

Japan's nuclear watchdog this month said two reactors at the Sendai plant on the southern island of Kyushu had met stricter guidelines imposed after the Fukushima accident—putting them first in line among the country's 48 idled reactors to be restarted. But antinuclear sentiment after the disaster means it is unclear when the reactors might return to service.


Meanwhile, state governments in resource-rich Australia have been encouraging the growth of the nation's uranium industry. A decadeslong ban on uranium production in Queensland was lifted in July, opening the door to new applications to build mines in the state. The government of New South Wales this month said it would invite six companies to apply for exploration licenses.


Still, there is expected to be little investment in new projects until the market stages a more substantial comeback. Cameco said it would need to see much higher uranium prices before it started construction of its proposed Kintyre uranium mine in Western Australia.


"The nuclear industry is still in the midst of upheaval," said Jonathan Hinze, senior vice president at nuclear-research firm Ux Consulting Co. But he said there was some hope for the industry, given decreased willingness among traders and producers to undercut each other's prices to win customers.


Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/articles/rally-in-uranium-prices-is-unlikely-to-last-1410726782

  • 4 HRs agoslideshow

    Ukrainian Tensions Continue


    A pro-Russian rebel walks by a burnt-out vehicle at the destroyed airport in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, on Sunday. A Russian convoy carrying what Moscow said was humanitarian aid entered Ukrainian territory without Kiev's permission Saturday and traveled to the rebel stronghold of Luhansk, where weeks of fighting have left residents without water and electricity.
    Marko Djurica/Reuters

    Cameco Says Strike Notice Prompts Shutdown

    Begins Shutting Down Flagship McArthur River Uranium Mine in Saskatchewan

    Updated Aug. 27, 2014 1:09 p.m. ET
    Cameco Corp. CCO.T +2.46% Wednesday said it began shutting down operations at its flagship uranium mine in Saskatchewan after getting a strike notice from the union representing workers at the operation.

    Cameco said it issued a 72-hour lockout notice covering the McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill in response to the union's move. The lockout would be effective just after midnight local time Friday.

    The Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based company had previously said both parties would be in a legal strike/lockout position as of Aug. 30. 

    Representatives of the union, United Steelworkers Local 8914, didn't respond to a request for comment. 

    Analysts said a closure could boost uranium prices. McArthur River is the world's largest uranium mine and accounts for about 10% of annual uranium supply globally.
    "Given the mine's importance to Cameco and to global uranium supply in general, we do not expect the work stoppage to last more than several weeks (if that), and we note that the spot market, prior to the shutdown, was in oversupply anyway," Cormark Securities Inc. said in a note.

    Uranium spot prices were recently around $31 a pound, according to Cameco's website.
    Cameco said the work stoppage involves about 535 unionized employees at both McArthur River and Key Lake. According to the company's website, the operations together employ about 900 Cameco staff and almost 750 long-term contract workers.

    The company said it will continue to meet with the union during the 72-hour notice period.
    The unionized workers have been without a collective agreement since the end of 2013. Contract talks started in November. 

    Cameco owns 70% of McArthur River, with Areva S.A. AREVA.FR +0.89% owning the other 30%. The two also share ownership of the Key Lake mill operation.

    Cameco said it does not expect any labor disruption to affect its 2014 uranium deliveries to customers, given its ability to draw on other supply sources including inventories. 

    Analysts estimated the company has inventories representing about six months' worth of sales.

    From 2000 to 2013, the McArthur River operations produced a total of 250.6 million pounds of uranium. Cameco's share of 2013 output was 14.1 million pounds.
    Write to Judy McKinnon at judy.mckinnon@wsj.com

    Analysis

    West's Sanctions Against Russia Remain Relatively Porous

    U.S., Europe Step Up Pressure Over Ukraine, but Restrictions Still Partial Compared to Other Embargoes

    July 30, 2014 1:41 p.m. ET
    Associated Press
    The U.S. and Europe are stepping up their sanctions against Russia, but the restrictions remain partial and porous compared with other economic embargoes recently imposed by the West.

    Bans on buying new bonds of Russian state-owned banks, or on selling some engineering technology to Russia's oil industry, are expected to hurt parts of Russia's economy. But the measures don't touch Russia's main business with the West: the sale of natural gas and oil to Europe. 

    That makes the sanctions regime fundamentally different from the sweeping Western embargo that has blocked Iran from selling any oil or gas to its traditional customers in the European Union. 

    "The EU's core business with Russia has been left untouched," said Stefan Lehne, a scholar at Carnegie Europe, a nonpartisan Brussels think tank. 

    Mr. Lehne said the EU is likely to adopt further sanctions against Russia, including tighter financial-sector restrictions, but that energy supplies won't be touched. "If you really restrict Russian energy exports, then you hurt the EU as much as Russia." 


    As the U.S. and the European Union step up economic sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, WSJ's The Foreign Bureau takes a look at the Russian oligarchs who are on the list, some of those who aren't, and why. 

    EU leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel have said the sanctions can be scaled back if Moscow becomes more cooperative in the Ukraine conflict—or scaled up if it continues to support pro-Russia rebels there. 

    But few in Europe can imagine a boycott of Russian gas, which flowed West continuously even at the height of Cold War enmity. Many countries across the Continent have no way of replacing Russian gas quickly or affordably.

    A sanctions regime that targets secondary economic ties such as banking, specialized engineering and weapons highlights the limits of the EU's room for maneuver. 

    "I've always said that energy deliveries, such as oil, gas, coal and uranium, from Russian into European markets…shouldn't be put on a sanctions list," EU energy chief Günther Oettinger said in Brussels last week. 

    Europe's limited energy sanctions so far relate to technology that Russia needs in the longer term to exploit oil fields in inhospitable places such as the Arctic Circle. 

    But those restrictions will only exact a significant economic price if they are left in place for years, said Jonathan Eyal, international director of the Royal United Services Institute, a London security think tank. 

    Russian President Vladimir Putin "can assume that the risk for him is small: He can turn around and say 'Let's talk' when it suits him and then the sanctions will be lifted," Mr. Eyal said.

    Restrictions on Russian banks' access to EU financial markets is expected to be the main source of near-term economic pain for Russia. Those sanctions too are partial: Russian banks can still borrow through syndicated loans, short-term debt and EU-based subsidiaries. EU officials say they will prevent those subsidiaries from borrowing a lot and wiring the money to their parent banks. 

    The threat that the financial sanctions could be stepped up—coupled with a de facto chill on Russia's financial dealings abroad as banks and investors avoid the country—are Europe's best hope of influencing the Kremlin's cost-benefit calculus in Ukraine. 

    EU officials are presenting their new-look sanctions as an intelligent package designed to maximize EU influence while minimizing economic harm to Europe's patchy economic recovery.
    Yet in reality the EU "stumbled over" its current policy after spending months "in denial about the significance of what Putin has done in Ukraine," Mr. Eyal said.
    "That doesn't mean it's bound to fail: It's possible to stumble over something that actually works," Mr. Eyal said. 

    Moscow's response so far isn't encouraging, however: "There is no evidence that Putin has ever been impressed by what the West is doing or has considered a retreat." 

    Mr. Putin didn't publicly respond to the EU and U.S. moves Wednesday. Russia's Foreign Ministry denounced the sanctions as "crazy and irresponsible" and warned that the U.S. and Europe would suffer as well. 

    Despite doubts about the ability of the new measures to change the Kremlin's mind, experience shows international sanctions tend to escalate as the affected country finds ways to evade them. That leads to efforts to plug loopholes and tighten them. And in this particular conflict, political and military events are intensifying rather than defusing the underlying conflict. 

    "The Ukrainian military is showing greater capability, so Russia has to step back or double down" in supporting the rebels, said Robert Kahn, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. "So far, the signs are it's likely to double down." 

    Sanctions can be effective when accompanied by a workable political strategy to resolve a conflict through negotiations, but sometimes the EU adopts sanctions "out of a sense that something must be done," said Mr. Lehne at Carnegie Europe. 

    "It's possible that this will be one of the effective cases, but it's not guaranteed," he said.
    Write to Marcus Walker at marcus.walker@wsj.com and Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
     

    September 22, 2014

    European nations are increasing electricity generation using no-carbon sources

    http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18071

    map of low carbon net electricity generation in Europe, as explained in the article text
    Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics
     

    Penetration rates of no-carbon generation have increased from 50% to 56% in recent years in Europe, as European Union countries work toward renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions targets. Increasing levels of renewable generation, along with nuclear generation, mean that many European countries generate a large share of their electricity from no-carbon sources.

    No-carbon sources generate power while releasing virtually no carbon dioxide emissions, and include geothermal, hydroelectric, nuclear, solar (both utility scale and distributed solar), tidal, and wind generation. Although biomass power plants emit carbon dioxide during operation, the full life cycle of biomass fuels is often considered to be carbon neutral for the purposes of satisfying these countries' goals. France, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland each generated more than 90% of their net electricity from no-carbon sources in 2012, and eight other countries had no-carbon electricity accounting for at least 50% of their generation. 

    The share of no-carbon generation in European countries is expected to continue to increase, as the European Union's 2020 Climate and Energy Package targets both a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in the share of energy consumption generated from renewable sources. There has already been a substantial increase in no-carbon generation since 2002, as countries have added renewables to their generation mix (see graph). Eighteen countries generate at least one-third of their generation from no carbon sources, and 13 generate at least half, up from 13 and 10, respectively, in 2002. Increased generation from solar, wind, and biomass has made up most of the change. For example, while Germany's overall no-carbon generation share rose only modestly between 2002 and 2012, from 38% to 41%, there has been a big shift within the no-carbon portfolio, with the nuclear generation share falling by 12 percentage points over this period. Germany's share of solar, wind, and biomass generation increased by 15 percentage points over the same period. 

    Like the United States, which generated 32% of its electricity from no-carbon sources in 2012, countries in Europe generate most of their no-carbon electricity from nuclear and hydroelectric sources, along with a smaller portfolio of other renewables. There are some exceptions, however; along with hydroelectric power, almost 30% of Iceland's total net electricity generation came from geothermal sources in 2012, while Denmark generated more than 50% of its electricity from wind and biomass.
    Graph of no-carbon electricity generation share in Europe and the United States (2012), as described in the article text

     
    Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics

    Principal contributors: Brian Murphy, Alex Abramowitz
    Tags: emissions, Europe, nuclear, renewable

    Recent Data

    U.S. Renewables consumption
    quadrillion Btu
      2012 2013 2014 E 2015 P
    Hydroelectric power 2.629 2.561 2.454 2.565
    Geothermal 0.212 0.221 0.221 0.225
    Solar 0.227 0.307 0.417 0.524
    Wind 1.339 1.595 1.713 1.807
    Wood biomass 2.010 2.138 2.165 2.158
    Ethanol 1.092 1.120 1.129 1.128
    Biodiesel 0.117 0.203 0.188 0.196
    Waste biomass 0.467 0.476 0.480 0.499
    Total 8.093 8.620 8.761 9.101
    Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook  Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
    See more data ›

    Updated Data Series

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