Middle East
As Syria Crumbles, Only Iran Is a Sure Winner
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-23/as-syria-crumbles-only-iran-is-a-sure-winner
A Q&A with Andrew Tabler, who spent years living under the Assad regime.
by
14
Photographer: Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images
Six years. Half a million dead. Many millions displaced. Untold thousands tortured and killed.
The
Syrian civil war is the worst humanitarian disaster of our young
century, and would have been high on the list of the last one. But
unlike the great world wars of the past, this relatively local conflict
seems to have no imaginable solution, diplomatic or military. Even with
the primary Western concern -- the destruction of the Islamic State
-- within sight, we have to acknowledge that the aftermath may be even
worse for Syria, the Middle East and the rest of the globe. The only
certainty: much more destruction, suffering and death.
Sorry for glooming up your weekend.
In great conflagrations, however, the future can often be
perceived in the past. Syria – like Iraq, Jordan and the Arab Gulf
states -- was always a fake construct, the result of a passel of British
and French mapmakers anticipating the collapse of the Ottoman Empire,
aka the Sick Man of Europe. Much of the problem, actually, comes from
that pejorative -- the Middle East is not Europe, although it has some
echoes of the Europe of the 30 Years' War. Faith, ambition, the struggle
for nationhood -- it is a combustible mix, and it’s the common man and
woman who inevitably pay the price.
Still, even insuperable
problems need figuring out, so this week I talked to somebody who is
particularly suited to the subject. Andrew Tabler is the Martin J. Gross
fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Peace, and has a sterling resume
and publishing history as a top authority on the region. More to the
point here, he spent the better part of seven years living in Syria
under the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his even more ruthless father,
Hafez. Andrew and I served on a panel this week at the Aspen Institute’s
Security Forum (shameless plug: video available here) and then had a chat after. Here is a lightly edited account of the conversation.
Tobin Harshaw:
OK, let’s start at the beginning. I don’t mean President Barack Obama’s
abandonment of his “red line” on chemical weapons, or the Arab Spring,
or when Bashar al-Assad took over from his father. I’m talking about the
Sykes-Picot agreement, the rather arbitrary division of the Middle East
by Britain and France a century ago. What can inglorious history tell
us about today?
Andrew Tabler: Empires have a lot of
problems -- they tax you, haul your young people of to wars you don’t
want to fight, etc. But the Ottomans at least gave the locals a lot of
autonomy. It worked until the empire was headed to collapse. For
example, you had areas where a village of Shiite Muslims could be a mile
away from a Christian village, but they had distinct identities and
little in common. It’s very hard to take that literal mosaic of sects
and cultures and turn it into a nation-state.
TH: How do these fake borders bedevil us today?
AT: Syria never made sense even before World
War I, never added up. On reason was this mosaic -- there was no Syrian
identity. That made one of the most unstable mandates of the colonial
age, and after World War II it was arguably the most unstable country in
the world. There were seven or eight coups, it ceased to exist for
three years when it joined with Gamel Abdel Nasser’s Egypt to form the
United Arab Republic. Syria was always unstable, and so what happened
was when Hafez al-Assad took power in 1970 he used the national
emergency of domestic tumult and declared emergency law that allowed his
dictatorship. To justify it, he made the opposition to Israel the
centerpiece. This idea that they were fighting Israel was used to prop
up one of the most tyrannical systems in the world. That caused them to
be rigid and unable to react to reforms that could have enabled them to
avoid the tumult of 2011.
TH: They aren’t the only ones to use Israel as an excuse for repressive rule.
AT:
Yes, the Palestinian question, as it is called, has not been solved.
Nasser liked to say of it, “No voice louder than the cry of battle.”
TH: What does that mean?
AT:
It means more in Arabic, because the word for “voice” and “vote” are
derived from the same root. So it means we are in a state of war and we
will come back to these other decisions of governance later, but for now
we are fighting and that justifies a state of emergency.
TH: So, how does Bashar al-Assad differ from his father?
AT:
Hafez was a brutal man, and hard to deal with. But he built his regime
and controlled it and had a plan. Bashar has been all over the place. He
promises a lot but doesn’t deliver. The de-escalation agreement reached between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the southwestern corner of the country is a test case.
TH: In what way?
AT: For
the U.S., it’s driven by a need to protect people on our side of the
civil war and to keep Iranian forces out of southwest Syria. It is also a
potential model for peace in the rest of the country. Now, in the
middle of this, we defund the program to train rebel forces
in Jordan and Turkey. Will we not allow rebels to defend themselves? It
seems to be about limiting offensive actions by our proxies against the
regime, because now those fighters will not be effective.
TH: Is the de-escalation zone a model for how we pacify the whole or do we want some sort of a grand bargain?
AT:
It’s a formula for dealing with the fact that neither the regime nor
the opposition has forces to take all Syrian territory. It’s a test. I’m
skeptical because the Russians are heavily invested in the regime. It’s
a Gordian knot.
TH: One assumes that cutting
support for the rebels is of a piece with negotiating with Russia, which
wants Assad to keep control of at least a large part of post-war Syria.
What is Putin’s endgame?
AT: The Russians have
multiple opinions on Syria. If you talk to their foreign affairs
ministry, you hear talk of reasonable negotiations to push for
diplomatic solution through the United Nations Security Council. If you
talk with the defense ministry, you get a much different and more
bellicose answer. And these two centers meet at the Kremlin. I think the
Russians know they ultimately cannot shoot their way out of Syria
completely. They want a deal, but the deal they want isn’t just about
Syria. For them, it’s related to U.S. sanctions and their annexation of
Crimea specifically. They like to horse trade, and we do not.
TH: Do you think Putin would cut Assad loose in this horse trading?
AT: Maybe,
but the question is whether the U.S. would pay the price of allowing
Putin his land grabs in Ukraine in exchange for what we want in Syria.
TH:
So, the Islamic State is on its last legs in its self-declared capital
of Raqqa in Syria. But even with its “caliphate” destroyed it will live
on. And we have a plethora of rebel groups as well as Iran-backed
Hezbollah in the mix. What happens next?
AT: If
things continue to go as they are, with the Iran-backed Assad regime
filling up the vacuum in Syria and the same forces doing that in Iraq,
can you imagine what that will look like in a year? It will be a
dramatically transformed space.
TH: With Iran the big winner?
AT:
The Shiite Crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean we have been
talking about and fearing for decades is going to be formed in front of
us. I cannot see Syria’s neighbors and our allies taking that lying
down. The question is, what will they do?
TH: Is there anything they can do?
AT: The easy thing is to open their
borders and allow arms to go to the insurgency, because there is always
an insurgency in the Euphrates Valley. We need to get them to be better
at the proxy game -- meaning they need to look at what the Iranians are
doing and learn from it. They need to create sub-state actors, not
non-state actors, which is how the Iranians have been able to move the
needle substantially.
TH: Do we have those proxy forces available?
AT:
No, it one the great challenges for the Sunni nations. In these broken
states, the only way to assure your interests is through forces you can
control and turn on and off. They don’t have any. It’s a major
constraint on our policy so far.
Sunniism today reminds me of a
bit of the Catholic Church before the Jesuits -- you need to have a
response to a movement that is challenging your followers. One way to
view it is through European history, the 30 Years War. But that was a
long time ago for us; in the Middle East it’s still happening.
TH:
So you think that although the Russians have kept Assad in business,
the Iranians are the one who are going to reap the benefit?
AT: Correct. Unless somehow this can be reversed. I’m skeptical.
TH: Are the Russians and Iranians natural allies at this point?
AT:
Yes, in Syria and the entire Middle East. What this allows the Iranians
to do is cut off Turkey and the Arabs to take on Israel. For the
Russians it’s about containing Turkey as well, but also about projecting
their power in the region. They don’t have good relations with the
Arabs.
But in the end, a lot of this is about messing up U.S. policies in the Middle East.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Secret Details of Trump-Putin
Syria Cease-fire
Focus on Iranian Proxies
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/11/exclusive-trump-putin-ceasefire-agreement-focuses-on-iranian-backed-fighters-middle-east/
A confidential U.S.-Russian cease-fire agreement for southwestern
Syria that went into effect Sunday calls for barring Iranian-backed
foreign fighters from a strategic stretch of Syrian territory near the
borders of Israel and Jordan, according to three diplomatic sources.
President Donald Trump hailed it as an important agreement that would
serve to save lives. But few details of the accord have been made
public.
Trending Articles
U.S. Defense Department officials — who would have
responsibility for monitoring the agreement — appeared to be in the dark
about the pact’s fine print.
The pact is aimed at addressing demands by Israel and Jordan — the
latter is a party to the agreement — that Iranian forces and their
proxies, including Hezbollah, not be permitted near the Israeli-occupied
Golan Heights, which separates Syria from Israel, or along the
Jordanian border.
But former U.S. diplomats and observers question whether the
agreement is truly enforceable, expressing doubts that Russia could act
as a reliable guarantor for a cease-fire involving the Syrian regime,
Iran, and its proxies.
“The question is, ‘Who is going to enforce that?’ Is Russia going to
take on the responsibility for telling Iran what to do?” said Gerald
Feierstein, a veteran U.S. diplomat who retired last year, noting that a
peace deal without Iranian buy-in is untenable. “Iranians are much
closer to Assad’s position on the way forward in Syria than the Russians
are.”
And they have far more leverage. “It’s the Iranians and their proxies
who are doing a bulk of the fighting inside Syria,” he told Foreign Policy.
With Iran in the driver’s seat, seasoned U.S. diplomats expressed
doubts that the Kremlin could deliver on its promises. “The key to the
survival of the Assad regime is Iran, not Russia,” said Fred Hof, a
former State Department special advisor for transition in Syria. “Are
the Russians trying to rush this [agreement] through without a firm
understanding with the regime and without clear understanding of what
the ‘or else’ is?”
Since May, the Russians have failed to persuade Iranian-backed
militia groups or the Syrian regime to respect a “deconfliction zone”
that American commanders had declared near a U.S. outpost in
southeastern Syria. Although U.S. officers informed their Russian
counterparts about the zone around Tanf, Iranian-backed militias and
Syrian fighter jets ignored the warning and moved toward U.S. special
operations forces and their Syrian Kurdish and Arab allies. As a result,
U.S. aircraft shot down a Syrian fighter jet and an Iranian-made drone
and struck Iranian-backed militias in the area.
Given the track record so far, “Why should we believe that it will be
different under this cease-fire?” one congressional staffer asked.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Bahram Qasemi, reacted
coolly to the pact, saying it contained some “ambiguities” and that “no
agreement would be successful without taking the realities on the
ground into account.”
“Iran is seeking Syria’s sovereignty and security so a cease-fire
cannot be limited to a certain location,” Qasemi was quoted saying by
Tasnim News Agency.
Not everyone was so pessimistic. Andrew Tabler, a fellow at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said southwestern Syria’s
relative calm — and Washington’s continued influence among U.S.-trained
opposition factions fighting President Bashar al-Assad — make it a
natural proving ground for U.S. and Russian cooperation.
If successful, such cooperation could be employed in other parts of
the country. “I think it’s worth a try,” Tabler said. “If we’re going to
test something, this is a good place to test it.”
The pact — detailed in a Memorandum of Principle for De-escalation in
Southern Syria — established a cease-fire between Syrian government
forces and armed opposition groups that came into force on Sunday. It
calls for transforming southern Syria below Quneitra and Suwayda into an
exclusion zone for fighters of “non-Syrian origin,” including Iranian
troops, their proxies, and fighters linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic
State, which have a limited presence in the area.
“This could be designed mainly to reassure the Israelis that these
elements would not be operating in proximity to the Golan Heights,” said
Hof, who is now at the Atlantic Council.
The accord calls for maintaining existing governance and security
arrangements in opposition-held areas in southwestern Syria, a provision
aimed at dissuading Syrian government forces from retaking territory in
the area. But some observers said the arrangement could also help turn a
de facto partition of southern Syria into a permanent one. “This
entrenches Syria’s partition further,” one diplomatic observer said.
The accord also calls for the unimpeded access for humanitarian aid
workers and for the creation of conditions for the return of refugees
from southwestern Syria. Jordan has received more than 650,000
registered Syrian refugees since the conflict began more than six years
ago.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Monday the
establishment of a monitoring center in Jordan, but State Department
spokeswoman Heather Nauert declined to confirm any specifics. “Mr.
Lavrov likes to talk a lot,” she said.
A State Department official told FP
that the United States and Russia are still trying to work out the
details of the pact, “including how to monitor the cease-fire, the rules
that would govern the southwest de-escalation area, and the presence of
monitors.”
“We are looking at various options for the monitoring arrangement in
which information can be exchanged and violations resolved,” the
official said.
When asked if she was optimistic about the cease-fire holding, Nauert
demurred. “Perhaps optimism is too strong a word. But I think it is
promising, in a certain sense, we have been able to get the cease-fire
underway,” she said.
The White House did not respond to queries about the cease-fire deal.
The agreement — finalized following Trump’s recent meeting with
Russian President Vladimir Putin — calls for more coordination among the
former Cold War superpowers in the fight against terrorists in Syria.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that the pact may serve as a
model for further cooperation in northern Syria and provides the “first
indication of the U.S. and Russia being able to work together in Syria.”
It also marked a recognition by Moscow that a separate effort to
negotiate a cease-fire in Astana, Kazakhstan, with Iran and Turkey was
foundering. On May 4, the three powers signed an agreement to establish
four so-called “de-escalation zones” throughout Syria. But they have
been unable to agree on whose forces would monitor those cease-fires.
“Not necessarily a brilliant deal for the Russians,” one diplomatic
source said. “I suspect that after the humiliating failure of Astana,
Putin needed a ‘success’ to announce and divert attention from Astana
failure.”
The cease-fire would be overseen by officials from the United States,
Russia, and Jordan at a monitoring cell in Amman, Jordan. Israel is not
a formal party to the pact but has been actively involved behind the
scenes in the discussions leading up to the agreement.
Hof said the provision for a joint monitoring center resembles a plan
put forward by former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to coordinate
efforts to confront extremists in northwestern Syria. “[U.S. Central
Command] was very, very, very skeptical about that when it was first
proposed,” Hof said. “They feared being hoodwinked by the Russians into
some kind of attack on an urban area that would produce massive civilian
casualties.”
In fact, it appears that the military was not consulted this time around. On Monday, BuzzFeed News reported that top Pentagon officials were not involved in the planning or briefed on their role in the arrangement.
A military officer confirmed to FP
that the Pentagon and Centcom have very little information about the
proposed cease-fire and said, “We’re getting to that level of
understanding this week.”
American aircraft rarely operate in southwestern Syria, but “we’ll
certainly respect the cease-fire,” the officer said, adding that the
U.S. military hasn’t decided if it would fly combat air patrols to
enforce any agreement.
The more likely situation would see a “remote” monitoring agreement,
where U.S. military personnel would sit together with Russian officers
at the proposed facility in Amman, the officer said, though “we have to
figure out exactly what it means, and we have to figure out what the
terms of reference are between the Russians and us and if the Syrians
are even a party to it.”
U.S. troops won’t be working directly with Iranians or Syrians,
however. “Our operating assumption is if the Iranians and Syrians will
want to be informed, the Russians are going to be the intermediary on
all things,” the officer said.
“The United States remains committed to defeating ISIS, helping to
end the conflict in Syria, reducing suffering, and enabling people to
return to their homes,” Trump’s national security advisor, H.R.
McMaster, said last Friday, referring to the Islamic State. “This
agreement is an important step toward these common goals.”
But questions lingered about its workability.
The region is occupied by several armed opposition groups backed by
the United States, Turkey, Jordan, and Persian Gulf states and also
includes small pockets of forces loyal to al Qaeda and the Islamic
State. The United States exercises little influence over such extremist
groups, making them potential spoilers.
On July 9, Trump tweeted that the Syrian cease-fire seems to be
holding. For Moscow, the pact placed Putin in the role of peacemaker,
even as Russia continued to provide air support for Syrian offensive
operations.
“This is a sop for Russia,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria
scholar at the University of Oklahoma. “The Americans can’t police this
situation.”
Photo credit: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images
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Syrian Cease-Fire Is
a Baby Step Toward Peace
A fragile truce in the southwest is a good omen for U.S. interests.
by
7
Photographer: Mohamad Abazeed/AFP/Getty Images
After years of horrific fighting in Syria -- including
several failed cease-fires -- it's hard to get too excited about a
limited agreement to stop hostilities in a tiny corner of the country.
Yet the modest "de-escalation" deal in Syria's southwest is a promising
sign.
Islamic State is not yet defeated. But the cease-fire,
reached by Jordan, Russia and the U.S., is an indication that the end of
that fight is near, as all sides are beginning to jockey for position
in the next stage of the Syrian civil war.
The halt in the
fighting in parts of three provinces, reached earlier this month, seems
to be mostly holding. The next steps of the deal, which reportedly
include the departure of non-Syrian fighters, providing humanitarian
aid to civilians, and setting up a monitoring center in Jordan, are
pending.
Still, what has already been achieved is notable. Russia --
Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's most powerful backer -- has cut an
independent deal with the U.S. that will not just give rebel troops a
respite but also help protect Israel and Jordan, two of America's most
important Middle East allies. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to
have hammered out the truce
without giving the Syrian regime or its Iranian patrons a say. And this
despite the fact that Iranian-backed militias had been making military inroads in southern Syria.
The
area covered in the de-escalation agreement includes the rebel
stronghold of Deraa Province, which is within 50 miles of the Jordanian
capital of Amman and is adjacent to the Golan Heights, which Israel has
considered a crucial buffer zone since conquering it in the 1967 war.
The deal will be help keep Iran and its proxies from gaining too close a
foothold to Israel and Jordan.
A piecemeal approach to cease-fires has its
downsides. It may undermine the fitful negotiations to end the civil war
that are now taking place in Kazakhstan, and the Assad regime may use
this opportunity to strategically reposition forces at other
battlefronts (the Syrians seem to have an eye
on the oil-rich Euphrates River Valley near the Iraq border). And the
deal relies on the questionable assumption that the Russians will be
able to rein in aggression by the Syrian army its allies.
Secretary
of State Rex Tillerson noted that the pact is the "first indication of
the U.S. and Russia being able to work together in Syria." As
distasteful as it sounds, cooperation with the Kremlin may be the best
hope for an enduring political solution to the civil war -- and for
ensuring that Islamic State won't rise again.
To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg View’s editorials: David Shipley at
davidshipley@bloomberg.net
.
Andrew J. Tabler
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/view/tabler-andrew-j
Martin J. Gross Fellow
Tel: 202-230-9550 (media inquiries only) 202-452-0650 (all other inquiries)
press@washingtoninstitute.org
press@washingtoninstitute.org
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross fellow in the Program on Arab
Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S.
policy in the Levant.
Areas of Expertise
Biography
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Mr. Tabler achieved unparalleled long-term access to Bashar al-Assad's
Syria. During fourteen years of residence in the Middle East, Mr. Tabler
served as co-founder and editor-in-chief of Syria Today,
Syria's first private-sector English-language magazine; as a consultant
on U.S.-Syria relations for the International Crisis Group (2008); and
as a fellow of the Institute of Current World Affairs (2005-2007),
writing on Syrian, Lebanese, and Middle Eastern affairs. Following his
graduate work in Cairo, Egypt, Mr. Tabler held editorships with the Middle East Times and Cairo Times,
where he focused on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations, before becoming
senior editor and director of editorial for the Oxford Business Group
(OBG). In 2001, Mr. Tabler personally oversaw with OBG the first
comprehensive English-language report on Syria in more than thirty
years. Mr. Tabler has lived, worked and studied extensively in Egypt,
Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.
Mr. Tabler has interviewed Syrian first lady Asma al-Assad, the late
Israeli president Shimon Peres, the late Palestinian president Yasser
Arafat, slain Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, and former Lebanese
prime ministers Fouad Siniora and Saad Hariri. His articles and opinion
pieces on Middle East affairs and U.S. foreign policy have appeared in
the New York Times, the New York Times Magazine, the International Herald Tribune, Newsweek, Foreign Policy, and Foreign Affairs. He has also appeared in interviews with CNN, NBC, CBS, PBS, NPR, and the BBC.
Mr. Tabler is author of "Syria's Collapse and How Washington Can Stop It" (Foreign Affairs, July-August 2013) and the 2011 book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria (Lawrence Hill Books).
Education
M.A., comparative politics, American University in Cairo (AUC);
Certificate, Arabic Language Institute, AUC; B.A., Washington &
Jefferson College
Languages Spoken / Read
- Arabic
Apa Yang Sebenarnya Terjadi Di Suriah? (1)
Hai orang-orang yang beriman hendaklah
kamu jadi orang-orang yang selalu menegakkan (kebenaran) karena Allah,
menjadi saksi dengan adil. dan janganlah sekali-kali kebencianmu
terhadap sesuatu kaum, mendorong kamu untuk berlaku tidak adil. Berlaku
adillah, karena adil itu lebih dekat kepada takwa. dan bertakwalah kepada Allah, sesungguhnya Allah Maha mengetahui apa yang kamu kerjakan. (QS Al-Maaidah: 8)
Sesuai dengan amanat Tuhan yang
disampaikan melalui kitab suci-Nya saya mencoba menjabarkan mengenai
permasalahan yang terjadi di negri nun jauh disana dengan se-objektif
mungkin, Suriah.
Sebagian besar dari kita mungkin hanya
“pernah dengar” tentang negara ini dan tidak pernah ada yang benar benar
memperhatikan keberadaan negara ini pra 2011.
Apa yang terjadi di tahun 2011? Twitter,
Facebook dan berbagai media sosial menjadikan gerakan penggulingan
terhadap beberapa penguasa absolut timur tengah menjadi massif dan telah
berhasi merontokkan kekuasaan beberapa pemimpin di timur tengah yaitu
Ben Ali dari Tunisia, Khadafi dari Libya, Husni Mubarak dari Mesir dan
Ali Abdullah Saleh dari Yaman. Di beberapa negara lain protes tidak
berlangsung penuh kekerasan dan beberapa “hanya” menghasilkan reformasi
di pemerintahan.
sumber gambar : Wikipedia
Arab spring tidak berlangsung
mulus, Tunisia sejauh ini berhasil mempertahankan demokrasi hasil dari
proses transisi tersebut. Libya yang tadinya merupakan negeri yang aman
dan kaya menjadi jatuh kedalam jurang perang saudara. Yaman juga jatuh
kedalam perang saudara yang diperparah dengan intervensi negara negara
teluk seperti Saudi Arabia, Uni Emirates dan lain lain.
Mesir, kekuasaan
Husni Mubarak yang merupakan diktator ex-militer digantikan oleh
pemerintahan Muhammad Mursi yang merupakan calon usungan Ikhwanul
Muslimin yang terpilih secara demokratis, Mursi digulingkan saat
pemerintahannya baru seumur satu tahun lebih sedikit dan digantikan oleh
seorang diktator ex militer lagi, Abdel fatah Al-sisi. Penggulingan
Mursi menimbulkan korban ribuan orang, sungguh sangat sangat mengerikan.
Sumber gambar : washingtonpost.com
Jadi dari gambaran diatas jelas bahwa fenomena Arab Spring bukanlah
sesuatu yang dipicu oleh urusan agama apalagi merupakan perang antar
mazhab, sekali lagi bukan. pemicu utamanya adalah rasa frustasi atas
himpitan ekonomi yang di perparah oleh himpitan politis dari para
diktator timur tengah yang mengekang kebebasan berekspresi. Bisa
disaksikan sendiri mayoritas negara yang mengalami Arab Spring adalah negara-negara timur tengah yang ekonominya kurang maju kecuali Libya.
Masuk ke Suriah…
Saya tidak mengambil posisi seperti para
penulis lain di seword maupun diluaran yang memihak salah satu pihak
secara 100% karena menurut saya dalam konflik politik apalagi perang,
semua memegang beban tanggung jawab terhadap apa yang terjadi.
sekali lagi mari kita lupakan aliran apa
dan mazhab apa yang sedang bertarung karena sebagaimana yang telah saya
jabarkan di atas, Arab Spring adalah akumulasi dari konflik ekonomi dan politik yang meledak disebabkan oleh sosial media.
Banyak pendukung Assad di Indonesia yang
mengatakan “harus menghormati pilihan rakyat karena Assad dipilih oleh
sebagian besar rakyat!” tapi mereka lupa bahwa pemilihan di
negara-negara absolut sangat penuh dengan rekayasa. oposisi tidak
diberikan panggung dan kecurangan terjadi secara terstruktur sistematis
dan massif untuk memenangkan penguasa yang sedang berkuasa. Indonesia
pun pernah mengalami masa seperti itu dan perkataan “harus menghormati
pilihan rakyat karena Assad dipilih oleh sebagian besar rakyat!” sama
saja mengatakan reformasi 1998 di Indonesia merupakan gerakan ilegal
karena waktu itu Soeharto juga dipilih oleh sebagian besar rakyat
Indonesia yang diwakili oleh MPR.
Saya sepakat bahwa demonstrasi seharusnya
tidak boleh sedikitpun dihadapi dengan peluru tajam apalagi sampai
menimbulkan korban meninggal, satu saja korban tewas rasanya sudah
terlalu besar harganya dibandingkan sebuah kekuasaan.
Bung Karno telah memberikan contoh sangat
mulia ketika kekuasaannya digulingkan dan beliau dijadikan tahanan
rumah. Banyak angkatan-angkatan perang dan rakyat yang siap mati
berperang untuk mempertahankan posisi Bung Karno tetapi beliau lebih
memilih turun dari jabatannya karena rasa cinta beliau yang sangat besar
kepada rakyat Indonesia dan tidak mau ada darah rakyat Indonesia yang
tertumpah hanya untuk mempertahankan kekuasaannya.
Seluruh pemimpin di dunia termasuk Assad
seharusnya wajib melakukan seperti apa yang dilakukan oleh Bung Karno
karena nyawa seorang manusia jauh lebih berharga daripada kekuasaan
seperti apapun.
sumber gambar : cnn.com
Apa Yang Sebenarnya Terjadi
Di Suriah (2)
https://seword.com/luar-negeri/apa-yang-sebenarnya-terjadi-di-suriah-2/
Sambungan dari bagian 1…
sumber gambar : bbc.co.uk
Disinilah komplikasi tersebut terjadi,
sebuah rezim kuat dengan salah satu militer terkuat di timur tengah
berhadapan dengan kekuatan oposisi yang di back up oleh beberapa negara
asing baik secara pendanaan maupun persenjataan.
Keadaan ini juga diperparah dengan
retorika para orang-orang yang “menyalahgunakan agama dalam politik”
yang memainkan isu SARA. inilah kengerian penggunaan isyu SARA yang
sering di wanti wanti oleh para tokoh bangsa dan penulis penulis di
dalam maupun di luar seword. Agama itu merupakan sebuah senjata maha
kuat yang bisa menggerakkan ratusan ribu bahkan jutaan orang untuk rela
mati tanpa bayaran sedikitpun.
Dalam versi resmi, Assad merupakan
penganut Syiah Alawiyah (saya tahu ada beberapa orang yang mengatakan
Assad itu Sunni tetapi saya mengambil versi resmi yang beredar di
berbagai website kredibel). penganut Syiah alawiyah bukan merupakan
mayoritas di Suriah sehingga penggunaan isyu SARA sangatlah efektif,
kita bisa lihat contoh kecilnya di Pilkada DKI Jakarta. Oleh para
oposisi politik Assad, isyu politik ini diusahakan berubah menjadi isyu
agama sehingga seolah olah yang terjadi adalah perang Sunni vs Syiah
dengan harapan para oposisi POLITIK tersebut mendapatkan dukungan dari
masyarakat luas baik dari dalam negri maupun dari khalayak
Internasional. Contohnya di Indonesia, para “santri” dadakan yang
belajar ngaji dari Google dan Ustadz seleb akan selalu membawa-bawa isyu
perang mazhab jika berbicara tentang konflik suriah. padahal Arab Spring terjadi sama sekali tidak mengenal agama dan aliran apapun.
untuk kaum sumbu pendek dan bumi datar
yang kebetulan membaca artikel ini saya tidak mau membahas persoalan
mazhab di artikel ini, silahkan googling sendiri “risalah Amman” atau
“Amman Message”.
Kenapa banyak kekuatan internasional yang terlibat?
sumber gambar : The New York Times
Mungkin para pembaca seword telah membaca
dari berbagai sumber lain yang mencoba menjelaskan ini, dari mulai pipa
minyak dan posisi strategis dan semacamnya. tetapi yang paling jelas
disini adalah perebutan pengaruh. Iran memback up Assad karena Assad
merupakan satu satunya sekutu Iran di timur tengah, alasan yang sama
juga yang menyebabkan Turki, Saudi dan negara negara teluk lainnnya
begitu ngotot untuk menumbangkan Assad, untuk melumpuhkan kekuatan Iran.
Rezim Assad dan ayahnya juga merupakan
satu satunya sekutu historis yang sangat dekat dengan Rusia di Timur
Tengah sehingga Rusia membacking Assad “at all cost”. support dari Rusia
merupakan alasan paling utama kenapa Assad masih bisa bertahan
menghadapi perang brutal selama 6 tahun terakhir ini.
Amerika berkepentingan untuk melemahkan
posisi Rusia di timur tengah yang mana Suriah merupakan satu satunya
negara yang memiliki pangkalan militer Rusia di Timur Tengah.
yang jadi korban utama dari percaturan
besar kekuatan-kekuatan internasional ini adalah warga sipil Suriah yang
terjebak diantara kehancuran yang maha mengerikan dan kematian.
Ada solusi?
Solusi yang terbaik adalah semua pihak
segera meletakkan senjata dan saling bahu membahu membangun kembali
negara yang sudah hancur porak poranda. tetapi kita tahu otak manusia
tidak bekerja seperti itu. sulit, sangat sulit karena milyaran, mungkin
trilyunan dollar telah dikucurkan untuk “percaturan” ini sehingga
menyerah kalah bukanlah pilihan. berbagai pihak sudah habis habisan
dalam berusaha merebut kemenangan di Suriah. di dalam benak para pihak
yang terlibat dalam konflik ini pastilah tertanam fikiran : “aku tidak
sampai sejauh ini hanya untuk sampai sejauh ini”, KAMI HARUS MENANG.
padahal konflik ini sudah sangat
mengerikan dan jauh dari manusiawi lagi, ratusan ribu orang yang tewas
bukan hanya angka, tiap tiap orang yang tewas adalah nyawa nyawa yang
mencintai dan dicintai oleh keluarga dan teman temannya. inilah mengapa
saya selalu menekankan damai itu WAJIB, perang itu HARUS dihindari
apapun alasannya.
Masa depan Suriah…
A
general view of damaged buildings in Jouret al-Shayah, Homs February 2,
2013. Picture taken on February 2, 2013. REUTERS/Yazen Homsy (SYRIA –
Tags: CONFLICT POLITICS CIVIL UNREST)
BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE – RTR3DAR3
BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE – RTR3DAR3
Sekali lagi tanpa memandang agama dan
aliran apapun, satu satunya kemungkinan Suriah akan damai dalam waktu
dekat adalah kemenangan Assad. karena beberapa negara hasil Arab Spring dan
Irak pasca Saddam telah membuktikan bahwa runtuhnya suatu rezim justru
akan membawa kekacauan yang lebih besar karena menghilangkan sebuah
kekuatan besar yang mengontrol semua dan menyisakan kekuatan kekuatan
yang saling bersaing untuk merebut kekuasaan tertinggi dengan cara
apapun. Bisa saja jatuhnya Assad adalah keinginan sebagian orang tetapi
sejarah membuktikan jika itu yang terjadi, perang masih akan berlangsung
berkepanjangan dan rakyat sipil yang akan terus menjadi korban
utamamanya.
benarlah peringatan Allah dan Rasulnya
bahwa taat kepada pemerintah merupakan sesuatu yang sangat penting
selama pemerintah tersebut tidak memerintahkan kepada kemaksiatan.
“Hai orang-orang yang beriman, ta’atilah Allah dan ta’atilah Rasul (Nya), dan ulil amri di antara kamu.” (QS. An Nisa’ [4] : 59)
hadits Nabi shallallahu ‘alaihi wa sallam dari Hudzaifah bin Al Yaman :
“Nanti setelah aku akan ada seorang
pemimpin yang tidak mendapat petunjukku (dalam ilmu, pen) dan tidak pula
melaksanakan sunnahku (dalam amal, pen). Nanti akan ada di
tengah-tengah mereka orang-orang yang hatinya adalah hati setan, namun
jasadnya adalah jasad manusia. “
Aku berkata, “Wahai Rasulullah, apa yang harus aku lakukan jika aku menemui zaman seperti itu?”
Beliau bersabda, ”Dengarlah dan ta’at kepada pemimpinmu, walaupun mereka menyiksa punggungmu dan mengambil hartamu. Tetaplah mendengar dan ta’at kepada mereka.” (HR. Muslim no. 1847)
“Saya memberi wasiat kepada kalian
agar tetap bertaqwa kepada Allah ‘azza wa jalla, tetap mendengar dan
ta’at walaupun yang memerintah kalian seorang hamba sahaya (budak)”. (HR. Abu Daud dan At Tirmidzi, Hadits Hasan Shahih)
Dari perbatasan provinsi Jakarta dan Banten ini saya bercurah pendapat…
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BalasHapus
BalasHapusMohon maaf jika postingan ini menyinggung perasaan anda semua tapi saya hanya mau menceritakan pengalaman pribadi saya yang mengubah kehidupan saya menjadi sukses. Perkenalkan terlebih dahulu saya Artanti Tanti biasa di panggil Anti, TKI tinggal di kota Pontian johor Malaysia,Saya berprofesi sebagai pembantu rumah tangga, tapi saya tidak menyerah dengan keadaan saya, tetap ikhtiar.
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Mbah Suro....